Oh, the world of football. The gift that keeps on giving. Have we ever had so many wild football headlines jam-packed into one week? From Sherrone Moore to Philip Rivers, the headlines are aplenty. These stories also make it interesting when navigating lines and picking spreads. Will Rivers start? If he does, how will he play? Will candidates for the Michigan job (rumors or not) impact the performance of teams in upcoming bowl or playoff games? Are the Chiefs going to be eliminated from playoff contention or will they bounce back? As I navigate through a fairly mediocre season of prognostication, it’s time to move forward with our Week 15 Football Picks and Top Bets.

But before I do… seriously… the Philip Rivers story! Is it just me, or does anyone else hope that he sticks around long enough to get this into a 30 for 30 documentary? Imagine the types of quotes that would come out of that. It makes me think of that Nate Bargatze bit…

As a man in his 40’s, I can certainly relate.

Contest Reminder

This is a season long contest with potential prizes going out to our winners, so if you want to join in on the fun, drop a comment here or over at the land of the SportsChump.  We take our top five games of the week against the spread. If you beat us and go undefeated, that leads to fun prizes and heaps of praise on our websites.

With that said, here are our TOP FIVE Best Bets for the week, including my Week 15 Football Picks and Top Bets. The list is ranked in order of confidence, from 50 “dollars” down to $10.

Week 15 Football Picks and Top Bets – The 40’s Edition

KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports

$50: New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars (-13)

Jacksonville HC Liam Coen was quoted last week simply stating that “I don’t know if we’ll ever really get [respect]”. Well, I’m giving it to the Jags this week. Although, I must admit that my initial reaction was more questioning the last time Jacksonville was favored by nearly two TD’s in a game. Jacksonville – winners of four straight – has the NFL’s top run defense, allowing just 82.9 ypg on the ground. That puts a lot of pressure on New York’s third-string QB Brady Cook, who gets the start following Tyrod Taylor’s groin injury. Defensively, the Jets have just TWO takeaways on the season. That’s no typo. Not surprisingly, the Jets are an NFL worst -15 in turnover differential. This could get ugly fast. Jaguars cover at home.

$40: Las Vegas Raiders at Philadelphia Eagles (-11.5)

Expectations are high in Philly. The fan base is typically grouchy. That fact is well documented. Just ask both Santa Claus and J.D. Drew. Therefore, it’s no surprise that there’s a lot of unrest considering how the Eagles have played as of late. But if you look back to the beginning of November, the Eagles have had to face the Packers, Lions, Cowboys, Bears, and Chargers. Perhaps a home game against the hapless Raiders will be just what the doctor ordered. If not, Philly, don’t throw any batteries at said doctor. Kenny Pickett steps in to start for the Raiders. He takes over a Vegas offense that ranks 31st in the NFL (only the Titans have fewer yards per game). Expect Philly’s weapons to take over. Eagles cover at home.

$30: Los Angeles Chargers (+6) at Kansas City Chiefs

It’s desperation time for Kansas City. The division title is no longer an option. A playoff berth is becoming more unlikely by the day. It’s uncharted territory for K.C. under Andy Reid. As a result, expect the Chiefs to play every game like it’s do or die. Because it is. So, why not take the Chiefs? First off, the Chargers rank third in total defense (275.3 ypg allowed). This is a talented group that is really hard to pass on. Next, let’s look at the rivalry’s history. L.A. took the first game this year, breaking a six-game win streak by the Chiefs. Overall, dating back to 2021, eight of the last nine games in this rivalry have been decided by a touchdown or less. Recent history says it’ll be close. Give me the Chargers and the points on the road.

$20: LA Bowl: Boise State Broncos (+10.5) vs Washington Huskies

Bowl games often come down to injuries, transfers, and opt-outs. The biggest opt-out is on the Boise State side, where the Broncos will be without its starting LT. That takes me to Washington’s pass rush first, where the Huskies have just 21 sacks (T-94th in CFB). Boise State QB Maddux Madsen returned from injury last week and played well against UNLV (289 passing yards, 3 TD). Washington is more battle tested, facing a Big Ten schedule. However, the Broncos – while not nearly as good as last year’s playoff team – are a formidable opponent. For example, Boise State’s pass defense ranks 12th in CFB (171.5 ypg) and has more INT’s (14) than TD’s allowed (13). Give me Boise State and the points at the LA Bowl.

