The PGA TOUR season continues with the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship. Only, don’t expect to see “The Green Mile” or thousands of fans in Charlotte, North Carolina. This year’s Wells Fargo Championship will be played at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm (in Potomac, MD). The venue shift is due to Quail Hollow hosting the President’s Cup later this year. No matter where the location, there’s still a need to uncover the best bargains on DraftKings and via the odds. That brings me to my PGA DFS 2022 Wells Fargo Sleepers, a list that outlines my favorite cheaper alternatives on DraftKings, as well as their longshot odds to win via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Obviously the term “SLEEPER” can be interpreted in a number of different ways. In this case, it’s the lower cost players that stand out in key statistical areas, specifically $7,100 or less on DraftKings and a longshot of +10000 or greater on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Before I present this week’s picks, a few notes on TPC Potomac:
- The course hosted the Quicken Loans back in 2017 and 2018
- Considering the four-year absence, it’s hard to focus on recent course history
- The course does feature tree-lined fairways and small Bentgrass greens, leaving a focus for Driving Accuracy (Fairways Gained), Proximity, and strong GIR numbers
- SG: Off the Tee, SG: Approach, and SG: Ball Striking are also stats to focus on
- Considering the Par 70, Par 4 numbers are more important (especially the longer ones)
- If you like to consider pairings, here is the current list of starting times for the opening two rounds of the tournament, as presented on Twitter by the PGA TOUR Communications account:
Groupings and starting times for the first and second rounds of the Wells Fargo Championship pic.twitter.com/tzh9G6TuLs
— PGA TOUR Communications (@PGATOURComms) May 3, 2022
I ran multiple models on Fantasy National featuring my favorite statistical categories for the event. Based off that data, here are my favorite sleepers on DraftKings, accompanied by their current odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
PGA DFS 2022 Wells Fargo Sleepers: Bargains on DraftKings
Martin Laird (DK: $7,100, WINNER +13000, Top 5 +2000, Top 10 +900)
Laird ranks very high on the models that I ran this week. His last appearance resulted in a T29 finish at the Valero. Overall, he has putted poorly in recent weeks and also missed two cuts prior to the Valero. Despite that, he has gained strokes on approach in 11 of his last 12 measured events. That lands him 14th in the field over his last 24 rounds played, via Fantasy National. He also ranks 4th in the field in Fairways Gained and 8th in Par 4’s 450-500 yards. That will be key at TPC Potomac. Laird also ranks well in Proximity (24th), SG: Off the Tee (32nd), and GIR Gained (12th). He’s an intriguing play.
Nate Lashley (DK: $7,000, WINNER +15000, Top 5 +2500, Top 10 +1100)
Lashley has four top 20 finishes over his last six tournaments. That includes an 11th place finish last week at the Mexico Open and a top ten at Puerto Rico. He ranks in the middle of the pack in SG: Off the Tee over his last 24 rounds played, specifically 70th in the field. Outside of that, Lashley ranks 12th in total strokes gained, 6th in GIR Gained, 21st in SG: Par 4 450-500 yards, and 36th in SG: Approach. He limits his bogeys as of late and is on a pretty decent run. With an ability to hit plenty of fairways and greens in regulation, Lashley could very well make a strong run this week.
Tyler Duncan (DK: $6,900, WINNER +18000, Top 5 +3000, Top 10 +1400)
Duncan missed the cut last week, but finished 12th at the RBC Heritage last month. He has gained strokes on approach in four straight measured events. Duncan’s strength of late has been on the longer Par 4’s, ranking 2nd in the field on Par 4’s 450-500 yards in length (last 24 rounds, via Fantasy National). He also ranks 7th in Proximity, showcasing his ability to get hot with his irons. Duncan also is 12th in the field in Fairways Gained and ranks respectably in both SG: Approach and SG: Off the Tee. Statistically, he fits the mold of what it takes to succeed on this course.
Brian Stuard (DK: $6,900, WINNER +15000, Top 5 +2500, Top 10 +1100)
I nearly picked Austin Smotherman in this spot, as well as a few others. Like Smotherman, Stuard ranks well in a few key categories and not so great in a few others. Over his last 24 rounds played via Fantasy National, Brian Stuard is 9th in the field in SG: Approach, 9th in Fairways Gained, and 7th on Par 4’s 450-500 yards. If that trend continues this week, he should have plenty of success.
Who do you have as your favorite PGA DFS 2022 Wells Fargo Sleepers? Chime in with your favorite plays in the comments section below.
Best of luck and as always, thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!
Image Credit: Nate Lashley, via Golf Channel
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