It’s seriously five days until Christmas? That means it’s time for “The Barber” to return. He’s the gift that keeps on giving. Not just as a good friend, but also because of his supreme prognostication. After all, he’s one of our best guest pickers. He doesn’t “pick your knows” like I’ve been doing for the majority of the season. I got the puns, guys. I got the puns. Then again, last week, I cut my deficit significantly after snagging my top three confidence picks. Let’s hope that continues through the end of the year. The SportsChump and I are back and we are moving forward with our Week 16 Football Picks and Top Bets.

Contest Reminder

This is a season long contest with potential prizes going out to our winners, so if you want to join in on the fun, drop a comment here or over at the land of the SportsChump.We take our top five games of the week against the spread. If you beat us and go undefeated, that leads to fun prizes and heaps of praise on our websites.

With that said, here are our TOP FIVE Best Bets for the week, including my Week 16 Football Picks and Top Bets. The list is ranked in order of confidence, from 50 “dollars” down to $10.

Week 16 Football Picks and Top Bets – The Barber is Back Edition

KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports

$50: Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at Washington Commanders

The Eagles can take the division with a win. Washington is playing for nothing. Unless you count the satisfaction of the rival Cowboys being eliminated. Washington ranks 31st in total defense. Only the Bengals have allowed more yards per game. The Commanders rank in the bottom five in run defense. That leads us to the Saquon Barkley show. It’s been an uneven season for Philly’s star back, but he’s been better as of late. Expect Barkley to shine. Washington is a -12 in turnover differential and has just eight takeaways on the season. There’s only so much playing for pride will take you, especially when Jayden Daniels isn’t running the offense. Eagles cover on the road.

$40: New York Jets at New Orleans Saints (-4)

Tyler Shough has been a pleasant surprise for the Saints. Despite so many injuries in the RB room, Shough has held his own. In back-to-back wins over the Bucs and Panthers, Shough was 37-for-52 (71%) with 416 passing yards, 87 rushing yards, and 3 total TD. For the Jets, Brady Cook gets another start. New Orleans ranks just outside the top ten in total defense (311.2 ypg allowed). The Saints rank 6th against the pass. Overall, both teams have struggled mightily this season, but the Jets are a -17 in turnover differential. That’s not just riding on the struggle bus, but driving it off a cliff. Facing a Saints team that’s gaining confidence on the road? You know which way I’m leaning. Saints cover at home.

$30: Los Angeles Chargers (+2.5) at Dallas Cowboys

It’s desperation time for Dallas. This isn’t the team to face when it’s desperation time. The Chargers are so talented on both sides of the ball. Dallas has a -7 turnover differential on the season, and now faces an aggressive Chargers defense. The Cowboys are not short of talent, but it’s been another disappointing season. Insert Seinfeld “that’s a shame” gif here. Dak will need to save the Cowboys, but will have his hands full facing L.A.’s third ranked pass defense (174.4 ypg allowed). Give me the Chargers and the points on the road.

$20: James Madison Dukes at Oregon Ducks (-20.5)

This spread feels monumentally large, but here I am. When you check the statistical categories, these teams rank similarly across the board. It comes down to which team is more battle tested. James Madison has faced teams like Liberty, Georgia Southern, Louisiana, Marshall, and Coastal Carolina. Furthermore, how will the Dukes play in the spotlight with their head coach that is moving onto UCLA next season? That remains to be seen. It will be interesting to see how James Madison and Tulane perform against Big Ten and SEC foes. I’m banking on Oregon’s talent to pull away in the second half.Oregon covers at home.

Somebody call Ross Geller, because I decided to “pivot”.

$10: Miami Hurricanes (+3.5) at Texas A&M Aggies

All week, I had the Aggies jotted down. Clearly in pencil. Statistically, these two teams rank similarly across the board. The one stat that was different was specific to pass defense. In the end, it changed my mind. This is not tied to yards allowed, as Miami ranks 29th and Texas A&M is 21st. Again, close, like all key categories. Interceptions and TD’s allowed is what stuck out to me. The Aggies have just 3 INT’s in 12 games (with 16 TD allowed through the air). The Hurricanes have 12 INT’s (with 11 TD allowed). Enter Carson Beck, who has been in the spotlight previously (at Georgia). Take away an ugly performance against Louisville and Beck has 25 passing TD’s and 6 INT. Give me Miami and the points on the road.