$10: Detroit Lions (+6) at Los Angeles Rams

This is the game of the week. At least, on paper it is. The Lions and Rams are both top five offenses in yards per game (Detroit is 3rd, L.A. is 4th). Both teams rank high in turnover differential (Rams +10, Lions +8). Both teams have also had monstrous performances and big-time duds this season. The Lions arguably need this game more, considering the current landscape of the playoff picture. Although, the Rams have the NFC’s top seed (and a bye) within reach. Expect a shootout and the game to come down to which superstar makes more plays. That plus how the Lions perform on fourth down. Give me the Lions and the points on the road.

 

On the Outside Looking In (Others I Considered):

  • Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (+1.5) – How will future Dad Josh Allen fare in New England?
  • Minnesota Vikings (+5.5) at Dallas Cowboys – What will Justin Jefferson do for Fantasy owners?
  • Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks (-13.5) – Anyone else not know what to think of Philip Rivers?
  • Carolina Panthers (-2.5) at New Orleans Saints – Saints took down Bucs last week, beat CAR last month

 

Week 15 Football Picks: SportsChump

$50 on Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4)

We’re kicking off this week early to wager on my beloved Buccaneers.  Their fifth straight NFC South crown was once thought a foregone conclusion.  Then the Voodoo Saints brought a monsoon into Tampa Bay and upset the home team on a dreary Sunday afternoon.  Seriously, did you watch that game?  I thought Tampa, both the town and the team, were going to float off into the Gulf of Whatever It’s Called This Week.  It rained from the moment I woke up to the time we put it to bed.  The sloppiness showed on the field.  The Bucs looked discombobulated and let Tyler Shough look like the more brazen quarterback.  That won’t happen again on Thursday night.  The Bucs realize what is at stake.

With the Panthers traveling to New Orleans, fully aware of the upset-minded Saints, the Bucs must win against Atlanta on Thursday night if they want to keep a healthy distance.  Fortunately, the Falcons are an ideal get-right spot.  While a divisional rival, Kirk Cousins will not be able to pull off the magic Shough did, as he’s twice his age and considerably less mobile.  Look for Coach Bowles to light a fire under his defense and look for Baker to make sure his offense doesn’t look as clunky as it did last Sunday.  I like Baker to feed Egbuka (+150 for a touchdown) after he dropped a wide-open pass in the end zone last week.  The potential return of Mike Evans, who has allegedly been practicing with the team again, should open things up.  Tristan Wirfs is also slated to return, which makes a huge difference when it comes to protecting Baker Mayfield.  I’ll be taking every Bucs offensive stat over in this game, including…

$40 on Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Over 25 points scored)

The Bucs offense has been woefully sluggish lately.  Cardinals and Saints excluded, the Bucs just ran through the meat of their schedule.  Mix in games against the Pats, Bills and Rams and you have four losses in five games.  The Falcons home game in prime time couldn’t come at a better time.  The Bucs offense hasn’t scored over 20 points in its last three games.  Chalk that up to Bucky Irving missing time.  We’ll see plenty of Irving, setting up the pass against a Falcons team that has allowed 27 points or more in four of its last five games.  The Bucs offense will leave no doubt and give their defense some breathing room.  Bucs over 25 points scored.

$30 on Buffalo Bills (-1) at New England Patriots

The Bills began this season 4-0 and then, they went into New England.  That loss was a turning point for both teams.  The Pats, with their relatively easy schedule, have not lost since.  They’ve won ten straight games!  The Bills, after that wake-up call, have gone a very un-Bill-like 5-3.  That won’t happen again.  The Bills want nothing more than to end the Patriots ten-game win streak.  They have undoubtedly had this game earmarked on their calendar since the AFC East was all but taken from them. 

Kudos to the job Mike Vrabel has done.  He’s all but sewn up coach of the year award with this young team.  But Sunday serves as a friendly reminder that the Bills are the more experienced and playoff-ready team.  Bills minus one on the road.  (Side note: If you agree with this assessment, and expect Josh Allen to go off, now is a fine time to find value on the following wagers: Allen MVP +1100, Bills +375 AFC Champions, Bills +850 Super Bowl Champions)

$20 on Detroit Lions (+5 ½) at Los Angeles Rams

Speaking of NFL MVP’s, Matthew Stafford is the current leader in the clubhouse.  He’s thrown for 35 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions.  It was only a few months ago that we wondered whether he’d even play this season.  Taking snaps for the other team is the guy they traded away to get Stafford.  Jared Goff returns home with his 8-5 Lions desperately fighting for a playoff spot.  Many have closed the window on this Goff-led Lions run, which hasn’t amounted to much, at least not in the post-season. 

Meanwhile, we’ve already crowned both the Rams and their quarterback.  In the words of Lee Corso, not so fast, my friends.   Even though the Rams are the one-seed, and they sure would love to have it for that intimidating Los Angeles home field advantage (surely, I jest), the Lions need this game a whole lot more, for they may be out if they don’t win it.  They have three more tough games against Pittsburgh, Minnesota and Chicago and desperately need to start racking up wins.  Lions will leave it all out on the field and are getting a nice number, so I’ll take the points and the more desperate team.  Lions plus the five and a half.

