The PGA TOUR season returns with the 2021 Sentry Tournament of Champions, featuring a field of 42 players that includes the 30 that made last season’s TOUR Championship. Tackling the Plantation Course at Kapalua, this is sure to be a dandy. With the limited field, it doesn’t make sense to tackle my usual list of sleepers on DraftKings. Instead, I looked at key statistical categories that make sense for this venue. With these stats in mind, I’m providing a key strength and weakness for the top 20 players (by price on DraftKings). The strengths and weaknesses are tied to each player’s last 24 rounds played. As 2021 kicks off, The Wife Hates Sports presents its PGA DFS Sentry Tournament of Champions spectacular!
Was that dramatic enough for you?
Yeah, probably not.
Hey, I tried.
Either way, here are some key statistics that intrigued me for this tournament, with data pulled from both Fantasy National and PGATOUR.com:
- SG: Approach: Approach numbers are key in most tournaments and 2020 TOC champion Justin Thomas gained 5.7 strokes on approach last year
- SG: Tee to Green: Another stat that has a lot of weight in key tournaments
- Birdie or Better Gained: You can’t win the big tournaments without scoring well, so I like to keep an eye on the players that are consistently landing in red figures
- 3 Putt Avoidance: Big greens at Kapalua, so solid lag putters (or top notch proximity) will be key
- Proximity – As mentioned above, pin seeking will help with the course’s large greens
- SG: Total at Kapalua – Experience on this course is a good measurement
- Driving Distance – Not as important this time, but there are some lengthy Par 4’s and four Par 5’s
- Scrambling Gained – Being able to get up and down in key situations is always a plus
- Par 4: 500+ yards – The two toughest holes last year were both lengthy Par 4’s
- Par 3: 200-225 yards – Among the top five toughest holes last year included two long Par 3’s
I ran a few models on Fantasy National featuring various combinations of these stats for the event (mostly covering the last 24 rounds played by the field).
Based off that data (and compared with others in the field of 42 players), here are what I consider to be the top strengths and weaknesses for the top 20 players by cost on DraftKings. The rank of each player (versus the field) by the listed category is also added in parentheses:
PGA DFS Sentry Tournament of Champions: Top Player Strengths and Weaknesses
Dustin Johnson (DK: $11,000)
Strength: Take a Number – DJ is 1st in the field in six of my key stats – yes, that’s insane
Weakness: Scrambling Gained (27) – The only stat he ranks low in over the last 24 rounds
Justin Thomas (DK: $10,700)
Strength: Birdie or Better Gained (2) – Pick your poison, he’s top 5 in six key stats
Weakness: 3 Putt Avoidance (18) – Occasionally falters on the greens, but not often
Jon Rahm (DK: $10,400)
Strength: Proximity (1) – Leads the field in Proximity and is 2nd in SG: Tee to Green (last 24 rounds)
Weakness: Par 3 200-225 yards (30) – Only last 24 rounds, but most key stats, he’s top 15
Bryson DeChambeau (DK: $10,200)
Strength: Driving Distance (2) – Also 8th in SG: Tee to Green, but none of this is a surprise
Weakness: SG: Approach (31) – Also 32nd in Proximity, but the big bomber can really putt
Xander Schauffele (DK: $10,000)
Strength: Birdie or Better Gained (3) – Also 3rd in SG: Total at Kapalua – a lethal combination
Weakness: Proximity (25) – Hard to find a lot of key stats outside the top 20 for him
Patrick Cantlay (DK: $9,800)
Strength: Scrambling Gained (4) – Gets out of trouble like a boss
Weakness: Proximity (33) – Behind the competition over the last 24 rounds played
Patrick Reed (DK: $9,600)
Strength: Birdie or Better Gained (5) – Often takes advantage of the opportunities he gets
Weakness: Par 3’s 200-225 yards (40) – Recent struggles on the longer Par 3 holes
Webb Simpson (DK: $9,400)
Strength: Scrambling Gained (1) – A master scrambling and in a lot of other key categories
Weakness: Driving Distance (35) – Not long off the tee, so if you prefer that stat, look elsewhere
Viktor Hovland (DK: $9,200)
Strength: Proximity (5) – When hot, he goes pin seeking
Weakness: 3 Putt Avoidance (36) – The putter can fail him from time to time
Hideki Matsuyama (DK: $9,000)
Strength: SG: Total at Kapalua (2) – Also top five in SG: Approach, SG: Tee to Green and Scrambling
Weakness: Proximity (27) – For a precision iron player, this is a bit surprising
Tony Finau (DK: $8,900)
Strength: SG: Approach (2) – Just needs to close
Weakness: Scrambling Gained (24) – Needs to be more consistent when in trouble
Collin Morikawa (DK: $8,800)
Strength: Proximity (6) – Also top ten in SG: Approach and SG: Tee to Green
Weakness: 3 Putt Avoidance (33) – Also surprisingly 29th in Birdie or Better Gained
Harris English (DK: $8,700)
Strength: Scrambling Gained (2) – Also 4th in Birdie or Better Gained and strong in long Par 4’s and 3’s
Weakness: SG: Approach (22) – Also 21st in Proximity
Daniel Berger (DK: $8,600)
Strength: SG: Approach (10) – Also top ten in Scrambling and Par 3’s 200-225 yards
Weakness: SG: Tee to Green (23) – Also 25th in 3 Putt Avoidance
Scottie Scheffler (DK: $8,500)
Strength: Par 4 500+ yards (3) – The birdie machine has played well on the long Par 4’s
Weakness: SG: Approach (32) – His recent approach game does not rank well in the field
Cameron Smith (DK: $8,400)
Strength: 3 Putt Avoidance (2) – Solid recent form with the putter
Weakness: Driving Distance (33) – Not long off the tee, which also leads to long Par 4 struggles (40th)
Joaquin Niemann (DK: $8,300)
Strength: Birdie or Better Gained (6) – Also top ten in Driving Distance (4) and Scrambling (7)
Weakness: 3 Putt Avoidance (28) – Occasionally is known to collapse on the greens
Sungjae Im (DK: $8,200)
Strength: SG: Approach (6) – His approach game has been on point over last 24 rounds
Weakness: Par 4 500+ yards (33) – Recent form on longest Par 4’s has been sub-par
Adam Scott (DK: $8,100)
Strength: 3 Putt Avoidance (5) – Cracks top five in avoiding collapses on the greens
Weakness: Scrambling Gained (35) – Bottom ten in getting out of trouble
Abraham Ancer (DK: $8,000)
Strength: Par 3 200-225 yards (13) – Recent form on the longer Par 3’s has been strong
Weakness: Driving Distance (37) – Not long off the tee, which won’t break him here
That’s the list. I’m curious if this format helps DFS players and betters out there. Perhaps you like to focus on specific stats more than others and this triggered you? Let me know via the comments.
Also, who do you have as your favorite plays for the PGA DFS Sentry Tournament of Champions on DraftKings? Chime in with your favorite picks below.
Best of luck and as always, thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!
All stats and data via PGATour.com and Fantasy National
