The WGC-FedEx St Jude Invitational is a unique beast on the schedule, packing a smaller field with a good cause, all loaded with talent into a four-round no cut event. The result is an entertaining event that also leads to different strategies in the Fantasy Golf space. So as the players hone in on TPC Southwind, there are various key stats to consider when selecting your PGA DFS 2021 WGC-FedEx St Jude Sleepers, a list that outlines cheaper alternatives on DraftKings, as well as their long-shot odds to win.
The next question is how to structure your lineups. With so many big names on the slate, it’s easy to want to roster one (or more) of the 10K range names. In doing so, you will need to consider the 6K range players. Considering the talent that dips into the 6K range for this tournament, that’s not really such a bad thing. It’s simply picking the right players.
Obviously the term “SLEEPER” can be interpreted in a number of different ways. In this case, it’s the lower cost players that stand out in key statistical areas, specifically the DraftKings 6K Range.
Before I present this week’s picks, a few additional notes on TPC Southwind:
- Don’t get cute – big names win here (Brooks and JT are the last two winners)
- Past winners have posted big numbers in either SG: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, or both. If using Fantasy National, you could also consider SG: Ball Striking, a combination of the two stats
- The course (Par 70, 7,238 yards) is long for a Par 70. Also, yes, I did consider Par 4 stats, considering this course has just two Par 5’s
- The course features Bermuda greens, so if you are big on putting stats, I did run comparisons for SG: Putting and SG: Putting on Bermuda greens
- With smaller greens, there are a number of stats you could check. In this case, I focused more on Proximity, as opposed to other numbers such as Scrambling
- With no cut events, I do like to keep an eye on birdie makers
- Current weather forecasts predict temperatures in the lower 90’s with minimal wind impacts – at least, until Sunday when the picks are likely to pick up a bit (to 10-15mph)
Because of the smaller field (66 players to be exact), I approached my list of PGA DFS 2021 WGC-FedEx St Jude sleepers by only considering 6K DraftKings names that landed in the top half of the two models I ran. For those of you that didn’t expect any math today, that translates to each name below landing in the top 33 of both models.
For visibility to the models, they were created on FantasyNational and feature numerous statistical categories that include SG: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, Birdie or Better Gained, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Proximity, SG: Par 4, and more.
The results of this data – with some checks from PGATOUR.com – led me to these players:
PGA DFS 2021 FedEx St Jude Sleepers: 6K Range Players to Consider on DraftKings
Stewart Cink (DK: $6,500, WINNER +13000, Top 5 +2000, Top 10 +800)
Cink’s recent stretch isn’t great. That includes two straight missed cuts and seven straight events without a finish inside the Top 30. Despite that, this is a father-son combo that has had some success in the last few years, including a win at the RBC Heritage back in April. Cink has gained SG: Off the Tee in three straight measured events and gained on approach in six of the last eight measured events. He sits 3rd in the field in SG: Approach and 6th in Proximity (last 36 rounds played, via Fantasy National). He is also 18th in SG: Putting (Bermuda greens) and 19th in SG: Ball Striking.
Sam Burns (DK: $6,900, WINNER +8000, Top 5 +1400, Top 10 +500)
Statistically, Burns performs best on Bermuda greens. Overall, he’s 6th in the field in SG: Putting on Bermuda greens (last 36 rounds, via Fantasy National). He is also 15th in the field in SG: Approach and has gained on approach in seven of his last eight events. Let’s not forget that dating back to February, Sam Burns has 3 top three finishes, which includes a runner-up and a win at the Valspar. Sitting 23rd in SG: Ball Striking and 11th in Birdies or Better Gained (last 36 rounds), this is a guy that can get hot.
Lucas Glover (DK: $6,400, WINNER +18000, Top 5 +3000, Top 10 +1000)
Glover’s numbers putting aren’t great on any surface, especially Bermuda greens. However, he has gained strokes putting in five straight tournaments. Over his last ten events, Glover has a win (John Deere Classic), an 8th place finish at the Charles Schwab, and a 4th place finish at the Valero Texas Open. Over the last 36 rounds played (via Fantasy National), he’s respectable in a number of key categories, including SG: Par 4 (18th), Fairways Gained (15th), SG: Off the Tee (25th), and SG: Approach (31st). Overall, this is a steady player that is an intriguing option at this price point.
Max Homa (DK: $6,700, WINNER +13000, Top 5 +2500, Top 10 +900)
Homa is a streaky player, typically following two strong finishes with two missed cuts. Statistically though, he is interesting at this price point. In his last two events, Homa finished 40th at The Open Championship and 25th at the Rocket Mortgage. He is 22nd in the field in SG: Ball Striking (Approach + Off the Tee, last 36 rounds via Fantasy National) and 9th in Proximity. Statistically, the numbers aren’t great compared to the field on Par 4’s and landing birdies, but he is 24th in Bogeys Avoided (also last 36 rounds played). The talent is there. He just needs a big week.
…and if you’re feeling crazy…
Wilco Nienaber (DK: $6,000, WINNER +40000, Top 5 +6500, Top 10 +2500)
You want a long-shot of long-shots? Nienaber lands 400:1 for the WGC-FedEx St Jude. He has never been a part of this event, but did have a T31 finish at the Barbasol a few weeks back. He has just three events logged on Fantasy National, all made cuts. Therefore, the recent data is limited. However, he is 9th in the field in SG: Off the Tee (last 36 rounds played on Fantasy National). He also is 20th in strokes gained on Par 4’s and 19th in Birdies or Better Gained. While the data is limited, he is better on Bermuda greens (30th) than SG: Putting (48th). Again, the 21 year-old South African is a long-shot, but maybe he could land a top five or top ten if you took a chance on him? Stranger things have happened.
Who do you have as your favorite “sleepers” for the PGA DFS 2021 WGC-FedEx St Jude Invitational? Chime in with your favorite plays below. Either that or stop by to either praise or poke fun at mine.
Best of luck and as always, thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!
Image Credit: Golf Digest