$10 on Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

Two weeks ago, after the Steelers got destroyed by the Buffalo Bills in Pittsburgh, Steelers fans were calling for Mike Tomlin’s head.  This is nothing new.  They’ve been doing that for years.  The man that Tomlin is, he straight up agreed with the fans and respected their frustration.  That following week, the Steelers punched the Ravens in the mouth and all but assured an AFC North crown for Steel Town.  That’s what Mike Tomlin does.  At 7-6, however, their work is not done.  Fortunately for them, they get a nice winnable home game on a Monday night against a team that doesn’t do well in the cold. 

Pittsburgh will have watched the Sunday action, which might include a Bengals win over Baltimore, and realize they have some breathing room.  A win over Miami, all but knocking the Dolphins out of the post-season, would give them a giant leg up on the division.  The Steelers will do what they do, plod the ball down the field with the occasional big play, with their defense stepping up just enough to make Tua feel uncomfortable and win this game.  The line has already moved off the three, so I hope you got it early.  If not, tease it down as it’s hard to imagine this Dolphins team, which might look a lot different next year, winning one in the cold.  Steelers cover the field goal.

 

Last Week’s Recap

  • $50: Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) at Atlanta Falcons – CORRECT
  • $40: Indiana Hoosiers vs Ohio State Buckeyes (-3.5) – INCORRECT
  • $30: Duke Blue Devils vs Virginia Cavaliers (-2.5) – INCORRECT
  • $20: Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (-5) – PUSH
  • $10: Chicago Bears (+7) at Green Bay Packers – PUSH

Season Stats for Kevin Paul at TWHS (Top Five Only)

  • NFL: 17-17-4 (-$20)
  • CFB: 15-17 (-$140)
  • Overall: 32-34-4 (-$160)

Season Stats for Kevin Paul at TWHS (By Confidence)

  • $50: 7-7
  • $40: 6-8
  • $30: 4-10
  • $20: 8-4-2
  • $10: 7-5-2

Week-by-Week for Kevin Paul and The Wife Hates Sports (Top Five Only)

  • Week 01: NFL: 2-2 ($50) | CFB 1-0 ($20) | Week: 3-2 ($70) | Overall: 3-2 ($70)
  • Week 02: NFL: 2-1 ($40) | CFB 0-2 (-$50) | Week: 2-3 (-$10) | Overall: 5-5 ($60)
  • Week 03: NFL: 1-2 (-$40) | CFB 1-1 (-$10) | Week: 2-3 (-$50) | Overall: 7-8 ($10)
  • Week 04: NFL: 1-1 (-$30) | CFB 2-1 ($0) | Week: 3-2 (-$30) | Overall: 10-10 (-$20)
  • Week 05: NFL: 0-2 (-$70) | CFB 1-2 ($20) | Week: 1-4 (-$50) | Overall: 11-14 (-$70)
  • Week 06: NFL: 1-2 (-$40) | CFB 2-0 ($30) | Week: 3-2 (-$10) | Overall: 14-16 (-$80)
  • Week 07: NFL: 3-0 ($120) | CFB 1-1 (-$10) | Week: 4-1 ($110) | Overall: 18-17 ($30)
  • Week 08: NFL: 1-0 ($50) | CFB 0-4 (-$100) | Week: 1-4 (-$50) | Overall: 19-21 (-$20)
  • Week 09: NFL: 1-3 (-$100) | CFB 1-0 ($10) | Week: 2-3 (-$90) | Overall: 21-24 (-$110)
  • Week 10: NFL: 2-0-1 ($50) | CFB 0-2 (-$80) | Week: 2-2-1 (-$30) | Overall: 23-26-1 (-$140)
  • Week 11: NFL: 1-1-1 ($10) | CFB 2-0 ($70) | Week: 3-1-1 ($80) | Overall: 26-27-2 (-$60)
  • Week 12: NFL: 1-2 (-$70) | CFB 2-0 ($40) | Week: 3-2 (-$30) | Overall: 29-29-2 (-$90)
  • Week 13: NFL: 0-1 (-$40) | CFB 2-2 (-$10) | Week: 2-3 (-$50) | Overall: 31-32-2 (-$140)
  • Week 14: NFL: 1-0-2 ($50) | CFB 0-2 (-$70) | Week: 1-2-2 (-$20) | Overall: 32-34-4 (-$160)

 

Chime in with your top picks for the week.  Thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!

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