I need a pick-me-up. THE WIFE is out of town this week and will not return until the tail end of the weekend. The son (that loves sports – hopefully) can be a bit of a handful at times. Coffee’s attempt to save me failed. The caffeine was simply laughed at by all the z’s that I could not catch. Perhaps my Week 5 NFL Picks can serve as an energy boost. I suppose that is always a possibility, even though my opening four weeks have been iffy at times.
Fortunately, my parents live nearby and have been a big help (thanks Mom, I know you’re reading).
OK, quite honestly, it has been fun taking care of him and spending time with him. THE WIFE deserves a break to get away. I honestly think the hardest part is the adjustment to the early hours of kindergarten, which the kid started a few weeks back.
My alarm goes off and my subconscious laughs in its face.
Then it sounds off again, like the high-pitch squealing of a car with shoddy brake pads.
By the middle of the day, I’m walking around like a character on World War Z or The Walking Dead. If coffee will not save me, perhaps humor will – and since I don’t want humor to exist in my Week 5 NFL picks, then how about some other kinds of humor?
Dad jokes for my single Dad week – that’s perfect!
I’m glad you thought of it.
Dad Jokes from a Temporary Single Dad
Why did the scarecrow win an award?
Because he was outstanding in his field.
Insert “golf clap” here.
I don’t trust those trees, son.
Son: What? Why not?
They seem kinda shady.
Insert nod of approval here.
If a child refuses to sleep during nap time, are they guilty of resisting a rest?
I can relate to that one.
I’m reading a book about anti-gravity. It’s impossible to put down!
That joke was out of this world.
Did you know the first French fries weren’t actually cooked in France? They were cooked in Greece.
Man, now I’m kinda hungry.
MOM: “How do I look?”
DAD: With your eyes.”
I’d either get smacked or get the eye roll if I delivered that one.
KID: “Dad, make me a sandwich!”
DAD: “Poof, you’re a sandwich.”
I told that one to my son and he actually laughed. I guess that’s why they call them “dad jokes”.
What do you call a dog that can do magic? A Labracadabrador.
That one might have been his favorite. So much, he made me add it to this list.
When you ask a dad if he’s alright: “No, I’m half left.”
OK, I think you’ve had enough… for now.
Let’s get back to football, shall we? KP’s Week 5 NFL Picks are in and I’m due for a monster week. This week’s selections against the spread are based off the lines presented via CBS Sports:
KP’s “No Laughing Matter” Week 5 NFL Picks
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-1.5)
Do we need to question the Rams defense after the Bucs posted a franchise record 55 points against them last week? Not to the extent that some may think. L.A. has very few players on the injury report, leaving a healthy roster with plenty of playmakers on both sides of the ball. Seattle, meanwhile, will again try to establish the run game and keep the Rams offense off the field. My gut says the Rams rebound, despite playing in front of the 12th Man (and last week’s performance). I checked The Football Database, which also tells me the Rams have won 3 of the last 4 games in Seattle and that was all I needed. RAMS win outright on the road.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5)
Sorry Pittsburgh, a blowout victory over the lowly Bengals is not something that will get us all that excited. A step in the right direction, but that’s about it. Baltimore, meanwhile, posted a surprisingly sub-par performance at home versus the Browns. This division is going to be interesting. One team is going to win it in ugly fashion. Speaking of ugly fashion, this rivalry is exactly that. Low-scoring, defensive battles are the norm. According to The Football Database, the Steelers have actually won four of the last five games in this rivalry. A few of the recent games have been fairly high scoring as well (e.g. December 2017 – Steelers 39, Ravens 38). Finally, JuJu, Vance and James Conner are all questionable at this point in the week, which is a concern for Pittsburgh. Like the Rams, I like Baltimore to bounce back in Week 5. There’s just too much talent on offense. Give me the RAVENS to cover on the road.
Atlanta Falcons at Houston Texans (-5)
Last week featured another far from elite performance by DeAndre Hopkins. That makes three straight games that Hopkins has failed to pass the 70-yard mark. Will that continue against an Atlanta defense that is ranked 7th against the pass? It depends. We aren’t looking at an elite corner situation and the Falcons have lost a lot of safety depth, leaving a lack of help in the secondary. This could mean a re-emergence of Hopkins and the Houston passing game. In a game that looks like it could be a shootout, give me the TEXANS to win at home by a touchdown.
New York Jets at Philadelphia Eagles (-14)
When will Sam Darnold return from mono? He returned to practice this week, but it’s said his playing status will not be decided until Sunday. That makes it difficult to predict how the Jets will do. Chris Herndon returns from suspension, which adds an additional weapon for Falk (or Darnold). Coming off a bye week, New York has had plenty of time to rest and prepare for this game. Falk was 20-25 against the Browns a few weeks back, which is a positive. New York only scored three points in the game, but you can throw on this Philadelphia defense. There are a lot of open questions on this game, but in the end, my gut says New York hangs around through three quarters. If Darnold plays, that could be all four quarters. Eagles win, but give me the JETS and the points.
Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants (+5.5)
Will public comments by Thielen and Diggs result in more passing plays by the Vikings? My gut says yes. It also depends on the opponent and opposing defense. The Giants are 25th against the pass and 19th against the run. The Minnesota offense should focus on balance, but they still will likely give each team a heavy dose of Dalvin Cook as long as he’s healthy. Either way, the overall talent of the Vikings should wear down rookie Daniel Jones and the New York offense. Having Golden Tate back will help, but it won’t be enough. VIKINGS cover on the road.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Carolina Panthers (-3.5)
Heading into the season, many circled this matchup on the calendar because of the Nick Foles – Cam Newton headline. Now we get Gardner Minshew versus Kyle Allen, which surprisingly may be even better. Someone I know mentioned a random stat they heard on Allen, that he had been sacked five times this season, all of which resulted in fumbles. I haven’t stat checked that, but it is pretty eye-opening if true. The Jags, meanwhile, are 6th in the NFL in sacks (13 total), so Allen will need to protect the ball better in this game. Then, there’s the legend of Gardner Minshew, which continues to grow. In the end, Minshew continues to make plays and keep his team in games. While I think the Panthers win this game, my gut says it will come down to a late field goal. Give me the JAGUARS and the points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
Will the real Tampa Bay Buccaneers please stand up? Fifty-five points against the Rams? Seriously? How about the Saints, a team that shut down the high-powered Dallas offense? Which one feels like more of an outlier? Perhaps the answer to that question is “neither”. In the end, for this week, it is really hard to go into the Superdome and win. I’ll take the SAINTS to cover at home.
Chicago Bears at Oakland Raiders (+4.5)
Injuries are the story for both teams. Examples with Oakland: Tyrell Williams and Josh Jacobs are both questionable, while Vontaze Burfict has been suspended for the rest of the season. In Chicago, Mitch Trubisky is out and there are a number of players banged up on both the offensive and defensive lines. In the end, it comes down to talent and the Bears are beastly on defense. Chase Daniel also can manage this offense while Mitch is out. Give me the BEARS to cover on the road.
Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans (-3)
Is Josh Allen going to play in this game? He is currently questionable with a concussion. If not, Matt Barkley takes over the Buffalo offense. Whether he does or not, the focus on this game is going to be on defense, where Buffalo is 4th in pass defense and 7th in rush defense while the Titans are 14th and 15th, respectively. The defenses should shut down each offense making this a low-scoring battle. The game still comes back to Allen’s ability to play. He adds an extra dimension in the ground game that Barkley does not have. My gut says he will not be ready for the game and therefore give me the TITANS to win and cover at home.
New England Patriots at Washington Redskins (+15.5)
Jay Gruden still has a job, but that may not be the case after this weekend. We said that last weekend, too. Bill Belichick is on record complimenting the Washington offense and its quarterbacks. Then again, that’s what we typically expect from most coaches in weekly press conferences. The New England defense is dominating, ranking second in pass defense, allowing 181.8 ypg. More impressive is the pass D allowing zero touchdowns with ten interceptions. Toss in a run defense also ranked second in the NFL (61.2 ypg) and it’s hard to imagine these Redskins QB’s looking all that impressive. Oh, let’s not forget the New England defense that is tied for the league lead with 18 sacks. Yes, it’ll be another long day for a Washington OL that has failed to protect the quarterback and desperately misses Trent Williams (holdout) and Brandon Scherff (ankle). PATRIOTS cover easily.
Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5)
The Bengals have gone backwards since a competitive opening week loss in Seattle. Joe Mixon and the offensive line have struggled to generate a consistent run game. A.J. Green has yet to play in a game and now John Ross is out. An already anemic offense will now look to younger inexperienced players to get consistent production. On Arizona’s side, it has been an up and down season, but it’s hard to ignore how much more talent Arizona has right now. Pick the CARDINALS and the points with confidence.
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5)
Injuries keep piling up for the Chargers – and on both sides of the ball, too. The offense has taken the bigger hit, but Philip Rivers still has Keenan Allen in the pass game and now gets Melvin Gordon back in the running game. Denver has had next to no pass rush this season and now loses Bradley Chubb for the entire season with an ACL injury. While I typically like to research division rivalry results in recent seasons, it is hard to ignore the facts here. Both teams are really banged up, but the Broncos are 0-4 and likely to struggle to get a consistent pass rush on Rivers. Therefore, CHARGERS cover.
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5)
The first key to this game is the health of Davante Adams. Will he play or won’t he play? We saw what happened to the Packers down the stretch without Adams. The second key is whether the Green Bay defensive line can improve following last week’s manhandling at the hands of the Philadelphia O-line. Dallas also has a strong offensive line and Ezekiel Elliott running the ball. While I typically would pick the Packers in this type of situation, I worry about the health of Adams and Green Bay’s ability to stop the run. If the Cowboys feature a run heavy game plan, I think Dallas wins. Bank on a smart plan by Kellen Moore and give me the COWBOYS to cover.
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5)
Injuries are crushing the Colts right now. T.Y. Hilton (quad) missed last week and is questionable, Clayton Geathers (concussion) is questionable and Darius Leonard (concussion) also could miss another week. The list goes on from there, including Marlon Mack, who is questionable although many feel he will play. The risks are there facing Kansas City’s top rated passing offense (373 ypg) on the road. Detroit gave K.C. a run, but its pass defense has allowed just 4 TD’s through the air, while the Colts have allowed nine and could be without both of its starting safeties (Malik Hooker and Clayton Geathers). Expect Patrick Mahomes to feast and give me the CHIEFS at home.
Cleveland Browns at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
The undefeated Niners come off a bye with a chance to get healthy, while the Browns attempt to build momentum following a shocking blowout road win against the Ravens. This is a tricky one for me. San Francisco is at home and has an underrated pass defense that has as many picks as TD’s allowed. The Niners also have nine sacks through three games. Let’s not forget that Baker Mayfield has been under pressure quite a lot this season. Still, the Browns managed a monstrous win against the Ravens last week. Has Cleveland turned the corner? I would typically lean Browns here, but Jarvis Landry is questionable with a concussion and the Cleveland secondary is still a bit banged up. That plus San Francisco has all the rest and prep time following the bye. Give me the 49ERS to cover at home.
BYE: Detroit Lions and Miami Dolphins
2019 NFL Season to Date (ATS)
Feel free to comment with either some of your picks or your thoughts on pet costumes. As always, thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!
Archive: 2018 NFL Season (ATS)