The wild weather is over, leaving aside a dampened weekend at THE PLAYERS, and shifting gears to Copperhead and the 2022 Valspar Championship.  Five of the world’s top ten players are here, along with a number of other big names.  As usual, I prefer to focus on sleepers and long shots to consider.  This leads me to my PGA DFS 2022 Valspar Sleepers, a list that outlines my favorite cheaper alternatives on DraftKings, as well as their long-shot odds to win via DraftKings Sportsbook.  Each could serve as an option to combine with any of the pricier, more elite DFS options of your choice.  Either that, or a potential pick to land a surprise title or a top ten finish.

Before I present this week’s picks, a few notes on Innisbrook (Copperhead):

  • Defending champion Sam Burns gained 7.6 strokes Tee to Green last year, along with 3.7 strokes on approach, and an insane 9.1 strokes putting.
  • In 2019, Paul Casey gained in all major categories, including 11.2 strokes Tee to Green and 4.6 strokes on Approach.  During his 2018 win, Casey lost 0.2 strokes off the tee, but gained five strokes on approach, 4.6 strokes around the green and 3.5 strokes putting
  • Approach will be key this week, as it is during most weeks.  Focus on Tee to Green, as well.
  • No need to focus on distance – plenty of doglegs.  Long iron play is important.
  • If you like Par 3 numbers, there are five on this course (most of which cross the 200-yard mark).
  • Weather conditions will be nothing like last week.  In fact, minimal rain is expected.  We could see winds in the 10-15mph range on Friday and Sunday, but lower on the other days.

I ran a few models on Fantasy National, featuring my favorite stats for the event.  Most ranks that I outline cover a player’s last 24 rounds versus the field.  Based off that data, here are my top sleepers on DraftKings, accompanied by their odds to win the event (via DraftKings Sportsbook).  For a change, I’m not just focusing on the DraftKings 6K range.

PGA DFS 2022 Valspar Sleepers: Favorite DraftKings Plays and Odds

Adam Hadwin (DK: $7,900, WINNER +6000, Top 5 +1400, Top 10 +600)

Hadwin is a little high in DK price for a regular sleeper, but he is +6000 on DK Sportsbook.  Over the last 24 rounds played (via Fantasy National), Hadwin ranks 11th in the field in SG: Approach, 17th in SG: Tee to Green, and 1st in Proximity.  He has also been stellar on Par 3’s and on Bermuda greens.  While he’s missed the last two cuts here, he does have a T12 finish in 2018 and a title in 2017.  He was also T9 at the rain-soaked THE PLAYERS last week.  Overall, an intriguing play.

Patton Kizzire (DK: $7,200, WINNER +13000, Top 5 +2200, Top 10 +1000)

Kizzire has gained strokes on approach in six of his last seven events.  He also gained an insane 7.8 strokes putting at THE PLAYERS last week, only to finish 22nd.  He has made the cut here in three of his last four tries, with a T33 finish in 2016 being his top result.  Kizzire has also made his last four cuts, including a top ten finish at Phoenix Open.  Over his last 24 rounds played (via Fantasy National), Kizzire ranks 7th in SG: Approach, 13th in SG: Tee to Green, and 30th in SG: Putting.

Vaughn Taylor (DK: $6,700, WINNER +25000, Top 5 +5000, Top 10 +2500)

Taylor is a monstrous long shot when you look at the current odds.  Statistically, there’s a lot to like.  First off, there are his last two finishes at the Valspar: T6 in 2021 and T18 in 2019.  He also has a recent T7 finish at Puerto Rico.  He has gained strokes on approach in six of his last even measured events.  Taylor has also gained strokes Tee to Green in seven straight measured events.  Over his last 24 rounds played, he is 8th in the field in Proximity and also ranks much better on Bermuda greens (23rd). 

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (DK: $7,900, WINNER +10000, Top 5 +1600, Top 10 +800)

I think I can finally spell his name correctly without double-checking it for accuracy.  Again, not my usual 6K range options.  Still, Bez has the potential to be a huge bargain.  He is consistent in all major categories that I measured for the Valspar.  That includes ranking 20th in SG: Tee to Green, 12th in Proximity, and 11th in SG: Putting (Bermuda greens) – all last 24 rounds played, via Fantasy National.  He has yet to play here, but has a recent T20 finish at the API and a T25 at the Honda Classic. 

 

2022 Valspar Championship: One and Done Pick

Shane Lowry (DK: $9,700, WINNER +3000, Top 5 +600, Top 10 +275)

Lowry is on a nice run.  He powered his way through the weather conditions to land a T13 at THE PLAYERS and nearly took the title a few weeks ago at the Honda Classic.  Over his last 24 rounds played (via Fantasy National), Lowry ranks 3rd in the field in SG: Approach, 5th in SG: Tee to Green, 6th in Proximity, and 9th in total strokes gained at difficult venues.  He also rates well putting and on Par 3’s (this course has five).  Overall, Lowry has gained on approach in 12 of 14 measured events.

Others I Considered:

  • Viktor Hovland and Jason Kokrak

 

Who do you have as your favorite PGA DFS 2022 Valspar Sleepers?  How about your favorite long-shot plays or One and Done picks?

Chime in with your favorite picks below.  Either that or stop by to praise or poke fun at mine.

Best of luck and as always, thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!

All stats and data via PGATOUR.com and FantasyNational.com

Image Credit: Adam Hadwin Twitter

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