No more major championships until we land back at Augusta in April. That hits hard. Harder than the annual rejection letter I just received for Masters tickets. So, yes, it will be tough to follow last week’s gem at Royal St. George’s, where we saw exuberant crowds, big-time names on the leaderboard and another Morikawa major masterpiece. Heading into this week’s 3M Open, we might just need a seven-man playoff to top last week’s play across the pond. Either way, the PGA TOUR makes its way to TPC Twin Cities with just a handful of weeks left before the FedEx Cup Playoff. With enough big names traveling to Minnesota, there is a need for diamonds in the rough (a.k.a. cheaper options on DK). That brings me to this week’s PGA DFS 2021 3M Open Sleepers, a list that outlines my favorite cheaper alternatives on DraftKings, as well as their long-shot odds to win.
Obviously the term “SLEEPER” can be interpreted in a number of different ways. In this case, it’s the lower cost players that stand out in key statistical areas, specifically the 6K Range on DraftKings.
Before I present this week’s picks, a few additional notes on TPC Twin Cities:
- The last two winners – Michael Thompson (-19 in 2020) and Matthew Wolff (-21 in 2019) showcase a potential need for birdie makers
- The larger greens leave certain figures aside, while some key stats like Proximity get included
- The course (Par 71, 7,431 yards) is an Arnold Palmer design that features three Par 3’s exceeding 200 yards and three Par 5’s that can yield a significant number of birdies and eagles
- Following up on the previous bullet, nearly 54% of players birdied Hole #12 (per Fantasy National)
- The course features Bentgrass greens, so if you are big on putting stats, I did run comparisons for SG: Putting and SG: Putting on Bentgrass greens
- SG: Approach is arguably the most important stat in Fantasy Golf and should be key here
- Many believe this will be a birdie fest if the winds stay down, so keep an eye on 1) Birdies or Better Gained and 2) the weather reports
- Current weather outlines a potential for gusty winds at times and sustained winds between 10-20mph in the afternoons of both Thursday and Friday – we’ll see how that pans out
I ran multiple models on Fantasy National and also checked key stats via the PGATOUR website. The range of data I analyzed includes recent events and detail for the 2021 PGA TOUR season. Based off that information, here are my favorite 6K range sleepers on DraftKings, accompanied by their current odds to grab a WIN/Top 5/Top 10 at the event (via DraftKings Sportsbook).
PGA DFS 2021 3M Open Sleepers: Top DraftKings 6K Range Plays
Satoshi Kodaira (DK: $6,500, WINNER +15000, Top 5 +2800, Top 10 +1200)
Kodaira seems to regularly fall under the radar at low-key events. He ranks 30th in the field in both SG: Approach and SG: Off the Tee (last 36 rounds, via Fantasy National). He is also 22nd in the field in Birdies or Better Gained (last 36 rounds) and cracks the top 50 in SG: Putting on Bentgrass greens. He’s coming off a 20th place finish at the Barbasol where he gained both off the tee and on approach. That finish marks his fourth top 20 finish in his last seven tournaments played. At this price on DraftKings – and with 150:1 odds – he could really create a nice payout.
Vincent Whaley (DK: $6,800, WINNER +13000, Top 5 +2200, Top 10 +900)
Whaley has gained strokes off the tee in 7 of his last 8 events, including in last week’s Barbosol Championship, where he finished 26th. He also gained on approach last week after losing strokes in the previous four events. Whaley had made nine straight cuts before missing three of four prior to last week. He is also 2nd in the field in strokes gained on Par 5’s. This is a key stat considering the course where eagles can be had. Overall, there are enough good performances over the last few months to make him intriguing on paper. He also has gained strokes putting in four straight events, including 3.6 last week.
Jason Dufner (DK: $6,600, WINNER +20000, Top 5 +4000, Top 10 +1600)
Dufner has made the cut here in each of the last two years, including a T32 finish in 2020. The veteran also posted a T26 at the Barbosol last week and a T18 the week prior at the John Deere. Statistically versus the field, Dufner is 21st in SG: Approach, 22nd in SG: Off the Tee, and 16th in Proximity (all last 36 rounds, via Fantasy National). His numbers both on the greens and in windy conditions have been brutal, but a decent week putting might help vault the 200:1 long shot to a strong finish.
Russell Knox (DK: $6,900, WINNER +15000, Top 5 +2800, Top 10 +850)
Knox fell behind a few others in the 6K range when it comes to the models I ran. He missed the cut here in 2020 and has also missed cuts in two of his last three events. Despite that, Russell Knox ranks 5th in the field in SG: Approach and 4th in Proximity (last 36 rounds, via Fantasy National). His rank in Birdies or Better Gained is surprisingly not good (117th). That’s likely due to his struggles on the greens. Still, Knox has gained strokes on approach in 12 of his last 13 events. He has also gained strokes off the tee in four of his last five events. A strong run is a possible if he gets hot with his irons (and with the flat stick).
Due to the weaker field, it was tough to find sub-7K players that I was comfortable with. A few landed higher on the models I ran, but did not include them here. All of the above players are long shots, but so was my pick of K.H. Lee when he won a few month back.
Who do you have as your favorite PGA DFS 2021 3M Open Sleepers on DraftKings? Chime in with your favorite plays below. Either that or stop by to praise or poke fun at mine.
Best of luck and as always, thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!
Image Credit: PGA of America