The 2021 FedEx Cup Playoffs continue at Caves Valley Golf Club, a Baltimore area course that has been lengthened and adjusted to handle the PGA TOUR’s playoff event. With little data for measure, your guess is as good as mine when it comes to the right picks. Well, maybe. I do have a strategy in place. It may not be as good as the one put together by the grounds crew at Liberty National last week (take that, Henri). Again, we are faced with a deep field and a no cut event. The top 30 in the FedEx Cup standings advance to next week’s finale. Until then, it’s time to focus on sleepers and a course that has not been in the PGA TOUR spotlight until now. With a field this deep, there is talent to be found in the 6K range on DraftKings, but it’ll still take a Herculean effort to win. Seeking high-ceiling, low ownership options, I considered a number of key stats when selecting my PGA DFS 2021 BMW Sleepers.
Obviously, the term “SLEEPER” can be interpreted in a number of different ways. In this case, it’s the lower cost players – specifically the DraftKings 6K range – that stand out in key statistical areas.
Before I present this week’s picks, here are a few additional notes on Caves Valley:
- Par 72 – 7,542 yards – and here’s a good rundown of the course layout
- Caves Valley features fast Bentgrass greens (if you focus on putting numbers)
- With the Par 72 and some longer Par 4’s and Par 5’s with potential for good scores, I simplified my approach to strongly focus on both Ball Striking (Off the Tee + Approach) and Driving Distance. When in doubt, these are good coverage areas.
- During no cut events like the BMW Championship, I focus on Birdie or Better numbers
- The weather forecast this week features high temps in the lower 90’s, with minimal winds and some occasional chances for a thunderstorm. No need to focus on stats against windy conditions
I ran multiple models on FantasyNational and also checked key stats via the PGA TOUR website. The range of data I analyzed includes recent events and additional detail for the 2021 PGA TOUR season.
Based off that information, here are my favorite 6K range sleepers on DraftKings, accompanied by their current odds to grab a WIN/Top 5/Top 10 at the event (via DraftKings Sportsbook).
PGA DFS 2021 BMW Sleepers: Top DraftKings 6K Range Plays
Note: All stats and ranks are based off the last 36 rounds played, via Fantasy National
Keith Mitchell (DK: $6,500, WINNER +15000, Top 5 +3500, Top 10 +1200)
Mitchell is sneaky long, cracking the top ten in the field when it comes to Driving Distance. He is 12th in the field playing Par 4s 450-500 yards in length. He has two top ten finishes in his last three events (8th at the NORTHERN TRUST and 5th at the 3M Open). During those events (both with Bentgrass greens), he gained 12.6 strokes putting combined. Sitting 63rd in the FedEx Cup standings, he’ll need another strong showing to make next week’s championship.
Patton Kizzire (DK: $6,200, WINNER +25000, Top 5 +3000, Top 10 +1400)
Like Mitchell, Patton Kizzire is near the bottom of the field (66th) when it comes to the FedEx Cup standings. Only Robert Streb and Hudson Swafford have longer odds to win this week, but at $6,200 on DraftKings, I like him as an option – and not just for the price tag. He is 10th in the field in Birdies or Better Gained and 9th in SG: Putting on Bentgrass greens. He has lost strokes putting in three straight events, but gained on the greens in 12 of his previous 13 tournaments. Another week gaining on approach (like at the NORTHERN TRUST), plus a return to his putting form, and we could see a strong finish.
Emiliano Grillo (DK: $6,500, WINNER +13000, Top 5 +1800, Top 10 +900)
Yes, there was hesitation in selecting Grillo, considering he’s missed five of six cuts. Let’s face it, the guy is streaky. Very streaky. Outside a strong run at The Open Championship in July, Grillo lost strokes putting and around the green in his last five events. On the flip side, he’s gained strokes on approach in 8 of 9 tournaments. Over his last 36 rounds, he sits 16th in both SG: Ball Striking and Birdie or Better Gained. Even a mediocre round on and around the greens, and Grillo could return to the leaderboard.
Stewart Cink (DK: $6,600, WINNER +15000, Top 5 +2500, Top 10 +900)
Cink was on a tear April through June and has really cooled off as of late. Still, this is a veteran guy, who has his son on the bag keeping him loose. He gained 7.6 strokes putting last week, only to finish 21st. It’s a matter of piecing all aspects of his game together. He ranks 8th in the field in SG: Putting on Bentgrass greens, and a big reason for that is last week. He is also 11th in Sand Saves and 19th in Scrambling, so he’ll likely stay away from big scores. The key will be if he can post enough red numbers.
While my sleepers only consider 6K range plays on DraftKings, there are a handful of 7K range players that really popped in the models I created. Specifically, I’m highly intrigued by these players:
Strong Mid-to-Low 7K Range Options
- Charley Hoffman (DK: $7,000, WINNER +6500, Top 5 +1000, Top 10 +450)
- Jason Kokrak (DK: $7,800, WINNER +6500, Top 5 +1200, Top 10 +600)
- Jhonattan Vegas (DK: $7,100, WINNER +13000, Top 5 +1600, Top 10 +800)
Outside the world of sleepers, here’s my pick to win at the BMW Championship:
KP’s Pick to Win: Dustin Johnson
Sure, Justin Thomas didn’t win last week, but I was on the right track with him and happy about that considering so many were off the JT wagon (considering his recent putting woes). I have a similar theory with DJ. Yes, Jon Rahm is the clear favorite and an obvious pick to repeat at the BMW, considering only COVID has managed to set him back in recent months.
Dustin Johnson, on the other hand, has missed two of three cuts. Still, think about it. While a lot of key players in the FedEx race had to stay an extra day following Henri, DJ was able to regroup and work on key areas of his game. He sits 22nd in the standings and needs a strong performance to advance. Statistically, DJ is 7th in the field in Driving Distance, 11th in Birdies or Better Gained, 11th in SG: Putting, and 15th in SG: Par 5. On Fantasy National, he’s currently projected at around 10% ownership, which is where JT was projected last week. Call it a gut feeling. Don’t sleep on him.
Recap from THE NORTHERN TRUST
- Top 6K Range Plays: Chris Kirk (T56), Doug Ghim (T31), Kyle Stanley (MC), Hank Lebioda (MC), and Brian Stuard (MC)
- Strong Mid-to-Low 7K Range Options: Seamus Power (T31), Keegan Bradley (T11), Cameron Tringale (T21), and Shane Lowry (T11)
- KP’s Pick to Win: Justin Thomas (T4)
Again, with little data on the course, this will be an interesting tournament. Strategies will be wide-ranging and that should make this fun. Checking the yardage and scorecard, I decided to focus strongly on Driving Distance and Ball Striking. Considering the no cut event, I also focused on Birdie or Better and Putting numbers (both Bentgrass and overall). I didn’t ignore the Par 4 and Par 5 stats, but they had a lesser focus.
Who do you have as your favorite PGA DFS 2021 BMW Sleepers on DraftKings? Chime in with your favorite plays below. Either that or stop by to praise or poke fun at mine.
Best of luck and as always, thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!
All stats and data via PGATOUR.com and FantasyNational.com
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