TPC Craig Ranch makes its debut as host course for the 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson. With one week left until the PGA Championship at Kiawah Island, some players have taken a break, while others are in this week’s field. With enough big names landing in the Lonestar State (e.g. Bryson, Brooks and Rahm), there is a need to find some diamonds in the rough (a.k.a. cheaper options on DK). That brings me to this week’s PGA DFS AT&T Byron Nelson Sleepers, a list that outlines my favorite cheaper alternatives on DraftKings, as well as their long-shot odds to win.
Obviously the term “SLEEPER” can be interpreted in a number of different ways. In this case, it’s the lower cost players that stand out in key statistical areas, specifically the 6K Range on DraftKings.
Before I present this week’s picks, a few additional notes on TPC Craig Ranch:
- Again, TPC Craig Ranch is the new kid on the block, so the previous event was not held here
- The course (Par 72, 7,438 yards) was designed by former pro Tom Weiskopf. D.A. Weibring served as a consultant on the overall design
- The course features Zoysia fairways and Bentgrass greens, so if you are a stickler for putting stats, I did check comparisons for SG: Putting and SG: Putting on Bentgrass greens
- SG: Approach is arguably the most important stat in Fantasy Golf and should be key here
- Of the four Par 3’s, only one is under 200 yards – the 17th, at 171 yards
- The Par 5 5th appears to be the longest hole on the course, but doesn’t come close to 600 yards
- Rowlett Creek winds through the course and is listed to cross holes 14 times
- Many believe this will be a birdie fest if the winds stay down, so keep an eye on 1) Birdies or Better Gained and 2) the weather reports
- Current weather lists high temperatures in the lower 70’s to lower 80’s throughout the tournament, with winds on the light side Thursday, but gaining steam into the weekend (as high as 20mph)
- If you like to consider pairings, here is the current list of starting times for the opening two rounds of the tournament, as presented on Twitter by the PGA TOUR Communications account:
— PGA TOUR Communications (@PGATOURComms) May 11, 2021
I ran multiple models on Fantasy National and also checked key stats via the PGA TOUR website. The range of data I analyzed includes recent events and detail for the 2021 PGA TOUR season. Based off that data, here are my favorite 6K range sleepers on DraftKings, accompanied by their current odds to grab a WIN/Top 5/Top 10 at the event (via DraftKings Sportsbook).
PGA DFS AT&T Byron Nelson Sleepers: Top DraftKings 6K Range Plays
Roger Sloan (DK: $6,900, WINNER +17500, Top 5 +2800, Top 10 +1200)
I picked Sloan two weeks ago and nearly did again last week. Two weeks back, he missed the cut. Last week, he was in the mix at the Wells Fargo, but faded to T58. As for why I like him, he ranks 25th in the field (last 36 rounds via Fantasy National) in SG: Approach. He also cracks the top 10 in Par 4’s ranging from 450-500 yards, which TPC Craig Ranch has five at that length. He’s also is respectable in windier conditions (37th in SG: Total – last 36 rounds, moderate wind conditions) and has solid distance off the tee. His last top ten was in 2019, so it’s wise to limit your expectations.
Will Gordon (DK: $6,800, WINNER +30000, Top 5 +5000, Top 10 +2000)
Gordon disappointed me last week, but here I am again – a glutton for punishment. He is a long hitter and ranks 4th in Driving Distance, plus 24th in the field in SG: Off the Tee (both last 36 rounds played, via Fantasy National). Gordon also fares well in the lengthy approach shots, ranking 7th in Proximity: 200+ yards – also last 36 rounds. Add in the fact that he ranks 35th in SG: Total (windier conditions), and Will Gordon could be a factor this weekend. Statistically, over the last three events, he has struggled both on approach and putting. Still, he has gained Off the Tee in seven straight measured tournaments.
Sam Ryder (DK: $6,900, WINNER +30000, Top 5 +5000, Top 10 +2000)
Ryder has missed three straight cuts, but did have a T2 finish at the Corales Puntacana back in March. Prior to that runner-up, he finished 8th at the Honda and gained 5.0 strokes on Approach and 7.9 Tee to Green. Over the last 36 rounds (via Fantasy National), he’s 26th in the field in Birdie or Better Gained and 30th in SG: Putting on Bentgrass greens. He is also 36th in Driving Distance and respectable in other major categories. He’ll just need to right the ship following recent abysmal performances at both the Wells Fargo and Valero Texas Open.
Kyoung-Hoon Lee (DK: $6,900, WINNER +17500, Top 5 +2800, Top 10 +1200)
Many won’t realize that K.H. Lee was the outright leader for the majority of the first round at the Wells Fargo last week. That was until Phil raked a 64 and stole everyone’s attention. In the end, it was just a 58th place finish, but Lee has made four straight cuts. We all know that 6-for-6 lineups are key on DraftKings. For Lee, it’s always a struggle with the flat stick (he’s lost strokes putting in six straight events). Overall, he’s 28th in the field in SG: Off the Tee (last 36 rounds played). He is also strong in SG: Approach (44th) and Proximity from 175-200 yards (31st).
Last week’s 6K range picks were hit or miss at the Wells Fargo. However, I did pick Luke List, so if any of you read this and played him, that’s awesome. Considering I’m local to Charlotte these days, I also saw List perform at a high level last weekend. Also, for what it’s worth, I like List again this week, but his price tag is significantly higher ($8,400 on DraftKings).
As for this week in McKinney, Texas, there are mid-to-lower 7K range players that ranked high in my model. That list includes Doug Ghim, Wesley Bryan, Jhonattan Vegas, Tom Lewis and Sepp Straka.
Who do you have as your favorite PGA DFS AT&T Byron Nelson Sleepers on DraftKings? Chime in with your favorite plays below. Either that or stop by to praise or poke fun at mine.
Best of luck and as always, thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!
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