Exiting a two-week stretch at “Jack’s Place”, the PGA Tour sets its sights on the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities. Like the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit a few weeks back, this is just the second time on the PGA schedule for this event, making the historical data a bit limited. Despite that, there are still key factors and course traits to consider when analyzing the slate. It all depends on where you want your focus to be. Specifically, I considered a handful of stats when selecting my PGA DFS 2020 3M Open Sleepers.
Obviously, the term “SLEEPER” can be interpreted in a number of different ways. In this case, it’s the lower cost players that stand out in key statistical areas, specifically the 6K range.
With very few elite players in this field, the 6K range is nowhere near as loaded as last week.
But this is no time for fore-play at The Wife Hates Sports, but instead the time to pick sleepers for the 2020 3M Open. So if you are looking to roster Tony Finau, Brooks Koepka, Paul Casey or Dustin Johnson, it will help to roster 6K range player to counter the hefty price tag.
For more detail on the course, see my Honey Do List for the 2020 3M Open, which includes a few tournament details and stats that I focused on. Regarding the stats below, I ran a model on Fantasy National featuring my favorite categories (all covering the last 36 rounds for players in the field). Oh, and if you haven’t heard of Fantasy National, I’d highly recommend it.
Here are my favorite sleepers this week:
PGA DFS 2020 3M Open Sleepers: 6K Range Players to Consider on DraftKings
Chesson Hadley ($6,900)
Hadley is my favorite low-range player this week, as he really pops statistically in key areas. For comparison, I loved both Henrik Norlander and Kevin Na last week at the Memorial. Over the last 36 rounds, Hadley is 8th in SG: Ball Striking, 2nd in Birdies or Better Gained and 1st in SG on the Par 5’s. The Par 5’s will be key on this course, considering last year’s numbers that yielded a large volume of both birdies and eagles. Hadley is also 23rd in Proximity, which is key considering the larger greens at TPC Twin Cities. Finally, he has made three of four cuts since the break, including a T23 finish at the Charles Schwab. He simply checks a lot of boxes for me.
Shawn Stefani ($6,300)
The $6,300 price tag will really help if you are looking to roster one of the elite names. On top of that, Stefani is 2nd in the field in strokes gained on Par 5’s (Last 36 rounds), trailing only the aforementioned Chesson Hadley. He’s also a very reasonable 37th in Birdies or Better Gained and cracks the top 50 in total strokes gained in windier conditions, via the model I ran (the forecast calls for windier conditions, especially on Friday). To top it all off, Stefani finished T15 at the 2019 3M Open.
Vaughn Taylor ($6,800)
Not a sexy pick, but Taylor is 12th in Birdies or Better Gained (last 36 rounds). Birdie makers will have success here. He’s also 4th in Proximity and 16th in total strokes gained during recent rounds with windy conditions. His success on the Par 5’s leave less to be desired, so that could come back to bite him. Make the cut and he could be in the mix come Sunday afternoon.
Matthew NeSmith ($6,900)
I’m a glutton for punishment – I’ll start with that. If you run models and love to analyze stats, there are always a few players that regularly show up at the top of your list. NeSmith is that guy for me. I’ve played him in each of the last three weeks and he’s burned me each time. This week, I’ve admittedly cut back on my NeSmith usage, but because I’m stubborn, I’m including him here. Why? Well, he’s due, for one. That and I want to include a fourth player. In the model I ran, NeSmith sits 16th in SG: Ball Striking and cracks the Top 25 in three putt avoidance, a stat I happen to like in this tournament.
Who do you have as your favorite sleepers for the PGA DFS 2020 3M Open? Chime in with your favorite plays below. Either that or stop by to praise or poke fun at mine.
Best of luck and as always, thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!