Last week, it was the “Snake Pit”. This week, it’s the “Green Mile”. As the PGA TOUR shifts to Charlotte, NC and the 2021 Wells Fargo Championship, a number of the biggest names are here. So, as the game’s best prepare for the PGA Championship in a few weeks, Quail Hollow presents its own maniacal challenges. This monstrous test of more than 7,500 yards will place our focus back on the bombers. Oh, and yes, Bryson returns this week. So if you want to play him (and you should), you’ll need cheaper options to be able to afford him. At this difficult venue, a combination of big bombers and bargains might just be the ideal fit. That brings me to this week’s PGA DFS Wells Fargo Sleepers, a list that outlines my favorite cheaper alternatives on DraftKings, as well as their long-shot odds to win.
Obviously the term “SLEEPER” can be interpreted in a number of different ways. In this case, it’s the lower cost players that stand out in key statistical areas, specifically the 6K Range on DraftKings.
Before I present this week’s picks, a few additional notes on Quail Hollow:
- The 2020 edition of this tournament was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic
- Max Homa is your defending champion (from 2019)
- During his victory run, Homa posted insane numbers, including 9.9 strokes gained putting, 7.5 strokes gained Tee to Green and 17.2 total strokes gained
- SG: Approach is always a key stat to consider, but this week, I like both Driving Distance and SG: Off the Tee even more
- There are eight Par 4’s that range between 450-500 yards and that includes four of the five toughest
- There may be some moderate winds throughout the weekend, but overall, the weather looks to be incredible, with high temps in the lower 70’s
- This is a tough, tree-lined course, so difficult conditions or how players handle brutal venues is certainly a stat to keep an eye on
- If you like to consider pairings, here is the current list of starting times for the opening two rounds of the tournament, as presented on Twitter by the PGA TOUR Communications account:
— PGA TOUR Communications (@PGATOURComms) May 4, 2021
I ran multiple models on Fantasy National and also checked key stats via the PGA TOUR website. The range of data I analyzed includes recent events, history at Quail Hollow and detail for the 2021 PGA TOUR season. Based off that data, here are my favorite 6K range sleepers on DraftKings, accompanied by their current odds to grab a WIN/Top 5/Top 10 at the event (via DraftKings Sportsbook).
PGA DFS Wells Fargo Sleepers: Top DraftKings 6K Range Plays
Henrik Norlander (DK: $6,500, WINNER +25000, Top 5 +4500, Top 10 +1800)
For Norlander, the recent form isn’t great, but the stats are decent. He did finish T48 at the Valspar last week, but that was following three missed cuts. Overall, he is 68th in the field in Driving Distance (not great, but not bad). Over the last 36 rounds (via Fantasy National), Norlander is 32nd in SG: Tee to Green and 11th in SG: Approach. He is also 13th in Bogey Avoidance. Stay away from the big numbers and find a way to steal some birdies, that’ll be key this week.
Luke List (DK: $6,800, WINNER +17500, Top 5 +2800, Top 10 +1000)
List is a bomber. He sits 7th in Driving Distance (last 36 rounds played, via Fantasy National). He is also 27th in SG: Tee to Green and 11th in SG: Off the Tee – all key stats to keep an eye on at Quail Hollow. He has made the cut here three straight times, including a T9 finish in 2018. List’s recent form is a bit sporadic, but he does have a recent T17 finish at the Valero Texas Open. If List can have even an average week with the flat stick, he could surprise.
Will Gordon (DK: $6,200, WINNER +40000, Top 5 +8000, Top 10 +3300)
Should the 400 to 1 odds make me feel crazy to pick Gordon? Maybe. Vegas tends to know. Statistically, Gordon is a bit of a wild card. Still, he is a big-time bomber. Gordon is 4th in the field in Driving Distance (last 36 rounds played, via Fantasy National). Also in the last 36 rounds, he ranks 15th in the field on Par 4’s 450-500 yards (again, there are eight in this range) and 42nd in SG: Off the Tee. Recently, he has faltered on the greens, struggled Tee to Green and failed to avoid the big numbers. Still, the talent is there, and he has made three of his last four cuts.
Tom Lewis (DK: $6,700, WINNER +25000, Top 5 +4000, Top 10 +1600)
Lewis has made five straight cuts and checks a lot of boxes at this price range. Over the last 36 rounds played, Lewis cracks the top 40 in three major statistical categories: Driving Distance (32nd), Par 4’s 450-500 yards (38th) and SG: Off the Tee (38th). Like the others in this list, Lewis ranks lower in recent putting form, although not nearly as bad. I consider him a legit contender for at least a top ten.
My DraftKings lower range focus was on bombers with recent strong form off the tee. The 6K range was tricky with the stats I selected. For example, Norlander was 33rd in my model (the highest of the 6K range players). Each of the above four players has categories they struggle in (most tied to putting and short game). Similar form paired with one good week on the greens can lead to a strong finish.
In addition, there are a number of lower 7K range players that ranked fairly high in my primary model. That list includes the likes of Lanto Griffin, Cameron Davis, Matt Jones and Carlos Ortiz.
Who do you have as your favorite PGA DFS Wells Fargo Sleepers on DraftKings? Chime in with your favorite plays below. Either that or stop by to praise or poke fun at mine.
Best of luck and as always, thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!
Image Credit: Golf Digest
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