The PGA TOUR season continues its west coast swing with the 2022 Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club.  As an invitational, we are looking at an elite field and fewer players in the mix (120, to be exact).  The cut remains at the top 65 and ties, putting you in a position to require top finishers and 6-for-6 lineups.  That means the lower cost, diamonds in the rough should have increased importance.  This leads me to my PGA DFS Genesis Invitational Sleepers, a list that outlines cheaper DraftKings alternatives, as well as their long-shot odds to win.  Each could serve as an option to combine with the pricier, more elite DFS options.

Oh, and obviously, the term “SLEEPER” can be interpreted in a number of different ways.  In this case, it’s the lower cost players that stand out in key statistical areas, specifically the 6K Range on DraftKings.

Before I present this week’s picks, a few additional notes:

  • 2021 winner Max Homa gained 8.8 strokes Tee to Green and 4.6 strokes putting.  
  • During his 2020 victory here, Adam Scott gained 10.4 strokes Tee to Green and 6.2 strokes on approach.  He was in the positives in all key SG categories.
  • 2019 Genesis winner J.B. Holmes also gained in SG: Tee to Green (6.9) and on approach (5.4).  The main difference was his 8.2 strokes gained putting.
  • If you focus a lot on putting numbers, there are more three putts here than the TOUR average, the greens are Poa Annua and considered fast compared to most.
  • Six of the Par 4’s are between 450-500 yards in length
  • The weather forecast looks pretty consistent, with highs in the upper 60’s and lows in the upper 40’s for the duration of the tournament.  Winds look as if they’ll be light for the first three rounds.

I ran a few models on Fantasy National, featuring my favorite stats for the event.  Most ranks that I outline cover a player’s last 36 rounds versus the field.  Based off that data, here are my top 6K range sleepers on DraftKings, accompanied by their odds to win the event (via DraftKings Sportsbook).  I follow that with my One and Done pick for the week at Riviera:

PGA DFS Genesis Invitational Sleepers: 6K Range DraftKings Plays and Odds

Patrick Rodgers (DK: $6,500, WINNER +18000, Top 5 +2500, Top 10 +1200)

Rodgers doesn’t rank as high in the data model as other options, but he is intriguing for many reasons.  First, check his performance at Riviera over the last five years: T12, T30, T15, T26, T22.  Rodgers is 11th in Driving Distance, meaning he has the length to handle the longer Par 4’s.  Sure, he hasn’t finished higher than 40th in each of his last six events.  But the history at Riviera – coupled with better than average numbers around the green and putting on Poa – paint the picture of a possible rebound.

Rickie Fowler (DK: $6,600, WINNER +20000, Top 5 +3000, Top 10 +1400)

This feels borderline irresponsible to suggest.  Is Fowler starting to show some positive signs?  Maybe… maybe not.  He did post a T20 at Riviera last year, so that’s a start.  He’s here on a sponsors exemption (motivation, maybe).  Despite a third straight missed cut last week, Fowler gained strokes both Tee to Green and on Approach.  He also gained 2.3 strokes Around the Green.  Over the last 36 rounds played via Fantasy National, Fowler ranks 19th in the field in Three Putt Avoidance and 30th in Driving Distance.  He has lost nearly 8 strokes putting over his last three events combined.  If Rickie can rebound with the flat stick and build off last week’s positive gains, he could make some noise.  At 200:1, there are crazier picks you could make (maybe).

Mito Pereira (DK: $6,600, WINNER +20000, Top 5 +3000, Top 10 +1400)

Back-to-back missed cuts may be the sign of a downward trend for Pereira.  However, he has gained strokes putting in five straight events.  Despite the recent struggles, he still ranks 11th in the field in SG: Approach (last 36 rounds played, via Fantasy National).  Mito is also 18th in SG: Tee to Green and ranks well on longer Par 4’s (450-500 yards in length – Riviera has six total).  His recent Proximity and Three Putt Avoidance grades are also strong when compared to the field.  It’s whether the last two tournaments are the signs of a slump or not.  Pereira remains an intriguing sleeper option.

2022 Genesis Invitational: Other Intriguing Odds to Consider

  • Bubba Watson (+3500) – Three Riviera wins, most recently in 2018
  • Paul Casey (+6000) – Ranks 1st in SG: Approach and 2nd in Proximity (last 36 rounds)
  • Kevin Na (+7500) – Strong around the green game and putting on Poa greens
  • Patrick Reed (+9000) – Recent form isn’t there, but how often will Reed be 90:1?

2022 Genesis Invitational One and Done Pick

Xander Schauffele (DK: $9,900, WINNER +2200, Top 5 +400, Top 10 +200)

Dating back to last June, Xander has made twelve straight cuts and posted three top ten finishes.  That includes last week’s 3rd place finish at the WM Phoenix Open.  In last week’s event, he gained a whopping 13.1 strokes Tee to Green and 4.2 on approach.  He actually lost 1.2 strokes putting (the first time he’s lost strokes putting since the BMW back in August.  He has made four straight cuts at Riviera, including three top 15 finishes.  Over the last 36 rounds played (via Fantasy National), Schauffele ranks 14th in the field in SG: Tee to Green and 12th in SG: Approach.  He is 10th in Three Putt Avoidance, which should translate well considering Riviera’s greens.  Xander is due for a win.  Why not now?

 

Who do you have as your favorite PGA DFS Genesis Invitational Sleepers on DraftKings?  How about your favorite long-shot plays or One and Done picks?  

Chime in with your favorite plays below.  Either that or stop by to praise or poke fun at mine.

Best of luck and as always, thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!

All stats and data via PGATOUR.com and FantasyNational.com

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