 

On the Outside Looking In (Others I Considered):

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (+3) – Carolina has played well at home
  • Alabama Crimson Tide (+2.5) at Oklahoma Sooners – Had Bama but didn’t get picks out on time
  • Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans (+3.5) – This is tempting with Mahomes out
  • Tulane Green Wave (+17.5) at Ole Miss Rebels – How will Rebels offense fare without Tu-Lane (err, Lane)?
  • San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) at Indianapolis Colts – What will Rivers bring this week?
  • New England Patriots (+3) at Baltimore Ravens – Believe in Maye, but B’More needs this one
  • Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at New York Giants – Vikes have scored 6 points combined last two weeks

 

Week 16 Football Picks: SportsChump

$50 on Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Total Points Scored Over 24)

I’m going back to the well with my tried and true. The Buccaneers offense cannot be stopped. It’s been a rough stretch for Tampa faithful as they inexplicably lost to the Saints and Falcons in back-to-back weeks. The combination of New Orleans voodoo weather and Kirk Cousins continuing to own the Bucs left a lot of Bay Area fans frustrated, present company included. They can still score though. Wagers on Bucs total points and the over both hit last game, which is why I’m surprised that, with all the weapons back at Baker’s disposal, these totals remain low. The Bucs total points scored (24) and the over/under (45.5) are among the lower to mid-range numbers on Sunday’s board.

The Buccaneers’ defense is as porous as Swiss cheese after the mice got to it and as reliable as DirecTV reception during a rainstorm. Players could be seen last weekend leaving the field and pointing fingers. So, do they respond and shut down the Panthers or is that even possible with the talent they have on the field? Either way, one thing is for certain. They will, and must, put up points if they want any chance at keeping their playoff hopes alive. The Panthers are not horrible defensively but they’re far from the Houston Texans. Baker returns to Carolina where he has struggled as a Buccaneer but gives the Bucs a chance.Bucs total points over 24.

$40 on Los Angeles Chargers/Dallas Cowboys (Over 49 ½)

Since we’re looking back on this season and going to the well with numbers that have done us right, let’s go high again. The Dallas Cowboys, despite being on the verge of missing the playoffs, have been one of the more talented offensive teams on the docket. They lead the league in yards per game and are in the top four in points scored. Despite picking up their defense lately, they’re still the second worst team in the league when it comes to points allowed. This week, they face one-handed gun slinger Justin Herbert and his Chargers who, at 10-4, are likely in the playoffs but have positioning to play for. This has all the makings of a shoot out with Dallas fighting for the playoff lives and the Chargers still kicking the tires on Herbert’s broken hand. The over/under here is 49.5 and while the Chargers are reminding us that they can still play defense, the Cowboys offense will pull out all the stops. Chargers/Cowboys over 49 ½.

$30 on Cincinnati Bengals (Total Points Scored Over 27)

You can’t spell dysfunction without the Dolphins and the Bengals. Seriously, watching this game is like going to a couple’s house for dinner and hearing them argue the entire time to the point where you’re uncomfortable being there.On one hand, you have the latest rumors that Joe Burrow might not finish his career in Cincinnati. His recent “You think about a lot of things” quote has Bengals fans quaking in their boots for even hinting he might play in another uniform.And who could blame him? The Bengals are routinely one of the most poorly put together franchises and have yet to assemble an offensive line to keep him upright. Furthermore, their coaching has been woeful.

Burrow is too much of a competitor to not try. In his first two games back against the Ravens and the Bills, he looked like the quarterback we really missed watching. Six touchdowns in two games. Then came the Ravens again, a game in which the Bengals were shut out at home with Burrow posting a 21.4 QBR. I’m not sure Burrow’s ever posted that low a number and I highly doubt he will again. Whether he’s showing off his chops for another team, perhaps the Dolphins, or wanting to get back in Cincinnati’s good graces, Burrow is too competitive to not show off his arm strength. Despite Tee Higgins’ absence and their inept coaching staff, this Bengals’ offense is too talented.Their over/under points scored is 27. If Cincy’s defense shows up even remotely against Quinn Ewers, the Bengals should have plenty of opportunity to score the football. I can’t see Burrow leaving but as he hinted in his presser, stranger things have happened. If that’s the case, look for Bengals fans to enjoy Burrow one last time as he lights up the Dolphins with the Bengals scoring over 27.

$20 on San Francisco 49ers/Indianapolis Colts (Under 46 ½)

Since we’ve been high-happy with our first three picks, it’s time to admit that not every NFL team will score points this weekend. Last Sunday, the talk of the town was how Philip Rivers came out of retirement and, at 45 years old, started a game for the Indianapolis Colts. It was astonishing that he was able to finish the game, never mind almost win it. The Colts’ defense last week needed to be impressive, and it was. They held a potentially fiery Seahawks offense to only 18 points. That game went under because it had to if the Colts wanted any chance to win.It’s not like Rivers is throwing the ball around the yard like he used to ten years ago.

