The hype for Augusta National and The Masters is real, especially with rumors swirling about Tiger Woods and his potential availability. But we still have a tournament to complete prior to “Green Jacket Mania”. The PGA TOUR takes on TPC San Antonio and the 2022 Valero Texas Open first. The field isn’t too deep, but there are some big names playing. That includes Rory, Hideki, Spieth, Ancer, Bryson, and Corey Conners. In order to afford some of the big names in your DraftKings lineups, you’ll need to take on a sleeper or two. This leads me to my PGA DFS 2022 Valero Texas Open Sleepers, a list that outlines my favorite cheaper alternatives on DraftKings, as well as their long-shot odds to win via DraftKings Sportsbook. Each could serve as an option to combine with any of the elite DFS options. Either that, or a potential pick to land a surprise title or a top ten finish.
All sleepers this week are in the 6K range on DraftKings.
Before I present this week’s picks, a few notes on TPC San Antonio:
- Defending champion Jordan Spieth gained an astounding 12.9 strokes Tee to Green last year, along with 7.4 strokes on approach, 4.5 strokes around the green, and 5.7 strokes putting.
- Approach is key this week, as it is during nearly all weeks. Focus on Tee to Green, as well.
- Take a closer look at GIR and Proximity numbers, as these greens are hard to hit.
- The cut line is consistently Even or over par, so I checked stats tied to Bogey Avoidance.
- Statistically, the four toughest holes all are Par 4’s that land in the 450-500 yard range.
- Weather conditions: Winds can be a factor here, but it looks like it’ll be inconsistent this week. Reports indicate that 10-20 mph winds are likely on Friday.
I ran a few models on Fantasy National, featuring my favorite stats for the event. Most ranks that I outlined cover a player’s last 24 rounds versus the field. Based off that data, here are my top 6K range sleepers on DraftKings, accompanied by their odds to win the event (via DraftKings Sportsbook).
PGA DFS 2022 Valero Texas Open Sleepers: 6K Range DraftKings Plays and Odds
Adam Svensson (DK: $6,800, WINNER +20000, Top 5 +3000, Top 10 +1400)
Svensson missed the cut at Corales Puntacana last week, but has two top ten finishes in his last eight events (9th at the Honda and 7th at the Sony Open). He has gained strokes on approach in six of his last seven measured events. Svensson’s putting has been bad for most of the year, but he did gain strokes putting at the Valspar a few weeks back. Over his last 24 rounds played (versus the field, via Fantasy National), Svensson ranks 13th in SG: Approach, 16th in GIR Gained, 17th in Proximity, and 36th in SG: Tee to Green. At +20000 and $6,800 on DraftKings, he has intriguing value.
Austin Smotherman (DK: $6,800, WINNER +13000, Top 5 +2000, Top 10 +900)
The 27 year-old Smotherman went to school in Texas (SMU). Like Svensson, he also missed the cut at Corales Puntacana last week. Prior to that, he gained strokes both on approach and off the tee in seven of eight measured events. Smotherman is also a pretty long hitter, ranking 27th in the field in Driving Distance (last 24 rounds, via Fantasy National). Also via Fantasy National, Smotherman ranks 18th in SG: Approach, 30th in GIR Gained, 29th in SG: Tee to Green, and 8th in Proximity. His weakness has been with the flat stick. However, he’s even gained strokes putting in three of his last four measured events.
J.J. Spaun (DK: $6,700, WINNER +11000, Top 5 +2000, Top 10 +800)
Statistically, Spaun has been solid over the last few months. The positive numbers haven’t translated to top ten finishes – at least not since October of last year. Spaun has gained strokes off the tee in nine of his last ten events. He has gained on approach in six of eight. His around the green game has been brutal of late and putting has been inconsistent. Still, over the last 24 rounds played, he ranks 5th in Proximity, 18th in GIR Gained, 25th in SG: Approach, and 24th in SG: Tee to Green.
Luke Donald (DK: $6,500, WINNER +10000, Top 5 +1600, Top 10 +800)
I settled on Donald as a veteran PGA TOUR player that pops statistically in some areas, and not so much in others. He hasn’t gained strokes off the tee in ages. Yet, Donald has gained strokes on approach in five of his last six measured events. At the Valspar, he gained 6.2 strokes on approach and finished 16th. Over his last 24 rounds played, he ranks 1st in the field in SG: Approach. He is also 24th in Bogeys Avoided, 26th in Proximity, and 28th in GIR Gained. He was T13 here back in 2016, but has since missed three straight cuts at the Valero. I’ll be interested to see how he performs.
2022 Valero Texas Open: One and Done Pick
Corey Conners (DK: $9,800, WINNER +1800, Top 5 +450, Top 10 +225)
I went back and forth on this one. My concern is Conners making an extended run at the Match Play. Then, I thought it over again. These guys are professionals. They are in shape. He can’t be that worn down, can he? In a recent interview, Conners stated how he loves this course and it plays well towards his preferred ball flight. Then, there are the stats tied to Conners and his recent performance:
- The last time Corey Conners lost strokes Off the Tee was at the Genesis back in February 2021
- He has gained strokes on approach in six of his last eight events
- Conners won here in 2019 and posted a T14 finish last year
- Over his last 24 rounds played (via Fantasy National), Conners ranks 1st in the field in GIR Gained, 11th in SG: Approach and 4th in SG: Tee to Green
Others I Considered:
- Gary Woodland and Patton Kizzire
Who do you have as your favorite PGA DFS 2022 Valero Texas Open Sleepers? How about your favorite long-shot plays or One and Done picks?
Chime in with your favorite picks below. Either that or stop by to praise or poke fun at mine.
Best of luck and as always, thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!
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