This year’s event at PGA National opens the Florida swing, due to a PGA TOUR schedule adjustment. That means an earlier opportunity to eat bear claws while you watch professionals fall apart during “The Bear Claw” stretch. The talent level certainly doesn’t match last week’s Genesis Invitational, but there are a few big names playing this week. This leads me to my PGA DFS 2022 Honda Classic Longshots, a list that includes some of my top picks for this week’s event. I also add in odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and my One and Done selection for the week.
As for specific longshots, +5000 is the lowest I’ll go this week when it comes to that list.
Before I present this week’s selections, a few notes on PGA National:
- 2021 winner Matt Jones gained an insane 14.2 strokes Tee to Green and 5.9 strokes on Approach. He also gained 5.6 strokes Around the Green and 2.2 strokes Putting.
- During his 2020 victory at PGA National, Sungjae Im gained 12.3 strokes Tee to Green and 6.2 strokes on Approach. He also gained off the tee, around the green and putting.
- 2019 winner Keith Mitchell also gained in all major categories, including 11.9 Tee to Green, 6.1 on Approach and 3.5 Around the Green. That’s a similar trend to Sungjae Im.
- The course is littered with bunkers and water hazards, so considering stats tied to Scrambling or Sand Saves might be a good idea. Just don’t weigh them too significantly. I focused on Sand Saves.
- Consider the fact that this is a Jack Nicklaus redesign, where SG: Approach is key.
- Wind is often a factor at PGA National. I do check numbers tied to windy conditions and at difficult venues. This year’s weather forecast calls for windy conditions for the first two rounds, which could be an impact to players making the cut.
I ran a few models on Fantasy National tied to my favorite stats for the event. Based off that data, here are my favorite plays and top longshots, accompanied by their odds to win the event (via DraftKings Sportsbook) and their price tag on DraftKings.
PGA DFS 2022 Honda Classic Longshots, Odds, and One and Done
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (DK: $8,000, WINNER +5000, Top 5 +800, Top 10 +400)
Bez screams consistency on the models I ran this week. I even considered him for my One and Done selection. Over his last 36 rounds played (via Fantasy National), Bezuidenhout ranks 19th in SG: Approach, 21st in SG: Par 4, 5th in Sand Saves Gained, and 1st in SG: Putting on Bermuda greens. He did miss the cut last week at the Genesis Invitational, but made his previous four cuts, including a T14 finish at Pebble Beach and a T17 at the Sony Open. I have a good feeling that he’ll be in contention this week.
Aaron Wise (DK: $8,400, WINNER +5000, Top 5 +900, Top 10 +450)
Wise’s most recent form hasn’t been great, including a T67 finish last week and two missed cuts prior to that. He has made three straight cuts at the Honda Classic, including a T13 finish last year. Over his last 36 rounds played (via Fantasy National), Wise ranks 21st in the field in SG: Approach, 10th in SG: Par 4, 4th in total strokes gained on Difficult courses and 24th in GIR Gained. Wise has fared well in windy conditions, too. Overall, he is an intriguing play considering the strength of the field compared to his odds.
Lucas Glover (DK: $7,400, WINNER +6500, Top 5 +1100, Top 10 +550)
No one has been more consistent at PGA National over the last five years. Glover’s last five finishes at the Honda Classic are as follows: T19, MC, T4, T17, T21. He also made three of his last four cuts, including a T5 finish at the Sony Open. Over his last 36 rounds played (via Fantasy National), Glover ranks 10th in the field in SG: Approach, 9th in GIR Gained, and 8th in Opportunities Gained. He has been brutal in getting up and down from the traps and equally as terrible with the flat stick. A strong weekend with either and Glover could make some noise, considering his past history here.
Chris Kirk (DK: $7,500, WINNER +7000, Top 5 +1200, Top 10 +550)
I also like Denny McCarthy (+5500) this week, but Kirk’s odds are much better. Kirk has played here in four straight years, with two missed cuts and two decent finishes (T25 in 2021 and T33 in 2018). As for recent form, he finished T14 at the WM Phoenix Open and also had a decent performance at the Sony Open (T27). He ranks fairly high in a lot of key categories (over his last 36 rounds played). That includes 27th in the field in SG: Approach and 33rd in SG: Par 4’s. He ranks in the top 50 in the field in Sand Saves and putting on Bermuda greens, too. Considering the field, he’s an intriguing option.
2022 Honda Classic: One and Done Pick
Daniel Berger (DK: $10,400, WINNER +1600, Top 5 +400, Top 10 +200)
I went back and forth with this one, but Berger has stated that he is fully recovered from the joint sprain he suffered weeks back. Taking a short break to get healthy, he missed the cut at the WM Phoenix Open. He finished T4 here in 2020 and has been on quite a stretch over the last year-plus. Over his last 36 rounds played (via Fantasy National), Berger ranks 1st in the field in SG: Approach. He is also 4th in strokes gained on Par 4’s, 3rd in strokes gained on Difficult venues, 4th in strokes gained during windy conditions, and 13th in GIR Gained. He pretty much pops in every key stat, with exception being putting. Even there, he has been much better on Bermuda greens. It’s whether he’s really healthy or not.
Others to Consider: Billy Horschel, Shane Lowry, and Keith Mitchell
Who do you have as your favorite PGA DFS 2022 Honda Classic Longshots?
Best of luck and as always, thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!
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