The PGA TOUR season continues this week with the 2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Although, due to the lingering pandemic, there will be no amateurs participating at this year’s event. In addition, the tournament will take place at just two courses (instead of three), Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill. Spyglass alternates on the first two days and Pebble owns the weekend. With fewer elite names in the this year’s field, finding diamonds in the rough will be significantly more important. This leads me to my PGA DFS Pebble Beach Sleepers, a list that outlines cheaper DraftKings alternatives, as well as their long-shot odds, via Bovada. Each could serve as an option to combine with pricier (and safer) DFS options.
Oh, and obviously, the term “SLEEPER” can be interpreted in a number of different ways. In this case, it’s the lower cost players that stand out in key statistical areas, specifically the 6K Range on DraftKings.
Before I present this week’s picks, a few additional notes:
- Both Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill are shorter courses, taking away the importance of Driving Distance and focusing more on approach, accuracy and proximity.
- Pebble Beach’s smaller greens will mean an increased importance in stats around not just proximity, but short game (SG: Around the Green and Scrambling). Those players that get up and down following a missed green will have a much better shot at competing.
- The weather forecast is something to keep an eye on this weekend, too. As of today (February 10), there’s temps in the mid-50’s and a significant chance for rain on Thursday. Friday won’t have rain, but cooler temperatures and winds from the NW at 10-20 mph. Saturday’s winds are now forecast to be more significant, upwards of 30mph. You’ll need to keep an eye on solid wind players.
I ran a few models on Fantasy National featuring my favorite key stats for the event (mostly covering the last 36 rounds played). Based off that data, here are my top 6K range sleepers on DraftKings, accompanied by their odds to win the event.
Get ready to be brave, because there are some obscure names on the list – and oh, if any of those guys are reading this, then… you’re going to do great.
PGA DFS Pebble Beach Sleepers: Top 6K Range Plays on DraftKings
Josh Teater (DK: $6,600, +25000)
Teater has played just once since the holidays, a T40 finish at the American Express. He was -0.8 in SG: Approach that week, while gaining 0.9 strokes around the green. Over his last 36 rounds played in moderate to very windy conditions, Teater is 104th in the field in SG: Total. Not ideal, so we’ll see how he handles the potential for blustery weather. Despite those numbers, he is 4th in the field in SG: Putting on Poa greens (last 36 rounds). He is also 6th in Proximity from 100-125 yards, where most approach shots land in this tournament. Teater is also 50th in SG: Approach and finished T45 here in 2019. While that’s simply a respectable finish, there are some aspects of his game that translate here.
Seung-yul Noh (DK: $6,300, +25000)
Here’s a shot in the dark, but you can’t argue the price tag. Seung-yul Noh has played in few tournaments since returning from a two-year mandatory military service in South Korea. Prior to the hiatus, he posted a T8 finish here in 2017 – so that’s something to keep an eye on. Despite two missed cuts in recent weeks, there are overall general positive stats to consider. He is 11th in the field in SG: Around the Green and 27th in SG: Approach, positive ranks despite limited playing time and many missed cuts. He has also gained in SG: Approach in four of his last six tournaments, including an 11th place finish at the Travelers last June. Finally, he’s 41st in Proximity from 100-125 yards. So again, limited playing time, but some interesting numbers to consider at this price point.
Jason Dufner (DK: $6,600, +30000)
There’s just something about veterans that have been there before. He isn’t “Dufnering” anymore, but Dufner does have his moments on the PGA TOUR. As for recent stats, Dufner is 9th in SG: Approach (last 36 rounds) and 3rd in Proximity from 100-125 yards, both key areas to consider at Pebble Beach. He is also 45th in the field in total strokes gained in windier conditions, which is intriguing considering the weather forecast this weekend. Overall, his game hasn’t been great in recent weeks, but he has gained on approach in two of the last three tournaments. Dufner made the cut here in his last two attempts, but did not finish inside the top 50. Maybe this week will be different.
Chris Baker (DK: $6,200, +30000)
Baker intrigues me for a few reasons. For one, the price tag – $6,200? He played here last year and finished T38 – not bad, considering the DK cost (especially if you love some of the upper-tier names). He did miss the cut in his last two tournaments, but made the previous two. He gained on approach in each of the last two tournaments, despite missing the cut – a good sign. Overall, for the last 36 rounds played, he ranks 15th in the field in SG: Approach and 18th in Proximity from 100-125 yards. His numbers gaining strokes putting on Poa greens is also respectable (53rd). Add in 51st in proximity from 200+ yards. Overall, statistically, Baker is an interesting option in a less than elite field.
Other 6K Players to Consider (higher on model than Dufner and Baker)
Hank Lebioda ($6,400), Joseph Bramlett ($6,700) and Ted Potter Jr. ($6,800)
Who do you have as your favorite PGA DFS Pebble Beach Sleepers on DraftKings? Chime in with your favorite plays below. Either that or stop by to praise or poke fun at mine.
Best of luck and as always, thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!
All stats and data via PGATour.com, Fantasy National and Bovada
Image Credit: PGA.com
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