This Monday, the Colts return home in another game they must win if they want to still make the playoffs. A heavy dose of Jonathan Taylor to control time of possession will once again be in their game plan, as will a fired-up defense who will once again be asked to bear the responsibility of keeping them in the game. The Niners only score about 21 points per game. If this turns into a hand the ball to McCaffrey/hand the ball to Taylor kind of game, we’ll see the clock tick as these backs pound out yardage three, four or five yards at a time. I see two teams playing a physical game with playoffs on the line and points hard to come by.Niners/Colts under 46 ½.

$10 on Philadelphia Eagles/Washington Commanders (Under 44 ½)

Speaking of low numbers, let’s go under the limbo bar one more time.On a brisk Maryland Saturday evening, the Commanders will host the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles are plodding offensively and stingy defensively. They effectively control clock and will want to do just enough to win this ball game and lock up the NFC East. The Commanders may want to play spoilers but I’m not sure they have enough firepower. They snapped their 8-game losing streak to the Giants last week, but the Eagles are an altogether different animal. The Commanders only averaged 16 points per game during that losing streak. I imagine they’ll want to keep things close against Philly but if they can’t get the ball back and keep the Eagles from doing what they do, this could be a boring game to watch.44 ½ is a low number. This one goes lower than that.Eagles/Commanders under.

 

Week 16 Football Picks: The Barber

It’s that time of year again!  The season of lights.  Celebration in many different cultures and religions.  The fat man breaking and entering into houses all over the world to leave gifts.  And The Barber provided his annual picks and made his hosts look like professional ESPN commentators compared to his meager knowledge.  But here goes anyway.

$50 – Denver (-3) beats Jacksonville

I was driving down my street in suburban Chicago the other day when I had to stop and stare.  You see, flags are a big thing out here.  Fly your flag for your team throughout football season.  Bears flags abound, but also many colleges as well.  And this year the Indiana flags came out in full force throughout the season.  Penn State flags got furled up and put away early.  But the one flag that made me stop the car and just stare…was a Jacksonville Jaguars flag.  That’s right – Jaguar fever – feel it!  And it was at a house that had never flown a Jacksonville flag (would they really have had a reason too).  Either they are completely hardcore fans that have had that flag forever or one of their kids really likes the uniforms.  Either way…that tells me the Jacksonville fever is out of control.  And the Denver Broncos will help cool them off.   Jacksonville walks into Denver and Denver sends them home gasping for air.  This won’t be a field goal at the buzzer game – Denver solidly handles Jacksonville and covers.

$40 – Texas A&M (-3.5) crushes Miami (FL)

This pick might be because I hate the U.  Or maybe it is because Miami crapped the bed and couldn’t get into its own conference title game and entered the CFP through the backdoor (send Christmas gifts to Duke!).  Oh wait…A&M didn’t get into their championship game either?  Either way, A&M only lost one game on the road at Texas.  The 12th man will show up strong to this one and Miami drowns in the noise.

$30 – Philadelphia (-6.5) covers at Washington

Hmmm…Philly is locked in a battle for the division.  Washington is locked in a battle for what to call their next stadium.  Sounds like a real battle to me.  But this is the National Football League and anything can happen…which is WHY THEY PLAY THE GAMES!  Except in this case, the only thing that happens is that Philly goes off and wins by double digits.

$20 – Tulane (+17.5) covers at Ole Miss

The Green Wave walks into Oxford and says Lane who?  Oh wait…Lane didn’t stick around to coach the game.  Is this the right place for my diatribe about the stupidity of hiring a college football coach and acting surprised when they do well and leave for a bigger and better school?  No?  Well you are going to get it anyway.  How obtuse is the fanbase to think that once a coach hits it big, they won’t jump to the next shiny program full of fame and fortune?  The list of college football programs that are the “forever” jobs (until you’re fired for going 8-4) is pretty small.  So if you are an Ole Miss fan of course you are thinking why would a coach ever leave us?  You know Mississippi – that bastion of football that has won multiple national championships and has all kinds of money to throw at recruits…oh wait – got my states confused – that’s Alabama.
But seriously – it’s Oxford, Mississippi and a school with a 0.558 all time record and three national championships clustered around the end of the Eisenhower and beginning of the Kennedy administrations.  This is not a destination school!  It is a stop on the way to bigger and better things!  And this is Lane Kiffin!  His longest stint ever at one place was at Ole Miss – and it was 5 seasons!  Think about that – his history is 2 years in Oakland, 1 year at Tennessee, four years at USC, 3 years at Florida Atlantic (aka purgatory), and now 5 years at Ole Miss.  Did you really think it was his forever home?  But I digress.  The Green Wave walks into Oxford and says that they want to show they belong, but they don’t.  What happens is they cover the line.  But they still lose by 17.

