The PGA TOUR season lands back on U.S. soil for the Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open.  Boy, there’s a title that really rolls off the tongue, huh?  All that aside, last week’s event at Mayakoba saw a big-time victory by Viktor Hovland.  Will we see another big name on TOUR hoist the trophy in Houston?  Only time will tell.  There certainly are a good number of stars playing in the event.  There is always the possibility that we’ll see a surprise winner, too.  That leads us to this week’s PGA DFS 2021 Houston Open Sleepers, which will outline a handful of intriguing alternatives on DraftKings.  In addition, I outline each player’s odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Oh, and obviously, the term “SLEEPER” can be interpreted in a number of different ways.  In this case, it’s the lower cost players that stand out in key statistical areas, specifically the 6K Range on DraftKings.

Here are a few additional notes regarding the event at Memorial Park:

  • The event is at Memorial Park Golf Course for the second straight year 
  • Tom Doak redesigned it in 2019 (with Brooks Koepka onboard as an advisor)
  • The Par 70 has a unique layout featuring three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s
  • Carlos Ortiz is the defending champion and the aforementioned Brooks Koepka finished T5 last year
  • During his win here last season, Carlos Ortiz gained 9.5 strokes Tee to Green, 5.7 strokes around the green, and 6.1 strokes putting
  • Betting favorite Sam Burns finished T7 here last season

Key Stats to Consider for the Houston Open (courtesy of Fantasy National)

  • Top 10 finishers here averaged 1.14 strokes gained putting per round, but just 0.80 on approach
  • As a result of the wild layout, there is no consistent hole length to focus on statistically
  • Driving Accuracy was well below the PGA TOUR average at this event
  • Despite the aforementioned accuracy statistic, it appears that Fairways Gained had little impact on the overall results of the tournament
  • Average Driving Distance was approximately 13 yards further than the TOUR average 

Now that we have that out of the way, this is no time for FORE-play at The Wife Hates Sports, but time to focus on a list of PGA DFS 2021 Houston Open sleepers.

I ran a few models on Fantasy National featuring my favorite stats for this event (last 36 rounds played for the field).  Based off that data, here are my favorite sleepers on DraftKings:

PGA DFS 2021 Houston Open Sleepers: Top 6K Picks on DraftKings

Pat Perez (DK: $6,800, WINNER +15000, Top 5 +2500, Top 10 +1200)

I love Pat’s energy. He’s great with the fans.  Fun player.  He also ranked well in my top model this week.  It’s mostly due to consistency as to where he ranks amongst the field.  Over the last 36 rounds played (via Fantasy National), Perez ranks 20th in SG: Around the Green, 21st in Birdies or Better Gained, 38th in SG: Tee to Green, and 26th in SG: Putting on Bermuda greens.  Those ranks are intriguing.  On the flip side, he missed the cut here last year and also missed the cut last week at Mayakoba.  Overall, Perez has had a really strong stretch on the greens (since May).  A well-rounded tournament and an impressive finish is not out of the realm of possibility.

Brian Stuard (DK: $6,700, WINNER +18000, Top 5 +3000, Top 10 +1400)

At 180:1, Stuard is quite the long shot, but I have hit on guys with these odds in the recent past.  After five straight missed cuts, Stuard rebounded to finish T27 last week at Mayakoba.  Let’s not forget the stretch prior to those MC’s, where he had four straight top 15 finishes (including two top tens).  Perhaps he’s figured something out.  Stuard played here last year and made the cut (T50, yawn).  But statistically, there’s a lot to like.  Over the last 36 rounds played, Stuard is 9th in the field in SG: Around the Green, 7th in SG: Putting, and 2nd in Fairways Gained.  He is also 9th in strokes gained on Par 3’s (remember, there are five of them).  A strong week putting and a lot of fairways hit and who knows?

Luke List (DK: $6,900, WINNER +15000, Top 5 +2500, Top 10 +1200)

The long hitting List is a bit of a wild card.  You know what you get with him and that’s long drives, strong Tee to Green game and struggles with the flat stick.  Over his last four events, List has alternated between missed cut and strong finish.  He finished T7 at the ZOZO and T17 at Sanderson Farms.  Over the last 36 rounds (via Fantasy National), List is 6th in SG: Tee to Green.  In fact, he has gained strokes Tee to Green in eight straight measured events that he has played in.  He is also ranked 10th in the field in Driving Distance and 13th in strokes gained on the Par 5’s.  If he can even have a decent week on the greens, List could make a strong run.

Hank Lebioda (DK: $6,400, WINNER +25000, Top 5 +4500, Top 10 +1600)

Sure, let’s get even crazier.  How about Hank Lebioda, who is 250:1 this week?  He has missed six straight cuts, so I understand why.  Still, this is a guy that had three straight top ten finishes prior to this abysmal stretch.  Perhaps that’s why he lands in the top 20 on my model, which covers the last 36 rounds played.  Still, between May and August, this guy gained strokes putting in six straight events.  In five of those six events, he gained strokes around the green.  Refer to the above from last year and the numbers Carlos Ortiz posted to win here.  In my model, Lebioda ranks 34th in the field in SG: Tee to Green, 7th in Birdies or Better Gained, and 2nd in SG: Putting.  Stranger things have happened.

Intriguing Low-to-Mid 7K Range on DraftKings

  • Ian Poulter (DK: $7,300)
  • Branden Grace (DK: $7,600)
  • Danny Willett (DK: $7,200)
  • Gary Woodland (DK: $7,600)
  • Taylor Pedrith (DK: $7,200)

Finally, here is my “FAVORITE of the FAVORITES”:

Sam Burns (DK: $11,100, WINNER +1200, Top 5 +300, Top 10 +140)

Fine, fine… yes, this is a boring pick.  I’m going with the betting favorite this week.  I can’t help it, Burns has been on a great run.  In his last three events, he has a T5 at the CJ Cup, a T14 at the Shriners and a victory at Sanderson Farms.  Burns finished T7 here last year, too.  Statistically, he ranks at the very top of my primary model via Fantasy National.  In that model (last 36 rounds played), Sam Burns ranks 14th in the field in SG: Tee to Green, 3rd in Birdies or Better Gained, 7th in SG: Putting on Bermuda greens, 14th in Scrambling, 2nd in strokes gained on Par 3’s, and 24th in strokes gained on Par 5’s.  He won’t win you a lot of cash if he wins again, but he’s my pick to win at the Houston Open.  

I also wouldn’t be shocked to see Mr. Memorial Park Advisor Brooks Koepka make another solid run.

Last Year’s Sleeper Picks: 2020 Houston Open

  • 6K Range on DraftKings
    • Will Gordon – T38
    • Scott Stallings – MC
    • Jhonattan Vegas – T44
    • Charl Schwartzel – MC
  • Lower 7K Options
    • Sam Burns – T7
    • Sepp Straka – T5
    • Charley Hoffman – T29
    • Luke List – MC

Who do you have as your favorite PGA DFS 2021 Houston Open Sleepers on DraftKings?  Chime in with your favorite plays below.  Either that or stop by to praise or poke fun at mine.

Best of luck and as always, thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!

All stats and data via PGATOUR.com and FantasyNational.com

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