The Florida stretch ends with the 2021 Honda Classic at PGA National. After an exciting week at THE PLAYERS that saw Justin Thomas hoist the trophy, the season continues at one of the tour’s most difficult venues. Get ready, because it’s “Bear Claw” time! This Jack Nicklaus redesign is sure to challenge the game’s best (well, kinda), with a focus on approach game and smart play. In what is a not-so-elite field, the navigation process may be a bit of a challenge. Finding the right sleepers on DraftKings will be key. This leads me to my PGA DFS 2021 Honda Sleepers, a list that outlines my favorite cheaper alternatives on DraftKings, as well as their long-shot odds to win. Each serves as an option to combine with any of the pricier DFS options of your choice. This week, that means Sungjae Im, Lee Westwood, Joaquin Niemann, Adam Scott, among others.
Obviously the term “SLEEPER” can be interpreted in a number of different ways. In this case, it’s the lower cost players that stand out in key statistical areas, specifically the 6K Range on DraftKings.
If you followed last week’s sleepers at THE PLAYERS Championship, it featured 3-of-4 that made the cut, including Brian Harman, who finished T3 and collected $885,000. Charley Hoffman also cracked the top 20 and Keegan Bradley finished in the top 30.
Before I present this week’s picks, a few additional notes for PGA National:
- During his 2020 victory at PGA National, Sungjae Im gained 12.3 strokes Tee to Green and 6.2 strokes on Approach. He also gained off the tee, around the green and putting.
- 2019 winner Keith Mitchell also gained in all major categories. That includes 11.9 strokes Tee to Green, 6.1 on Approach and 3.5 Around the Green. That’s a similar trend to Sungjae Im.
- Like with TPC Sawgrass, there are a lot of bunkers and water hazards, so you will want to keep a close on Scrambling Gained and even Sand Saves Gained.
- Consider that this is also a Jack Nicklaus redesign (2014), where Approach game is a major focus, as well as playing strategic shots into the green and managing to get up and down in difficult situations. That’s why I focused on Approach, Around the Green, Scrambling and more.
- The weather forecast is set to feature some potential windy conditions, as outlined below via PGA TOUR Communications on Twitter. I took a closer look at players that play well in windy conditions.
- If you like to consider pairings, here is the current list of starting times for the opening two rounds of the tournament, as presented on Twitter by the PGA TOUR Communications account:
Partly cloudy and breezy conditions can be expected for the @TheHondaClassic pro-am. Temperatures will be warm this afternoon with highs in the low to mid 80s. @DTNWeather @PGATOUR @PGATOURComms #ThinkWeather pic.twitter.com/nGxxz7lLEN
— Stewart Williams (@pgawxman1) March 17, 2021
— PGA TOUR Communications (@PGATOURComms) March 16, 2021
I ran a few models on Fantasy National and checked stats on the PGA TOUR website, with a primary focus tied to my favorite stats for the event. I also checked numbers for the 2021 PGA TOUR season, as well as for PGA National performance, data tied to Nicklaus design courses, and more. Based off that data, here are my favorite 6K range sleepers on DraftKings, accompanied by their odds to win the event (via Bovada).
PGA DFS 2021 Honda Sleepers: Top DraftKings 6K Range Plays
Jim Furyk (DK: $6,900, +12500)
Let’s give the old man some credit. He can still play. Look also at guys like Stewart Cink and Lee Westwood, older players that have either won tournaments in the last year or had recent runner-ups. Furyk has a T9 finish here in 2019, while also adding in two recent made cuts (T26 at Genesis and T21 at the AT&T Pro-Am). Add in some recent numbers, including 7th in the field in SG: Approach, 6th in Proximity and 1st in GIR Gained (all last 50 rounds played). He has also proven to play well in windier conditions.
Pat Perez (DK: $6,500, +20000)
The zany veteran has alternated missed cuts with solid finishes, most notably a recent T26 at the AT&T Pro-Am. Still, it’s often smart to look to the veterans to navigate through the difficult courses, especially those with a sense of humor that can handle a course’s twists and turns. On top of that, Perez is 36th in the field in SG: Approach, 27th in SG: Putting and 26th in Proximity (all last 50 rounds). Toss in a 7th ranking in Sand Saves Gained and 16th in Scrambling on a course loaded with bunkers and well, that’s promising, especially when you are looking for bargains.
Cameron Percy (DK: $6,900, +15000)
This week definitely features a group of veterans. Percy is a bit streaky, and while he made the cut last season here, it was just a T61 finish. He does, however, have a strong recent run, including a T7 finish at the Puerto Rico Open, a T21 at the AT&T Pro-Am and a T29 last week at THE PLAYERS. Over the last 50 rounds played, he’s 6th in the field in SG: Approach, 9th in Proximity and 7th in GIR Gained. If the winds pick up, that could pose a problem, considering he’s 107th in the field in total strokes gained in windier conditions.
Wesley Bryan (DK: $6,800, +12500)
I debated sticking with veterans like Jason Dufner, but pivoted to Bryan for a few reasons. For one, his odds tell a story at +12500, as opposed to others that were at +20000. He does have a T4 finish at PGA National back in 2017 and made his most recent cut at the Genesis (T43 finish). Statistically, over the last 50 rounds versus the field, Bryan is 17th in SG: Approach, 58th in SG: Putting, 24th in Proximity, and 26th in Scrambling Gained. He also cracks the top 30 in overall total strokes gained on both PGA National and Jack Nicklaus courses. He’s an intriguing option at this price point.
Other Bargains to Consider on DraftKings – Lower 7K Range
Zach Johnson ($7,400), Ryan Moore ($7,300), Matt Jones ($7,400) and James Hahn ($7,300)
Last Week’s Sleepers: 2021 THE PLAYERS Championship (by DraftKings 6K Range and Odds)
- Emiliano Grillo (DK: $6,700, +20000) – MC – +1, missed cut by one shot
- Keegan Bradley (DK: $6,900, +15000) – T29
- Charley Hoffman (DK: $6,800, +20000) – T17, T4 through two rounds
- Brian Harman (DK: $6,900, +20000) – T3
Who do you have as your favorite PGA DFS 2021 Honda Sleepers on DraftKings? Chime in with your favorite plays below. Either that or stop by to praise or poke fun at mine.
Also, if you read last week’s post and rostered Brian Harman, chime in via the comments below! I’d love to hear about some returning readers.
Best of luck and as always, thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!
Image Credit: Golf Digest Twitter
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