It hasn’t exactly been smooth sailing picking against the spread through the first six weeks – at least, not compared to previous years where I camped out well above the .500 mark. That’s when you just put your head down, get to work and churn out those NFL Week 7 selections.
“Don’t think that we don’t know
Don’t think that we’re not trying
Don’t think we move too slow
It’s no use after crying
Saying it’s a mistake
It’s a mistake
It’s a mistake
It’s a mistake
After the laughter has died away”
That’s what leads us to this week’s pop culture theme: classic rock, 80’s music and in my case, Men at Work. The above is from “It’s a Mistake”, likely an obscure reference to many, but a band my music-loving brain clamped down on during my childhood and never let go.
Do you have a band like that? As in, a random, obscure band that most people do not listen to and maybe you’d almost be embarrassed to admit still listening to? If so, I’d love to hear some stories.
For me, it’s Men at Work, although I’m not embarrassed to admit it. They are very nostalgic for me and when I have tough days, I’ll often go back to either of their two popular albums, Business As Usual and Cargo.
But enough of that for now, as this man has got to get to work on some high-quality picks.
Here are MY FIVE LOCKS for the week, with my NFL Week 7 WINNERS against the spread in RED:
KP’s Down-Over-Under NFL Week 7 Picks
FIVE – Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-6)
The level of man crushes on Pat Mahomes are growing by the week and rightfully so. The Kansas City QB is sixth in the NFL in passing yards (1,865) and first in passing TD’s (18).
“Infatuation, of knowing who you are
You and I, You and I, You and I,
Arrow through my heart,
Catch a star.”
Following a heartbreaking loss to the Patriots, Mahomes and the Chiefs return home to face the Bengals, who are 20th in the league in passing defense, while also allowing 11 TD’s through the air. You can certainly get to the KC defense, but Mahomes and the Chiefs are nearly impossible to shut down.
Give me the Chiefs to cover at home.
FOUR – Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets (+3)
The Jets are 7th in rushing offense, averaging 130.3 ypg and will face a Vikings defense that is 9th against the run. Minnesota is also fifth in total sacks, so the defensive pressure will be relentless against rookie QB Sam Darnold.
“Can’t you hear, can’t you hear the thunder
You better run, you better take cover.”
In the end, there’s just too much talent on Minnesota’s roster. Run, duck and cover, New York. Speaking of covering, that’s what the Vikings will do on the road.
THREE – Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts (-7.5)
Derek Anderson is starting for the Bills this weekend. The same Derek Anderson that has four starts since 2011. This is also the same Derek Anderson who has a career 54.1% completion percentage. He also has 60 career passing TD’s and 60 interceptions. Derek Anderson is starting for the Bills, a team that has allowed 24 sacks, third most in the NFL.
“Feel so washed up today
Haven’t really got much to say
Blood on the pillow on my bed
Explains the pain that’s in my head”
That’s the feeling that is coming. Couple that with Indy at home and Andrew Luck getting his favorite target back in T.Y. Hilton. I’ll take the Colts to cover at home.
TWO – New England Patriots at Chicago Bears (+3.5)
It’s becoming a trend. The Patriots start slow, leaving too many prognosticators to say this is finally the end for Belichick and Brady. Every year, New England responds. After a monstrous win over the Chiefs, the Patriots are clicking on all cylinders. Josh Gordon is finally heavily involved in the offense, taking a ton of snaps and adding a major dimension. Julian Edelman is back, too.
The Bears on the other end, have a strong defense and a continuously improving offense, plus home field advantage. Khalil Mack and Allen Robinson are both questionable (and banged up), which is a concern. In the end, it’s hard to ignore what the Patriots are doing right now. New England feels untouchable… again.
”Touching the untouchables but they don’t know
Respect the disrespectables, but in the end you know
You turn away, what can I say?”
Don’t turn away this time, because the Pats cover on the road in the Windy City.
ONE – New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)
We saw what the Saints are capable of offensively a few weeks back, when Drew Brees set the NFL passing record. New Orleans crushed an underrated Redskins defense and now travel to Baltimore to face another strong D. The Ravens have the #2 passing defense, holding opponents to 188 ypg. Baltimore also has a league-high 26 sacks this season. On the other side, the Saints have the top run defense (71.4 ypg), but that’s likely due to teams being forced to play catchup and throw the ball. The Saints have also allowed just eight sacks, so something has to give here.
Baltimore features the strong defense, yes, but New Orleans doesn’t just have the strong pass game, but also a two-headed monster in the backfield. Do we also really think that Joe Flacco can stick with Brees through four quarters? Toss in the New Orleans bye week and extra time to prepare, and it’ll be nowhere for the Ravens to hide.
“Don’t come in, I’ll only run and hide
Who can it be now?”
Who can it be now? Drew Brees, that’s who. The Saints and their many weapons win on the road.
2018 NFL Season to Date (ATS)
Don’t forget the SportsChump/KP/J-Dubs Pick ’em Contest!
Happy football – and as always, thanks for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!
Music Credits: Men at Work