It is Torrey Pines week, everybody. This – the South course, at least – is the longest course on the PGA TOUR and that means it’s bomber season. Or am I supposed to say “SZN”? Either way, you get the idea. The 2022 Farmers Insurance Open is upon us and oh, if you didn’t notice, the tournament starts on Wednesday. It’s better to avoid Championship Sunday in the NFL – that is, if you want any ratings at all. So, what does Torrey Pines have to offer us this year? Well, a good number of stars, for one. So, if you are looking for sleepers, longshots, and strong bargain plays in the PGA DFS space (or via the odds), then this may be a good place for you to land. There is no pay wall – only Fanatics links that support the site. It is time to outline this week’s PGA DFS 2022 Farmers Insurance Sleepers, which features a handful of intriguing alternatives on DraftKings, Yahoo, and via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Oh, and obviously, the term “SLEEPER” can be interpreted in a number of different ways. In this case, it’s the lower cost DFS players or longshots that stand out in key statistical areas.
Here are a few additional notes regarding the event at Torrey Pines:
- The event splits between the South and North courses over the first two rounds, then spends the final two rounds on the South Course
- The South Course is a Par 72 and well over 7,700 yards, the longest in the PGA TOUR rotation
- While not nearly as long, the North Course is also a Par 72 (7,258 yards)
- Patrick Reed is the defending champion and Jon Rahm has had an incredible record here
- The weather forecast looks amazing and not intrusive at all
Key Stats to Consider for the Farmers Insurance Open (courtesy of Fantasy National)
- Small greens mean a focus on categories such as Proximity and SG: Around the Green
- Six holes measure 450-500 yards in length, pointing to a focus on longer Par 4 performance
- On the flip side, Par 5 scoring may be key considering the need for birdies
- Driving Accuracy and GIR Percentage both rank lower than TOUR average
Now that we have that out of the way, this is no time for FORE-play at The Wife Hates Sports, but time to focus on a list of PGA DFS 2022 Farmers Insurance sleepers.
I ran a few models on Fantasy National featuring my favorite stats for this event (last 36 rounds played for the field – in most cases). Based off that data, here are my favorite sleepers:
PGA DFS 2022 Farmers Insurance Sleepers and Longshots
Luke List (WINNER +7000, Top 5 +1200, Top 10 +600, DK: $7,600, Yahoo: $23)
The SportsChump is sure to cringe at this first selection (he’s been burned by List before). Still, the stats don’t lie in this case. List has gained total strokes in three straight tournaments and five of seven. In fact, over his last three tournaments, List has gained in all major categories but putting. His game typically falters with the flat stick, but over the last two events, List has only lost 1.0 strokes putting. With the small greens, you hope for good numbers in Proximity or SG: Around the Green. List ranks 1st in the field (last 36 rounds played) in SG: Around the Green and 33rd in Proximity. He is also 14th in Driving Distance (Torrey Pines favors the long hitters). He’s an intriguing bargain play.
Patrick Rodgers (WINNER +15000, Top 5 +2500, Top 10 +1100, DK: $7,100, Yahoo: $20)
Yes, big names tend to win here, but Rodgers remains an intriguing play in DFS (or to land a top ten). First, let’s start with his performance at this event. It’s feast or famine. Over the last five years, Rodgers has three missed cuts and two top ten finishes (T9 in 2020 and T4 in 2017). He has also made the cut in his last two events, with not amazing results (but still, made cuts). Statistically versus the field, there’s a lot of consistency. Many don’t speak of his distance off the tee, but Rodgers ranks 17th in the field in Driving Distance (last 36 rounds). When compared to the field, he also cracks the top 20 in both SG: Off the Tee and on Par 4’s 450-500 yards in length. Rodgers could be a sneaky play this week.
Jhonattan Vegas (WINNER +11000, Top 5 +1800, Top 10 +800, DK: $7,600, Yahoo: $23)
“Vegas, baby, VEGAS!” Forget the missed cut last week. Vegas is still trending in the right direction. Torrey Pines favors the bombers. Vegas ranks 7th in the field in Driving Distance (last 36 rounds). He is also 20th in the field in SG: Approach and 9th in SG: Off the Tee. Like Patrick Rodgers, he’s hit or miss at this event, making two cuts and missing three. So, proceed with caution. He’ll need to have a better week on the long Par 4’s and take advantage of the Par 5’s. If he does that, a strong finish is a possibility.
Mito Pereira (WINNER +10000, Top 5 +1600, Top 10 +800, DK: $7,600, Yahoo: $33)
Pereira has not played in a tournament since November. He posted back-to-back T29 finishes in his last two events (from a few months back). He has yet to play here, as well. What’s interesting about his last event is that he lost strokes tee to green, off the tee, around the green, and on approach. Yet, finished T29. He was lethal with the putter. This is a guy that had three top six finishes in a four tournament stretch between July and September 2021. He ranks highly versus the field in Proximity and in SG: Approach, both key stats to consider. He also has performed well on longer Par 4’s of length 450-500 yards. The talent is there, but he hasn’t played in a TOUR event in a while. So we’ll see where his game is at this week. I like him as a dark horse at Torrey Pines.
Joseph Bramlett (WINNER +20000, Top 5 +3000, Top 10 +1200, DK: $7,400, Yahoo: $20)
If you’re feeling a bit crazy, Bramlett is an interesting play. Certainly, you don’t have to take him to win outright. Just hear me out before you dismiss him. Bramlett finished the 2021 calendar year with five missed cuts, but has made both weekends he’s played in January. In both tournaments, he gained in all key strokes gained categories but around the green and putting. He made two straight cuts at this event, including a T18 finish last year. Over the last 36 rounds played (via Fantasy National), Bramlett ranks 17th in the field in SG: Approach and 4th in Driving Distance. Those are two key statistical categories to consider at Torrey Pines. Stranger things have happened, right?
Who do you have as your favorite PGA DFS 2022 Farmers Insurance Picks and Fades? Chime in with your favorite picks, via the comments below.
Best of luck and as always, thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!
Image Credit: Patrick Rodgers Twitter
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