With Thanksgiving steadily approaching, Jason Kokrak is already full of holiday cheer following his victory at last week’s Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open. This week, the PGA TOUR heads to Sea Island, Georgia, and the RSM Classic. Few stars have traveled for the event. Although, Scottie Scheffler, Webb Simpson, Louis Oosthuizen, Cameron Smith, Harris English, Corey Conners, and Joaquin Niemann are all here. With few top names in play, the need to identify sleepers becomes that much more important. That leads us to this week’s PGA DFS 2021 RSM Classic Sleepers, which will outline a handful of intriguing alternatives on DraftKings (and via the latest odds).
Oh, and obviously, the term “SLEEPER” can be interpreted in a number of different ways. In this case, it’s the lower cost players that stand out in key statistical areas, specifically on DraftKings. While I usually focus solely on the 6K range, this week I am also including the lower 7K range.
Here are a few additional notes regarding the event in Sea Island, GA:
- The event is being held at two courses (Seaside and Plantation), with the Seaside course covering three of the four rounds, including the entire weekend
- Seaside course is a Par 70 (7,055 yards), featuring Bermuda greens
- Plantation course is a Par 72 (7,058 yards)
- The weather forecast is likely to feature moderate to strong winds, especially into the weekend
Key Stats to Consider for the RSM Classic (courtesy of Fantasy National)
- Consider the shorter distance of this course and that players of any length can compete
- With winds and cooler temps, it’s smart to consider players that can handle windy conditions
- Half of the Seaside course holes are Par 4’s with a length of 400-450 yards
- Shorter courses often bring out a lot of birdies (translation: focus on Birdies or Better Gained)
- With bombers having little advance, the focus should be more on SG: Approach
- Defending champion Robert Streb performed well on the greens last year (SG: Putting – Bermuda)
Now that we have that out of the way, this is no time for FORE-play at The Wife Hates Sports, but time to focus on a list of PGA DFS 2021 RSM Classic Sleepers.
I ran a few models on Fantasy National featuring my favorite stats for this event (last 36 rounds played for the field). Based off that data, here are my favorite longshots and sleepers on DraftKings:
PGA DFS 2021 RSM Classic: Top Longshots and DraftKings Sleepers
Hank Lebioda (DK: $6,600, WINNER +15000, Top 5 +2200, Top 10 +1200)
A formerly ice-cold Lebioda made this list last week. He finished T15 at the Houston Open. So, as a result, here he is again. Statistically, I simply can’t ignore him. Over the last 36 rounds played (via Fantasy National), Lebioda ranks 14th in the field in SG: Approach, 9th in SG: Par 4 (400-450 yards), and 3rd in Birdies or Better Gained. While he hasn’t been great putting on Bermuda greens as of late (59th in the field), he is 5th in SG: Putting over the last 36 rounds. He missed the cut here last year, but that’s no reason to ignore him following a strong performance in Houston last week.
Alex Smalley (DK: $7,100, WINNER +9000, Top 5 +1400, Top 10 +700)
Smalley is making a strong impression during his first full season on the PGA TOUR. Overall, he has made four straight cuts, including a T15 at the Houston Open and a T12 finish at the Bermuda. He gained strokes on approach in three straight measured events. While there’s a somewhat minimal sample size, he does rank 16th in the field in both SG: Par 4 (400-450 yards) and Birdies or Better Gained. He also ranks 9th in the field in Proximity, so a hot week with the irons could be a good thing. Again, he’s not a household name, but that doesn’t mean he can’t compete this week in Georgia.
Matthew NeSmith (DK: $6,800, WINNER +15000, Top 5 +2200, Top 10 +1200)
Here we go. Yet, another dance with Matthew NeSmith. The guy is sneaky whenever he lands on this list. This is certain to lead to either a MC or a top finish. Overall, NeSmith is strong on approach (6th in the field in SG: Approach over the last 36 rounds, via Fantasy National). Like Luke List (from last week), he is typically not all that great with the flat stick (he ranks 83rd in the field putting on Bermuda greens). Still, NeSmith finished strong here the last two years, specifically T15 last year and T14 two seasons back. He has made three of four cuts, including a T14 finish at the Shriners a handful of weeks back. Great approach game and course history – and who knows?
Emiliano Grillo (DK: $7,400, WINNER +10000, Top 5 +1600, Top 10 +800)
Grillo is similar to both NeSmith and Luke List. He is a streaky player that is often strong on the approach game and weaker with the flat stick. Over the last 36 rounds played (via Fantasy National), Gillo ranks 10th in the field in SG: Approach. He performed well here last year (T18) and has had similar success at similar events. Grillo performs well in windier conditions and has had a lot more success putting on Bermuda greens. Despite that fact, he has lost strokes putting in nine of his last ten measured events. On the flip side, he has gained strokes on approach in six of seven events. This is what you get with Emiliano Grillo. The talent is there, however, to make a strong run.
Local Players with Success (but not a great model rank)
- Zach Johnson – Three top ten finishes in his last four starts here
- Hudson Swafford – Four straight made cuts and decent history here
Other Strong Options to Consider at the RSM Classic
- Brendan Steele (DK: $7,000, WINNER +13000, Top 5 +2000, Top 10 +1000)
- Brian Stuard (DK: $7,200, WINNER +13000, Top 5 +2000, Top 10 +1000)
- Sebastian Munoz (DK: $7,300, WINNER +10000, Top 5 +1600, Top 10 +800)
- Sam Ryder (DK: $6,300, WINNER +25000, Top 5 +4500, Top 10 +1800)
Finally, here is my “FAVORITE of the FAVORITES”:
Webb Simpson (DK: $10,700, WINNER +1800, Top 5 +330, Top 10 +180)
Webb is fairly local to the region and has had a lot of success here. That includes a runner-up finish two seasons ago and a third place finish three years back. In his last event (the CJ Cup), Simpson finished T14. He ranks 2nd in the field in Birdies or Better Gained (last 36 rounds) and first in strokes gained (windy conditions). He is also strong with the flat stick, ranking 12th in SG: Putting on Bermuda greens. Overall, Webb Simpson has gained strokes Tee to Green in seven straight measured events. He is the full package and likely to make a strong run this week.
Who do you have as your favorite PGA DFS 2021 RSM Classic Sleepers on DraftKings? Chime in with your favorite plays below. Either that or stop by to praise or poke fun at mine.
Best of luck and as always, thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!
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