This is it – the 2020 TOUR Championship, with $15 million smackers on the line. While I’m not sure if anyone refers to money as “smackers” anymore, I am sure that this is the finale of a bizarre 2020 PGA TOUR season. With only 30 players in the field, creativity will be key when you structure your lineups on DraftKings (and any other site for that matter). Therefore, instead of creating a list of sleepers (my norm), I have decided to instead outline the Achilles Heel for the top seven players. That’s the top seven – a Sexy Seven, if you go by the standards at The Wife Hates Sports – by price tag on DraftKings. This is my Achilles’ Heel list for the PGA DFS 2020 TOUR Championship.
When I say Achilles Heel, I mean the area in which a player has not performed well in comparison to the field – in this case, the 30 final players looking to win the TOUR Championship. This is considering a handful of stats that make sense for East Lake GC.
This is not the time for fore-play at The Wife Hates Sports, but instead the time to focus on the Achilles Heel for the top seven players (by cost on DraftKings) for the 2020 TOUR Championship.
I ran a model on Fantasy National focusing either on the last three months (restart tournaments) or the 2020 season and here are some stats to be concerned about:
PGA DFS 2020 TOUR Championship: Achilles Heel for Top 7 on DraftKings
Dustin Johnson ($15,200)
It’s pretty clear just how hot DJ is considering his win at The Northern Trust and runner-up finishes at both the PGA and BMW Championships. Still, when combing through some key stats for the final dance, there are a few areas that he might be vulnerable.
- Johnson is 16th in the field in total strokes gained at East Lake over the last three years. That includes a T29 finish last season.
- Over the last three months, Johnson is 26th in the field in Scrambling
- He is also 26th in the field on Fast and Lightning Fast greens over the course of the 2020 year (per a model run via Fantasy National)
Jon Rahm ($12,700)
Sure, Rahm has had a few penalties and mental lapses over the last month or so, but one can’t deny the heroic finish in last week’s win at the BMW. He also has done a much better job at corralling his anger. Despite all the success, does Rahm have enough in the tank to win the big one? In particular, a few possible statistical concerns for Jon Rahm are:
- Rahm is actually 19th in the field in Strokes Gained on Approach
- He’s 18th in the field in Strokes Gained Putting on Bermuda greens (2020 season)
Justin Thomas ($11,900)
Steady and rock-solid, JT has been in the thick of it for weeks. Then again, since his win at the WGC-St. Jude, Thomas has failed to finish higher than T25. That luck could change this week considering his success at East Lake, where he has finished T7 or higher in each of the last four years. Despite that, the following areas could be of concern:
- For starters, he’s 19th in the field in Fairways Gained over the last 3 months
- Thomas is hit or miss on the greens, and statistically, he’s 21st in the field on Fast or Lightning Fast greens (via Fantasy National) during the 2020 season
- JT is also 22nd (of 30) on Bermuda greens in 2020
Webb Simpson ($11,000)
Simpson took last week off to rest and only fell back one spot (and therefore one stroke). Now, we get to see if the rest will help. Overall, at East Lake, Webb has finished T16 or higher in each of the last three years, including a T4 finish in 2018. He is very steady and the stats show that. Then again…
- Simpson is 21st in the field in Driving Distance and while that’s not a big deal, this is a long Par 70 and if he’s not accurate off the tee, the distance could become a challenge
- He’s in the field’s top half in every other key stat, with Scrambling (15th) being the second lowest
Collin Morikawa ($10,400)
Collin Morikawa has proven that he can shine on the big stage. That is, until he has to hold the championship trophy. Still, since his win at the PGA, Morikawa has a T20 finish at the BMW and a missed cut at The Northern Trust. Playing in his first TOUR Championship, it will be interesting to see how he performs in the following categories:
- Putting – for the 2020 season, Morikawa is 29th in the field on Fast and Lightning Fast greens and 28th on Bermuda greens. He’ll need to be elite with his irons to limit the misses on the greens.
- Distance – He’s 24th in Driving Distance, but that has not impacted him before, so will it this week? Considering he’s 2nd in Fairways Gained, that is unlikely.
Bryson DeChambeau ($10,100)
The shine has worn off when it comes to the Bryson hype. Sure, he hits the ball a mile, but the distance is no longer translating into top finishes and victories. Since his T4 finish at the PGA, Bryson has a missed cut at The Northern Trust and a 50th place finish at the BMW. His past history is strong at East Lake, so it will be interesting to see how his new frame can handle the course. Also, he’ll need to improve in the following areas:
- 25th in Fairways Gained – he’s hitting the ball a mile, but all over the place
- 27th in Strokes Gained Approach – the distance isn’t translating
Rory McIlroy ($9,700)
Now a Dad (welcome to the world, Poppy!), Rory can focus more on repeating. I mean, at least for this weekend. It has to be a weight off his shoulders knowing his wife is ok and baby is healthy. Struggling at times since the restart, McIlroy finished T12 at the BMW. As for East Lake, he won last year and in 2016, while adding in a T7 in 2018. His recent form, though:
- McIlroy is in the middle-of-the-pack in a few key areas, including Fairways Gained (18th), 17th in Strokes Gained Approach and 15th in GIR gained
- He is 29th (of 30) in Scrambling over the last three months – a big surprise to me
- Rory’s putting has been hit or miss, landing 19th on Fast and Lightning Fast Greens (via Fantasy National) and 25th in the field on Bermuda greens – for all 2020 applicable tournaments
Who do you like to win the TOUR Championship? What about your favorite pick in the PGA DFS 2020 TOUR Championship lineups? Which player hoists the trophy?
Chime in via the comments below and as always, thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!
All stats and data via PGATour.com and Fantasy National