$10 – Green Bay (+1.5) covers at Chicago

Why only $10?  Because this Bears team is harder to read than the Canterbury Tales.  Are they good, are they bad, or does Green Bay just “own them?”  Who knows.  But I know one thing for sure – I wouldn’t wager a lot of money on them.  The pick is the Pack on the road at frozen Soldier Field.  Or is it Arlington Heights field?  Or maybe Northwest Indiana Field?  Oh wait…that’s a different betting line for their next home five years from now.  The drama!

Last Week’s Recap

  • $50: New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars (-13) – CORRECT
  • $40: Las Vegas Raiders at Philadelphia Eagles (-11.5) – CORRECT
  • $30: Los Angeles Chargers (+6) at Kansas City Chiefs – CORRECT
  • $20: LA Bowl: Boise State Broncos (+10.5) vs Washington Huskies – INCORRECT
  • $10: Detroit Lions (+6) at Los Angeles Rams – INCORRECT

Season Stats for Kevin Paul at TWHS (Top Five Only)

  • NFL: 20-18-4 ($90)
  • CFB: 15-18 (-$160)
  • Overall: 35-36-4 (-$70)

Season Stats for Kevin Paul at TWHS (By Confidence)

$50: 8-7

$40: 7-8

$30: 5-10

$20: 8-5-2

$10: 7-6-2

Week-by-Week for Kevin Paul and The Wife Hates Sports (Top Five Only)

  • Week 01: NFL: 2-2 ($50) | CFB 1-0 ($20) | Week: 3-2 ($70) | Overall: 3-2 ($70)
  • Week 02: NFL: 2-1 ($40) | CFB 0-2 (-$50) | Week: 2-3 (-$10) | Overall: 5-5 ($60)
  • Week 03: NFL: 1-2 (-$40) | CFB 1-1 (-$10) | Week: 2-3 (-$50) | Overall: 7-8 ($10)
  • Week 04: NFL: 1-1 (-$30) | CFB 2-1 ($0) | Week: 3-2 (-$30) | Overall: 10-10 (-$20)
  • Week 05: NFL: 0-2 (-$70) | CFB 1-2 ($20) | Week: 1-4 (-$50) | Overall: 11-14 (-$70)
  • Week 06: NFL: 1-2 (-$40) | CFB 2-0 ($30) | Week: 3-2 (-$10) | Overall: 14-16 (-$80)
  • Week 07: NFL: 3-0 ($120) | CFB 1-1 (-$10) | Week: 4-1 ($110) | Overall: 18-17 ($30)
  • Week 08: NFL: 1-0 ($50) | CFB 0-4 (-$100) | Week: 1-4 (-$50) | Overall: 19-21 (-$20)
  • Week 09: NFL: 1-3 (-$100) | CFB 1-0 ($10) | Week: 2-3 (-$90) | Overall: 21-24 (-$110)
  • Week 10: NFL: 2-0-1 ($50) | CFB 0-2 (-$80) | Week: 2-2-1 (-$30) | Overall: 23-26-1 (-$140)
  • Week 11: NFL: 1-1-1 ($10) | CFB 2-0 ($70) | Week: 3-1-1 ($80) | Overall: 26-27-2 (-$60)
  • Week 12: NFL: 1-2 (-$70) | CFB 2-0 ($40) | Week: 3-2 (-$30) | Overall: 29-29-2 (-$90)
  • Week 13: NFL: 0-1 (-$40) | CFB 2-2 (-$10) | Week: 2-3 (-$50) | Overall: 31-32-2 (-$140)
  • Week 14: NFL: 1-0-2 ($50) | CFB 0-2 (-$70) | Week: 1-2-2 (-$20) | Overall: 32-34-4 (-$160)
  • Week 15: NFL: 3-1 ($110) | CFB 0-1 (-$20) | Week: 3-2 ($90) | Overall: 35-36-4 (-$70)

 

Chime in with your top picks for the week.Thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!

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