We are already one week removed from Hideki’s historic Masters win for Japan. Now, the PGA TOUR shifts gears to Harbour Town and the RBC Heritage. This Pete Dye coastal course combines the potential for winds and a challenge of placement, with a heavy dose of quality approach game needed. The field this week is surprisingly strong considering it being just days removed from a green jacket covered major. While some big names take a break, many others will play, including Dustin Johnson, Webb Simpson, Will Zalatoris, Collin Morikawa and more. That brings me to my PGA DFS 2021 Heritage Sleepers, a list that outlines my favorite cheaper alternatives on DraftKings, as well as their long-shot odds to win. A stars and scrubs lineup may be just what the doctor ordered.
Obviously the term “SLEEPER” can be interpreted in a number of different ways. In this case, it’s the lower cost players that stand out in key statistical areas, specifically the 6K Range on DraftKings.
Before I present this week’s picks, a few additional notes on Harbour Town:
- For recent top finishers, Fantasy National outlines an emphasis on SG: Approach and SG: Putting
- This week’s sleepers has a hefty focus on recent approach game
- Course history is key to review, as well as all Pete Dye courses, because there are similarities in the design (and the types of players that have success at each venue)
- The smaller greens mean an increased focus in statistical categories such as Opportunities Gained, GIR, Proximity and Scrambling (for when you miss the smaller greens)
- Driving Distance is far from a factor this week, so no need to focus solely on bombers
- Check total strokes gained in windier conditions, as the current weather forecast indicates potential for higher winds on Thursday and Friday. Rain is also currently in the forecast for a good portion of the tournament window
I ran multiple models on Fantasy National and checked key stats via the PGA TOUR website. The range of data I analyzed includes recent events, history at Harbour Town and detail for the 2021 PGA TOUR season. Based off that data, here are my favorite 6K range sleepers on DraftKings, accompanied by their current odds to grab a WIN/Top 5/Top 10 at the event (via DraftKings Sportsbook).
PGA DFS 2021 Heritage Sleepers: Top DraftKings 6K Range Plays
Doug Ghim (DK: $6,900, WINNER +12500, Top 5 +1800, Top 10 +800)
Ghim has gained strokes on approach in eight straight tournaments. Yet, he finished 44th at the Valero and missed the cut at the Honda. Why? He lost nearly 12 strokes putting over the two tournaments combined. Even an average putting stretch could lead him closer to the 5th place finish he had at the AmEx back in January. Overall, Ghim is 9th in the field in SG: Approach (last 36 rounds) and 16th in Proximity. If the winds pick up in the opening two rounds, it’ll be interesting to see if those numbers falter, as he’s 100th in the field in total strokes gained (moderate wind conditions – last 24 rounds).
Matthew NeSmith (DK: $6,900, WINNER +12500, Top 5 +2000, Top 10 +1000)
If you’re a regular in these parts, you’ll know I pick NeSmith frequently. The majority of the time, he lets me down. Still, one can’t ignore the fact that NeSmith is 4th in the field in SG: Approach (last 36 rounds played) and 4th in Good Drives Gained (via Fantasy National). His record on Dye courses isn’t great, but he did post a T33 at Harbour Town last year. Overall, Matthew NeSmith has gained strokes on approach in seven of his last eight events. During that stretch, he’s posted 3 top 20’s and a top ten.
Chase Seiffert (DK: $6,700, WINNER +25000, Top 5 +4000, Top 10 +1800)
The odds on Seiffert surprise me a bit – to the point that I feel a need to check the stats again. This is the same guy that gained 7.9 strokes on approach at the Honda last month. That led to a 3rd place finish. He is also 11th in the field on Pete Dye courses (last 24 rounds played, via Fantasy National). Overall, he’s 72nd in Proximity (last 36 rounds), so he may need to be effective with his scrambling.
Chez Reavie (DK: $6,600, WINNER +17500, Top 5 +3300, Top 10 +1400)
Reavie’s ownership is projected (and expected) to be low, and that’s one reason he’s intriguing. Two straight missed cuts will make some DFS owners shy away, especially when you lose 6.1 strokes putting at THE PLAYERS. Reavie also is weakest on Bermuda greens. On the positive end, he has gained strokes on approach in four of his last five events, including 7.0 at the AT&T Pro-Am, where he finished 16th. Over the last 36 rounds played (via Fantasy National), Reavie is 7th in the field in SG: Approach, 4th in Opportunities Gained and 2nd in Proximity. That’s enough to peak my curiosity.
Tom Hoge (DK: $6,400, WINNER +20000, Top 5 +3300, Top 10 +1400)
Hoge has competed well in recent events, finishing 12th at the Valero and 22nd at THE PLAYERS. Like the others in the list, he has gained strokes on approach in seven straight events. Overall, he’s 17th in SG: Approach (last 36 rounds) and 25th in the field on Pete Dye courses (last 24 rounds). He also ranks 54th in windier conditions (SG: Total – last 24 rounds).
Last week’s Sleepers: 2021 Masters
- Corey Conners (DK: $6,900, WINNER +9000, Top 5 +1000, Top 10 +400) – T8
- Jason Kokrak (DK: $6,900, WINNER +10000, Top 5 +1200, Top 10 +550) – 49
- Si Woo Kim (DK: $6,700, WINNER +15000, Top 5 +2000, Top 10 +900) – T12
- Matt Wallace (DK: $6,400, WINNER +12500, Top 5 +1400, Top 10 +750) – T34
All four of my sleepers from The Masters made the cut. On top of that, Corey Conners was near the top of the leaderboard heading to the final nine. That’s a week that I will take every time, especially at a major.
Who do you have as your favorite PGA DFS 2021 Heritage Sleepers on DraftKings? Chime in with your favorite plays below. Either that or stop by to praise or poke fun at mine.
Best of luck and as always, thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!
Image Credit: PGA.com
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