Despite data partially coming from a few months back (as it happens with a new season), the Sony Open data model and analysis created strong results last week. That includes four made cuts, two top ten finishes, and runner-up Nicolas Echavarria. Success won’t always be that high, but let’s take the wins. I know personally that the SportsChump – friend of The Wife Hates Sports – bet on each of last week’s players, and got some positive results in his pockets. So let’s hope we keep the momentum rolling, where this data can relate to American Express… that you… don’t leave home without it. See what I did there? Anyway, let’s dive into our 2025 American Express Sleepers, shall we?
But before we shift to the picks, keep in mind that the American Express tournament features three different courses as a rotation. That does have an impact in how to go about our business. The PGA West Stadium course will be two of the four rounds. Also, this typically is a birdie fest, and the weather forecast certainly doesn’t indicate anything to change that fact.
Also, like last week’s picks, I’ll include the current odds (Winner, Top 5, and Top 10), plus their PGA DFS price on DraftKings and DraftKings Sportsbook. Obviously, these will vary from site to site. For example, I wrote up Echavarria last week at +9000 to win and actually bet on him at +10000. Oh, and in my mind, sleepers and long shots will always be +5000 and higher.
2025 American Express Sleepers: DraftKings Plays and Odds
J.J Spaun (DK: $8,600, WINNER +5500, Top 5 +900, Top 10 +450)
Goodness, the DraftKings DFS salary may tell the story by itself. Spaun was in contention last week and needed a birdie on 18 to join the playoff with Echavarria and Taylor. SG: Approach is very important at the AMEX. The last time Spaun has lost strokes on approach – as recorded via Fantasy National – is March 24th of last year at the Valspar. He has five top ten finishes in his last dozen tournaments played. The Par 3’s are tough at the Stadium Course, but Spaun is 10th in the field in SG: Par 3 (last 24 rounds played). He’s also 2nd in SG: Approach and 11th in Birdies or Better. Expect him to contend again this week.
Eric Cole (DK: $8,300, WINNER +6000, Top 5 +1000, Top 10 +500)
Cole has been a steady balance of recent form (four straight made cuts dating to last year, including 5th place last week) and solid performance at this tournament (T21 and T36 in his only two appearances). His approach game appears to be boom or bust as of late, but he does rank 27th in the field over his last 24 rounds in that category (via Fantasy National). He’s also 31st in Birdies or Better Gained, 15th in Scrambling, and 24th in Proximity to the hole. Dating back to June 30th of last year, Cole has played in fourteen total tournaments, posting eight top 20 finishes, five top ten finishes, and just two missed cuts.
Michael Thorbjornsen (DK: $7,200, WINNER +7500, Top 5 +1200, Top 10 +550)
The 23 year-old Thorbjornsen was born in Cleveland, Ohio, yet his game does not represent anything near that of the Cleveland Browns. His last two tournaments were both top ten finishes, although the most recent on the PGA TOUR was in late November. His game seemed to be turning the corner prior to the end of the year. As a result, the numbers are solid in my golf model, via Fantasy National (last 24 rounds played). That includes ranking 6th in Birdies or Better, 22nd in Scrambling, 34th in SG: Approach, 31st in SG: Putting, and 3rd in SG: Par 3. Performing well on the Par 5’s this week will be key for him.
Joe Highsmith (DK: $7,000, WINNER +11000, Top 5 +1800, Top 10 +800)
Highsmith missed the cut at the Sony Open, but doing so has not been a regular trend that led to poor performances for past winners at these venues. Prior to last week’s struggles, he had been on a steady trend, both on his approach game and with his putter. He ended last season with six straight made cuts and a final stretch where he finished 6th, 16th, 5th, and 11th. He ranks 3rd in the field in SG: Par 5 over his last 24 rounds and is 5th in Birdie or Better. He has not been as steady on Par 3’s or Scrambling. But overall, the game has been strong. It’s just whether he can quickly rebound from last week’s missed cut.
Other Players I Considered:
- Nicolas Echavarria (+5500): I was tempted, as he’s been on a steady run, but losing in a playoff can tend to set a guy back from time to time.
- Lucas Glover (+8000): Missed the cut in three of his last four appearances at the AMEX
- Matt Kuchar (+12000): T21 last week, but limited run here and missed the cut last season
Last Week’s Foursome
- Ben Griffin (WINNER +5000, Top 5 +800, Top 10 +360): T45
- Harry Hall (WINNER +5000, Top 5 +800, Top 10 +400): T10
- Matt Kuchar (WINNER +7500, Top 5 +1200, Top 10 +500): T21
- Nicolas Echavarria (WINNER +10000, Top 5 +1400, Top 10 +650): 2
2025 Season Review: Players
- Sony Open: Ben Griffin (T45) | Harry Hall (T10) | Matt Kuchar (T21) | Nicolas Echavarria (2)
2025 Season Review: Sleeper Finishes (Foursomes Only)
- WINNER: 0 (0%)
- Top 5: 1 (25%)
- Top 10: 2 (50%)
- Top 25: 3 (75%)
- Made Cut: 4 (100%)
- Missed Cut: 0 (0%)
- Total Events: 1 (4 Players)
Who do you have as your favorite 2025 American Express Sleepers?
All golf stats and data via PGATOUR.com and Fantasy National
Chime in with your top picks for the week. Thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!
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Appreciate that… for you and for them to come by… affiliate links with Fanatics give me a cut (wink wink nudge nudge – ha ha)… anyway good start after two rounds and hopefully it holds to that into the weekend for some of these guys.
Keep up the good work, sir. I’ve got people backing your picks.