“Vegas, baby… VEGAS!” The 2021-22 PGA TOUR season heads to Nevada for the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open, an event that just received an extension with the tour. For this week’s tournament, I’m shifting slightly away from my standard sleepers, which tends to focus on the extreme long shots and 6K range plays on DraftKings. This post will be a mixture of that and other top plays within reasonable price ranges. Overall, I’m looking for bargain plays, and each will include odds as well as DK price. So, without further ado, here are my PGA DFS 2021 Shriners top longshots and favorite DraftKings plays.
Oh, and by the way, I ran a model on Fantasy National that featured my favorite stats for the event. Specifically, you should consider the following regarding the Shriners:
- Par 71 – 7,255 yards with Bentgrass greens (yes, I checked putting stats on Bent)
- Last year’s cut line was -6 and the previous was -4, so you may need birdie makers
- Per Fantasy National, three of the Par 3’s ranked among the top four toughest holes
- SG: Approach is a key stat at TPC Summerlin, as it is in so many tournaments
- The weather forecast features comfortable temps and winds that do not exceed 15 mph
Again, here are my favorite PGA DFS 2021 Shriners plays. As a general rule of thumb, I’ll stick with picks that are +5000 or greater, via DraftKings Sportsbook. Each is also below the average cost per player on a standard DraftKings lineup ($8,333).
PGA DFS 2021 Shriners: Sleepers, Longshots, and Favorite DraftKings Plays
Mito Pereira (DK: $7,800, WINNER +5000, Top 5 +900, Top 10 +400)
With a below average DraftKings price tag and 50:1 odds, the 26 year-old Pereira is my favorite play of the week. Many will not know the name, but the talent is there (including three wins on the Korn Ferry Tour). Over the last 24 rounds played (via Fantasy National), Pereira ranks 7th in the field in SG: Approach, 4th in SG: Off the Tee, and 2nd in total strokes gained. He is also 9th in strokes gained on the Par 3’s. To add to that point, three of the Par 3’s ranked as the top four toughest holes at TPC Summerlin. I should also add that he finished 3rd at the Fortinet Championship just two weeks ago.
I’m so confident in him, that the SportsChump bet him to win and be the first round leader. Let’s hope he doesn’t pay for that later.
Sam Ryder (DK: $6,300, WINNER +20000, Top 5 +4000, Top 10 +2000)
Ryder is the clear definition of “extreme longshot”, but hey, the US-of-A had an incredible performance at the Ryder Cup, so why not stick with the name “Ryder”, right? On top of that, let’s look at a few key stats with Sam Ryder. For one, the cut line at the Shriners was -6 last year and -4 in the previous event. That tells me that we need birdie makers and Ryder is 2nd in the field in Birdies or Better Gained over the last 24 rounds. He’s also 14th in SG: Approach, a key stat here (and in all events, really). He also ranks 22nd in SG: Par 4 400-450 yards, of which there are 6 holes of that distance. Finally, Ryder finished 3rd at this event back in 2019, so he’s had some success in Vegas. If you’re feeling crazy, go for it.
Lucas Glover (DK: $6,900, WINNER +10000, Top 5 +2000, Top 10 +900)
This pick clashes with my model a bit, as Glover ranks 38th overall. That is well below a lot of other players that fit in this general range. However, Glover ranks 23rd in SG: Approach (last 24 rounds) and is 3rd in Opportunities Gained, a unique stat by Fantasy National that measures “birdie opportunities inside 15 feet from green or fringe PLUS greens/fringe under regulation”. Finally, let’s look at course history, where Glover has played this event in three of the last five years. In those three tournaments, he finished T9, T7, and 3rd. Not too shabby at all. In fact, quite intriguing.
Maverick McNealy (DK: $7,700, WINNER +6000, Top 5 +1200, Top 10 +500)
With McNealy, he checks some, but not all boxes. He sits 60th in the field in SG: Approach (last 24 rounds), which I would prefer to be higher. However, despite that, Mav is 11th in SG: Off the Tee and 11th in SG: Total – again, last 24 rounds played, via Fantasy National. He also ranks 22nd in the field in Birdies or Better and sits 6th in strokes gained on Par 3’s. While his recent performances at this event are nothing to write home to Mom about, McNealy does have a recent streak of made cuts and a runner-up finish at the Fortinet Championship just a few weeks ago. This is a streaky player that could easily make some noise in Vegas this week.
Luke List (DK: $7,200, WINNER +10000, Top 5 +2000, Top 10 +900)
Another intriguing 100:1 shot is Luke List, who has enjoyed a strong stretch at this event, as well as in recent tournaments. For List, the answer is never putting. He has lost strokes putting in six straight events. However, he made five of the six cuts at those events – and that includes a 5th place finish at the Barbasol back in July. List has also gained strokes off the tee in six of his last seven events and gained strokes on approach in six of his last eight. He missed the cut here last season, but in his previous three attempts at the Shriners, List finished T13, T20, and T15. That’s worth a longshot selection.
Who do you have as your favorite sleepers or longshots at the Shriners? Chime in with your favorite picks below. Either that or stop by to praise or poke fun at mine.
Finally, here is my “FAVORITE of the FAVORITES”:
Abraham Ancer (DK: $10,400, WINNER +1800, Top 5 +330, Top 10 +160)
Ancer hasn’t played since the TOUR Championship and BMW events, where he finished T9 in each. He tops the model I ran this week and sits 10th in SG: Approach. He is also 8th in SG: Total, 7th in SG: Putting (Bentgrass greens), 3rd in SG: Par 3, and 6th in SG: Par 400-450 yards. Statistically, he is a good bet to make a strong run this weekend.
Oh, and for the sake of the SportsChump, I hope Mito Pereira performs well, too.
Best of luck and as always, thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!
Image Credit: Golf Digest
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