Thirty players in a no cut event. The winner gets $15 million. Patrick Cantlay opens at -10, followed by Tony Finau two shots back, and BMW runner-up Bryson DeChambeau three behind. Jon Rahm – arguably the hottest and most consistent player over the last few months – sits four back. This is sure to be a wild ride. Considering the small field of elite players, it is a challenge (and a borderline crapshoot) to figure out how to structure your lineups. That’s why for this tournament, I’m shifting off my weekly sleepers and focusing on a Honey Do list for my PGA DFS 2021 TOUR Championship picks and predictions.
Gotta stick with the site theme on occasion.
As always, there are key factors and course traits to consider when analyzing the slate. It all depends on where you want your focus to be. I’ll list out a few of my favorites – pick and choose as you may.
But first, DO NOT continuously build your lineups to be right up to the $50,000 cap on DraftKings. With fewer players and combinations, you are going to want to leave some money on the table.
Here we go, with a Honey Do List that doesn’t feature chores like taking out the trash, painting the bathroom or fixing that pesky light fixture in the hallway.
This will be a list for your PGA DFS 2021 TOUR Championship lineups. It’s certain to be a list that THE WIFE will hate by the end of the weekend, especially if you’re sweating out a potential big payday by the time Sunday evening arrives.
PGA DFS 2021 TOUR Championship: Honey Do List of Stats and DraftKings Picks
Note: All stats pulled from either Fantasy National or the PGA Tour website
DO Focus on Good Drives Gained
This is a Fantasy National specific stat that I really like for East Lake. As described on Fantasy National, a good drive is a drive “where the player either hits the fairway off the tee OR the player misses the fairway but still hits the green or fringe in regulation”. Driving Accuracy at East Lake is a shade under 55%, which is well under the TOUR average. Still, I know players like Bryson are able to frequently miss a fairway, yet strong enough to still hit a green in regulation.
Top Plays by Good Drives Gained (Last 36 rounds, via Fantasy National):
- Abraham Ancer (DK: $9,600 – Rank: 1st)
- Corey Conners (DK: $6,200 – Rank: 2nd)
- Collin Morikawa (DK: $8,300 – Rank: 3rd)
DO Focus on Donald Ross Course History
Donald Ross courses all bring a similar strategy, with angles and approach shots key to success. When I researched the TOUR Championship last year, I did check East Lake results, as well as Ross course history, but put little weight on each. This year, I’m boosting my focus on Ross courses, because I’m looking for a specific type of player, and hopefully some that many aren’t focusing on.
Top Plays by Total Strokes Gained on Donald Ross Courses (Last 36 rounds, via Fantasy National):
- Rory McIlroy (DK: $9,300 – Rank: 1st)
- Xander Schauffele (DK: $8,900 – Rank: 2nd)
- Sergio Garcia (DK: $5,400 – Rank: 3rd)
DO Focus on Bermuda Greens
East Lake features some very slick Bermuda greens. Obviously, putting isn’t always a preferred focus, considering the stat’s volatility. For me, with this much money on the line – and a championship trophy – I’m definitely going to keep an eye on the stronger putters. Think of Cantlay’s clutch putting last week at the BMW and how important that was. With that said, I’m also looking at players that have had recent success on Bermuda greens.
Top Plays by SG: Putting – Bermuda Greens (Last 36 rounds, via Fantasy National):
- Sam Burns (DK: $8,500 – Rank: 1st)
- Bryson DeChambeau (DK: $12,300 – Rank: 2nd)
- Joaquin Niemann (DK: $5,600 – Rank: 3rd)
DO Focus on Par 4 Performance
East Lake is a Par 70. Therefore, we are looking at just two Par 5’s and more Par 4’s. Some analysts are focusing on specific distances (e.g. Par 4’s 450-500 yards) and while that’s a viable option, I’m looking at the bigger picture, specifically strokes gained on Par 4’s for the last few months of tournaments.
Top Plays by SG: Par 4 (Last 36 rounds, via Fantasy National):
- Louis Oosthuizen (DK: $7,600 – Rank: 1st)
- Jon Rahm (DK: $13,000 – Rank: T-2nd)
- Patrick Cantlay (DK: $13,400 – Rank: T-2nd)
- Rory McIlroy (DK: $9,300 – Rank: 4th)
Who do you have as your favorite plays for the PGA DFS 2021 TOUR Championship? How about for your favorite stats to consider? Chime in with your favorite picks and plays below.
Best of luck and as always, thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!
All stats and data via PGATOUR.com and FantasyNational.com
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