NFL Week 5 continues tomorrow and let’s celebrate that with a Fletch edition of football picks against the spread.

After a 4-1 record during Week 4, I’m back to feeling pretty comfortable in my football pickin’ skin.

You should make yourself comfortable, too.

“I’m afraid I’m gonna have to pull rank on you. I didn’t want to have to do this. I’m with the Mattress Police. There are no tags on these mattresses.”

Don’t listen to him.  Also, avoid any advice from John Coxtolstoy, Mr. Poon and  Ted Nugent.

Seriously, kick your feet back and enjoy this week’s picks.

Here are MY FIVE LOCKS for the week, with my NFL Week 5 WINNERS against the spread in RED:

KP’s Identity Changing Picks for NFL Week 5

FIVE – Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills (+3.5)

“Can I borrow your towel for a sec? My car just hit a water buffalo.”

No, not the Buffalo Bills.  With drizzle in the forecast, there’s a possibility for sloppy conditions, plus the Titans are trending in the right direction, coming off a huge overtime win against the Eagles.  Marcus Mariota is getting healthier and playing better and with that, it may feel like that for the Bills. 

Give me the Titans to cover on the road… oh, and a fresh set of towels.

FOUR – Denver Broncos at New York Jets (-1)

Since a Week 1 thrashing of the Lions, the Jets have failed to score more than 17 points.  Sam Darnold has four picks over the last three weeks (all losses) and has failed to reach the 200-yard passing mark over the last two games. 

Plain and simple, these Jets need fixing – and ball bearings are obviously not the answer.  Home field may help, but let’s keep in mind that the Broncos were one errant pass away from knocking off Pat Mahomes and the red-hot Chiefs.

Give me the Broncos to win on the road.  Oh, and “wash those windows, they have filth muck on them.”

THREE – Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints (-6.5)

“Dr. Rosenrosen, I’m here to get to the records room.”

Major headlines brewing in this one, with Drew Brees knocking on NFL history’s door.

“It’s Dr. Rosen, I want to check the records room.”

Brees is just 200 yards away from the NFL’s career passing record, currently owned by Peyton Manning.

The expectation is that we will witness history on Monday night, but the Redskins – led by an underrated defense that is 3rd in total yards allowed – hope to keep Brees out of the record books.  While that seems unlikely, it should be noted that Washington is coming off a bye and has a solid offense of its own.

The Saints are 30th in passing defense, allowing 11 TD’s through the air with just one interception.  Alex Smith is very efficient and has plenty of time to prepare for this game.  

Give me the Redskins and the points – and a passing record for Drew Brees, too.

TWO – Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+1)

When the Packers play, it always comes down to two things: 1) Is the team, specifically Aaron Rodgers, healthy and 2) Will Clay Matthews get nailed on another brutal roughing the passer call?

“Well, I’m not even sure that’s a crime anymore. There’ve been a lot of changes in the law.”

Fletch is right, Clay… maybe you need to switch to flag football.

As for the game, the Packers are again bitten by the injury bug.  Rodgers will play, but Randall Cobb is out and Geronimo Allison (hamstring, concussion) may not play.  But will that prevent me from taking Rodgers in a tossup line against a division rival?  Nope.  Packers win.

ONE – Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5)

After a 3-0 start to the season, the Dolphins were thrashed in New England, which was accurately predicted here at TWHS.  It’s therefore right to question Miami following that performance.

The Bengals remain banged up in the run game.  Joe Mixon is slated to return, but now Giovani Bernard is out.  Andy Dalton will be facing a Miami defense that does give up yards through the air, but has a league-leading 9 INT’s and has held opposing QB’s to a 72.2 rating (only the Ravens are better).

With these facts in mind, I’m confident that the Dolphins will keep this game close.  If you’re not, then just make the bet and “put it on the Underhills’ bill“.

I’ll take the Dolphins and the points… plus “I’ll have a Bloody Mary and a steak sandwich and… a steak sandwich, please.”

 

2018 NFL Season to Date (ATS)

Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4

Don’t forget the SportsChump/KP/J-Dubs Pick ’em Contest!

 

Happy football – and as always, thanks for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!

Laughing Movie Credits: Fletch

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