Last year’s Florida stretch ended with the Honda Classic. This year’s event at PGA National opens the Florida swing, due to a PGA TOUR schedule adjustment. That means an earlier opportunity to eat bear claws while you watch professionals fall apart during “The Bear Claw” stretch. Yeah, maybe not. While the talent level doesn’t match last week’s Genesis Invitational, there are big names playing this week. Finding the right sleepers on DraftKings will also be key. This leads me to my PGA DFS 2022 Honda Sleepers, a list that outlines my favorite cheaper alternatives on DraftKings, as well as their long-shot odds to win. Each serves as an option to combine with any of the pricier DFS options of your choice.
Obviously the term “SLEEPER” can be interpreted in a number of different ways. In this case, it’s the lower cost players that stand out in key statistical areas, specifically the 6K Range on DraftKings.
Before I present this week’s picks, a few additional notes for PGA National:
- 2021 winner Matt Jones gained an insane 14.2 strokes Tee to Green and 5.9 strokes on Approach. He also gained 5.6 strokes Around the Green and 2.2 strokes Putting.
- During his 2020 victory at PGA National, Sungjae Im gained 12.3 strokes Tee to Green and 6.2 strokes on Approach. He also gained off the tee, around the green and putting.
- 2019 winner Keith Mitchell also gained in all major categories, including 11.9 Tee to Green, 6.1 on Approach and 3.5 Around the Green. That’s a similar trend to Sungjae Im.
- The course is littered with bunkers and water hazards, so considering stats tied to Scrambling or Sand Saves might be a good idea. Just don’t weigh them too significantly.
- Consider the fact that this is a Jack Nicklaus redesign, where Approach game is a major focus, as well as playing strategic shots into the green and managing to get up and down in difficult situations.
- Wind is often a factor at PGA National. I do check numbers tied to windy conditions and at difficult venues. This year’s weather forecast calls for windy conditions for the first two rounds, which could be an impact to players making the cut.
- If you like to consider pairings, here are the starting times for the opening two rounds of the tournament, as presented on Twitter by the PGA TOUR Communications account:
Groupings and starting times for the first and second rounds of The Honda Classic pic.twitter.com/EijgVaTQgo
— PGA TOUR Communications (@PGATOURComms) February 22, 2022
I ran a few models on Fantasy National and checked stats on the PGA TOUR website, with a primary focus tied to my favorite stats for the event. Based off that data, here are my top 6K range sleepers on DraftKings, accompanied by their odds to win the event (via DraftKings Sportsbook).
PGA DFS 2022 Honda Sleepers: 6K Range Plays on DraftKings
Ryan Armour (DK: $6,600, WINNER +20000, Top 5 +3500, Top 10 +1200)
The 45 year-old Armour could be a sneaky assist to your DraftKings lineups this week. No one is likely considering him. Armour recently finished T28 at Pebble Beach and T20 at the Sony Open. He made the cut here last year and has a T12 finish back in 2019. Over his last 36 rounds, Armour ranks 12th in the field in SG: Approach and 22nd in strokes gained on Par 4’s. This is a Par 70. Armour also ranks 10th in the field in GIR Gained. His putting numbers are also very solid (and better on Bermuda greens). Don’t be surprised if the veteran adds some Fantasy value into the weekend.
Kramer Hickok (DK: $6,800, WINNER +18000, Top 5 +3000, Top 10 +1200)
Hickok was inconsistent during the West Coast swing. He did have a T20 finish at the Sony Open. At the Honda Classic, Hickok has T21 and T30 finishes in his last two attempts. Overall, Kramer Hickok checks off a few unique boxes statistically. Over his last 36 rounds played, Hickok ranks 2nd in the field in Sand Saves Gained. PGA National is loaded with traps. He also cracks the top 25 in total strokes gained in windy conditions (also last 36 rounds). Hickok holds his own on difficult courses, too. He is an interesting play on DraftKings and likely someone that will not be highly owned.
Luke Donald (DK: $6,400, WINNER +25000, Top 5 +4000, Top 10 +1400)
Donald’s recent form is nothing to write home about. He has alternated missed cut with mediocre finish (T42 at Pebble Beach and T27 at the Sony Open). His form at the Honda Classic is similar, with a T11 finish in 2020 and a T27 in 2017. Donald has gained on approach in ten of his last thirteen measured events. That’s a plus for a course with a Jack Nicklaus influence. Over his last 36 rounds played (via Fantasy National), Luke Donald ranks 4th in the field in SG: Approach. He is also 27th in strokes gained on Par 4’s. He’s an interesting play, especially at this price point.
Nick Watney (DK: $6,600, WINNER +30000, Top 5 +4500, Top 10 +1800)
Where Watney has faltered in recent rounds is tied to windy conditions (he ranks 124th in the field in SG: Total Windy Conditions – last 36 rounds played). The current weather forecast calls for some windy conditions in the opening two rounds, but more calm conditions over the weekend. Watney ranks 11th in the field in GIR Gained (last 36 rounds). He is also 23rd in SG: Approach and 28th in Sand Saves. He hasn’t been great with the flat stick, but has fared best on Bermuda greens. Overall, Watney has lost strokes on approach in his last three events, so that will have to change for him to have any success. You never know at PGA National, considering he’s made four straight cuts here.
Mark Hubbard (DK: $6,900, WINNER +13000, Top 5 +2000, Top 10 +700)
Hubbard is a sneaky good sleeper for this event. Over his last 36 rounds (via Fantasy National), he ranks 14th in the field in SG: Approach, 4th in Sand Saves Gained, and 17th in total strokes gained in windy conditions. Hubbard is also 36th in the field in SG: Putting. He has made the cut here in back-to-back years, including a T11 finish in 2020. A T33 finish at Pebble Beach at least is putting him in a positive direction after missing two cuts prior to that event. He seems to be a popular sleeper this week.
Who do you have as your favorite PGA DFS 2022 Honda Sleepers on DraftKings?
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