The 2020 FedEx Cup Playoffs continue this week with the second of three tournaments. The field is narrowed down to the top 70 players in the standings. Webb Simpson (currently 3rd) has withdrawn to get rest for next week’s TOUR Championship. Even with Webb’s absence, there are still plenty of options to consider in each price range on DraftKings. As always, if you want to have success in PGA DFS, you will also need to fade the right players. Specifically, I considered a handful of statistical categories when selecting my PGA DFS BMW Championship Fades.
When it comes to this list, I decided to pick ONE FADE from each price range on DraftKings.
So, this is no time for “fore-play” at The Wife Hates Sports, but instead time to pick fades for the 2020 BMW Championship. I ran a few models on Fantasy National featuring my favorite stats for this tournament (covering the last 36 rounds for all 70 players originally listed in the field). All ranks included below are based off my favorite model.
Here are my top fades on DraftKings for each price range:
PGA DFS BMW Championship Fades on DraftKings (per Price Range)
10-11K Range – Jon Rahm ($11,000)
For one, picking Webb Simpson is a cop out, as the dude withdrew today to get rest prior to the TOUR Championship. Otherwise, each player in this range lands in the top ten in my model. So, picking Rahm isn’t because I’m completely against the guy. I just like JT better and he costs less. The projected ownership between the two (via Fantasy National) is also just a few percent apart. I also like Bryson more, as well – and he’s also cheaper on DraftKings. JT is the better ball striker, but just has been streaky with the putter. Bryson can go low and get on track quickly and considering this is a no cut event, we don’t have to worry about him packing his bags early.
9K Range – Jason Day ($9,200)
Has the shine finally worn off? Quite honestly, I’m not just picking Day because he missed the cut at the Northern Trust last week. He lands in the lowest spot in my model for this price range – and it’s not close. His Proximity numbers are not great (36th in the field, last 36 rounds – 55th in windier conditions). He’s 42nd in Opportunities Gained, as well. You need opportunities to make more birdies and birdies are a major key in no cut events. He’ll need to pin seek more or ride a red hot putter. Plain and simple, I like the other options in this range a lot better. Lower ranges, too.
8K Range – Harris English ($8,300)
English is projected to be in the teens in ownership percentage, which is one reason I’ll avoid. He’s had a really solid year and last week he was the runner-up to Dustin Johnson. His recent form includes five finishes inside the top 25, four of those inside the top 20. He didn’t play in the last no cut event, for one. He is also 53rd in the field in driving distance – and this is a long par 70 course. His proximity numbers are near the back of the field. Unless he continues to gain a lot of strokes putting, he won’t make another run. In the end, the ownership projections scare me the most and I can find other options in this range that I’m more comfortable with.
7K Range – Russell Henley ($7,800)
This one may come back to bite me. Henley is the hot hand. With back-to-back top ten finishes, he is projected to be the highest owned in the 7K range (via Fantasy National). That shifts me off of him and to a number of others at a lower cost. Sure, Henley has been stellar in key categories like SG: Ball Striking (4th) and SG: Approach (1st). On the other hand, he’s 58th in the field in SG: Putting and last in Driving Distance. This is a longer Par 70 that is said to have a US Open feel. There is also added pressure to jump more than 30 spots to make the final. It may be tough for him to stay in the mix by Sunday.
6K Range – Dylan Frittelli ($6,500)
Is it really fading a 6K range player? Yeah, probably not. Either way, I wouldn’t play a lot of guys in this range, but one of the more popular options is Dylan Frittelli, because of his hot stretch in recent weeks. Sure, he has been on a good run and his ownership projections are up because of it. But I checked a lot of key statistical categories and the best rank for him was Birdies or Better Gained (33rd over the last 36 rounds). Everything else landed in the bottom half of the field. If you ask me, there are better lower ownership options in this range.
This is another new format that I’m testing out in my expansion of DFS material. When I officially kick off the podcast, I’ll be featuring material such as this, too. If you like this more than some of my other works, please let me know. I’m looking for honest feedback.
Who do you have as your top PGA DFS BMW Championship Fades? Chime in with picks below. Either that or stop by to praise or poke fun at mine.
See also: PGA DFS 2020 BMW Championship Sleepers
Best of luck and as always, thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!