Vegas has little faith in the AFC South this year and that’s somewhat surprising. With an offensive quartet of Tannehill, Henry, Jones, and Brown, the Titans are going to create matchup nightmares for opposing defenses. Tennessee also added key pieces on defense, so this is a legit title contender. The Colts are going to need Carson Wentz to stay healthy and return to his old form. On the back half of the division, we’ll see how Trevor Lawrence and Urban Meyer perform in Jacksonville. Meanwhile, Houston has a lack of talent and a Deshaun Watson mess on its hands. So, how do these offseason headlines impact my 2021 AFC South Season Predictions?

A new NFL season means a few renewed traditions at The Wife Hates Sports. First and foremost, it’s THE WIFE releasing an ultra-heavy dose of eye rolls, as she knows the next chunk of months will see the weekends swallowed up by football (both college and pro). Secondly, it’s time for KP’s NFL season predictions, specifically piggybacking off the SportsChump and his annual Over/Under Contest, where you predict the upcoming regular season win totals of NFL teams (by confidence).

Only, this year will feature something new. While I will – and did – complete my top ten over/under win total bets for the 2021 season, I’ll also tackle every team’s record (by division).

Specifically, here are my 2021 AFC South Season Predictions – oh, and don’t forget that the upcoming year has been supersized to seventeen regular season games.

Team – 2021 O/U

  • Tennessee Titans – 9
  • Indianapolis Colts – 9
  • Jacksonville Jaguars – 6.5
  • Houston Texans – 4

Above features the projections from Vegas, and here are my picks for the AFC South:

2021 AFC South Season Predictions: Over/Under Win Total Bets

Tennessee Titans – (9 wins – OVER)

The Titans feature AJ Brown, Derrick Henry, and Julio Jones on offense. Talk about a matchup nightmare for most teams. Ryan Tannehill has to be loving this. The addition of Jones makes Tennessee a legit title threat. Sure, Julio played in just nine games last season, but he did manage to play between 14-16 games from 2014-19. So, how did Tennessee address its 28th ranked defense from last year? The three top defensive signings include OLB Bud Dupree, CB Janoris Jenkins, and DE Denico Autry. Overall, I like the Titans to increase its win total from last year’s 11-5 regular season mark. We’ll see how the revamped defense performs, and whether it’s enough to vault Tennessee into the big game.

KP’s Prediction: 12-5 | Confidence: High

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Indianapolis Colts – (9 wins – PUSH)

The Colts are a talented team that has been consistently bitten by injuries and inconsistent quarterback play. The deal for Carson Wentz was an interesting one, but Wentz has already been on the shelf with an injury (and recently on the COVID list). Yes, the Colts also have a low vaccination rate. Overall, this leaves unproven players to help drive the offense. TY Hilton and Michael Pittman are solid receivers, but injuries kept them off the field at various times. Hilton is already hurt. Jonathan Taylor could have a monster season, but without consistent QB play, opposing defenses are likely to key in on him and the other backs. The defense (8th in yards allowed last year) is strong across the board. Again, it comes back to QB play and if Carson Wentz is not just healthy, but also able to return to his pre-2020 form.

KP’s Prediction: 9-8 | Confidence: Low

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Jacksonville Jaguars – (6.5 wins – UNDER)

Last year, the talk was “Tank for Trevor”. Jacksonville turns the page with Trevor Lawrence and Urban Meyer taking on the NFL. This is a young team that needs time. Outside Lawrence, there are some real talented players on the roster like James Robinson, Laviska Shenault Jr., Josh Allen, and more. Rookie Travis Etienne (Lisfranc injury) is out for the year. Sure, Urban has had success everywhere, but the NFL is a different beast. There’s already talk of unrest. Growing pains are to be expected. The schedule assists with some likely weak opponents, but six wins seems like the ceiling for this team. 

KP’s Prediction: 5-12 | Confidence: Medium

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Houston Texans – (4 wins – UNDER)

This is a tricky one. We all know the talent of Deshaun Watson. We also know the negative headlines. No one is sure when this could take a turn towards a significant suspension. Watson also wanted to be traded before the news dropped. Trade rumors recently popped up again, but why would any team deal for him now? Recent reports suggest Watson could be a healthy scratch for some (or all) of the season. This was a 4-12 team last season and one that had minimal draft picks. There’s a lack of talent and depth at the WR position. Mark Ingram and David Johnson anchor the run game. Last year’s defensive unit finished last against the run (160.3 ypg). Overall, the Texans are likely to struggle, but just how bad will they be? That depends on the Deshaun Watson news. Let’s assume he doesn’t play. Either way, it’ll be ugly and this is likely to be the worst team in the league.

KP’s Prediction: 2-15 | Confidence: Low

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Who do you have hoisting the AFC South division crown? Chime in via the comments section below and as always, thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!


Recap of all Teams/Divisions for the 2021 NFL Season


References: Stats | OurLads Depth Charts 


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