The PGA TOUR shifts gears to Innisbrook and the Valspar Championship. There are plenty of big names in this week’s field, including Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland, Patrick Reed, Paul Casey, Scottie Scheffler and more. At this difficult venue, a combination of big names and bargains might be the ideal fit. Although, the 6K range on DraftKings features next to no obvious selections. That brings me to my PGA DFS 2021 Valspar Sleepers, a list that outlines my favorite cheaper alternatives on DraftKings, as well as their long-shot odds to win.
Obviously the term “SLEEPER” can be interpreted in a number of different ways. In this case, it’s the lower cost players that stand out in key statistical areas, specifically the 6K Range on DraftKings.
Before I present this week’s picks, a few additional notes on Innisbrook (Copperhead):
- The 2020 edition of this tournament was canceled due to the pandemic
- Paul Casey has won the event the last two times
- In 2019, Casey gained in all major categories, including 11.2 strokes Tee to Green and 4.6 strokes on Approach. During his 2018 win, Casey lost 0.2 strokes off the tee, but gained five strokes on approach, 4.6 strokes around the green and 3.5 strokes putting
- Approach will be key this week, as it is during most weeks
- No need to focus on distance, but more so on scrambling, putting and essentially the avoidance of implosions. The tournament is likely to have a non-red figure cut line
- Weather conditions are set to be in the lower-to-mid 80’s throughout the week with winds ranging from 5-10 mph to 10-15mph
- If you like to consider pairings, here is the current list of starting times for the opening two rounds of the tournament, as presented on Twitter by the PGA TOUR Communications account:
Groupings and starting times for the first and second rounds of the Valspar Championship@PGATOUR | @ValsparChamp pic.twitter.com/q4vcZQZTao
— PGA TOUR Communications (@PGATOURComms) April 27, 2021
I ran multiple models on Fantasy National and also checked key stats via the PGA TOUR website. The range of data I analyzed includes recent events, history at Innisbrook and detail for the 2021 PGA TOUR season. Based off that data, here are my favorite 6K range sleepers on DraftKings, accompanied by their current odds to grab a WIN/Top 5/Top 10 at the event (via DraftKings Sportsbook).
PGA DFS 2021 Valspar Sleepers: Top DraftKings 6K Range Plays
Andrew Putnam (DK: $6,800, WINNER +25000, Top 5 +5000, Top 10 +1800)
Proceed with caution – but keep Putnam in mind, because I expect low ownership. Let’s clear out the bad: three straight missed cuts, including -9.1 in SG:Total at the Heritage. Putnam has lost strokes putting in two of the last three tournaments. There is good, though. Putnam is strongest on Bermuda greens and has three top ten finishes in the 2021 calendar year. He gained 6.1 strokes putting in a 4th place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Over the last 36 rounds (via Fantasy National), Putnam is 2nd in Scrambling Gained and 19th in Three Putt Avoidance.
James Hahn (DK: $6,900, WINNER +17500, Top 5 +2800, Top 10 +1200)
Hahn hasn’t played since THE PLAYERS (not counting the WD at the Honda, due to a rib injury). He has had a decent stretch in 2021. This includes a 10th place finish at the WMPO and a 15th at the Genesis. Overall, Hahn has gained on approach in three of his last four events. Over the last 36 rounds (via Fantasy National), James Hahn ranks 40th in the field in SG: Approach and 21st in SG: Putting. With over a month to heal, those ranks are enough to get behind if you are looking for a flier.
Cameron Percy (DK: $6,700, WINNER +25000, Top 5 +5000, Top 10 +1800)
Percy has gained strokes on approach in five straight recorded events (and 8 of 9). Over his last four tournaments, Percy missed two cuts, while adding a 29th place finish at THE PLAYERS and a 7th at the Puerto Rico Open. That doesn’t count a DQ at the Valero. Over the last 36 rounds played (via Fantasy National), Percy ranks 20th in SG: Approach and 1st in the field in Par 3’s 200-225 yards. Innisbrook (Copperhead) features five Par 3’s and two in this range.
Roger Sloan (DK: $6,500, WINNER +25000, Top 5 +4500, Top 10 +1800)
I hear the name Roger Sloan and immediately think Investment Banker. I don’t know why. As for the PGA TOUR, Sloan made the cut here in 2019 (T60). Not a sexy finish, but he does have two top 25 finishes in his last three events. The last time Sloan lost strokes on Approach was eight events ago (for him), at the Sony in January. Over the last 36 rounds played (via Fantasy National), Sloan ranks 36th in SG: Approach and 34th in SG: Putting. He is also 14th in Three Putt Avoidance and cracks the top 50 (44th) on the longer Par 3’s (200-225 yards).
Recent Sleepers: 2021 Masters
- Corey Conners (DK: $6,900, WINNER +9000, Top 5 +1000, Top 10 +400) – T8
- Jason Kokrak (DK: $6,900, WINNER +10000, Top 5 +1200, Top 10 +550) – 49
- Si Woo Kim (DK: $6,700, WINNER +15000, Top 5 +2000, Top 10 +900) – T12
- Matt Wallace (DK: $6,400, WINNER +12500, Top 5 +1400, Top 10 +750) – T34
Recent Sleepers: 2021 RBC Heritage
- Doug Ghim (DK: $6,900, WINNER +12500, Top 5 +1800, Top 10 +800) – T33
- Matthew NeSmith (DK: $6,900, WINNER +12500, Top 5 +2000, Top 10 +1000) – T48
- Chase Seiffert (DK: $6,700, WINNER +25000, Top 5 +4000, Top 10 +1800) – T42
- Chez Reavie (DK: $6,600, WINNER +17500, Top 5 +3300, Top 10 +1400) – MC
- Tom Hoge (DK: $6,400, WINNER +20000, Top 5 +3300, Top 10 +1400) – T25
Overall, a lot of long shots in this range. Who knows how they will perform, but each could really help out a DraftKings lineup – if you’re willing to take the risk. 6-for-6 lineups will be rare in this event.
Who do you have as your favorite PGA DFS 2021 Valspar Sleepers on DraftKings? Chime in with your favorite plays below. Either that or stop by to praise or poke fun at mine.
Best of luck and as always, thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!
All golf stats and data via PGATour.com, Fantasy National and DraftKings Sportsbook
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