Let’s rock and roll with our Week 16 NFL Top Picks and CFB bets against the spread. This will be a new adventure considering NFL teams pushing for playoff spots and the first ever expanded College Football Playoff kicking off this weekend. Of course, because I like to live on the edge, there had to be participation in both events.

Again, if any of you have cashed in on this year’s picks, let me know in the comments. Better yet, click on any of the Fanatics related ads and buy yourself some team gear of your choice. We get a piece of that pie if you use the TWHS affiliate links and ads. Wink, wink… nudge, nudge.

Pick Your Knows

Confident with your own picks? Think you know who will cover? Go ahead, “pick your knows”.

This is a season long contest with potential prizes going out to our winners, so if you want to join in on the fun, drop a comment here at The Wife Hates Sports… or over at the land of the SportsChump.  We take our top five games of the week against the spread. If you beat us and go undefeated, that leads to fun prizes and heaps of praise on our websites.

Here are our TOP FIVE Best Bets for the week, including my Week 16 NFL Top Picks and College Football Best Bets. The list is ranked in order of confidence, from 50 “dollars” down to $10.

Week 16 NFL Top Picks and CFB Bets – Sweet Sixteen Edition

KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports

$50: Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5)

Why continue to go with these divisional rivalry games in the top slot? Well, the Browns are decimated by injuries and inefficiency, especially on offense. Nick Chubb (poor, poor Nick Chubb) has a broken foot and he’s back on IR. Dorian Thompson-Robinson will start this week. His career numbers are not pretty. Well, they can’t be that bad, you say? How about 51.4% completion percentage, for starters. One passing TD and 7 INT in his career. See, it’s ugly. This is great opportunity, but I don’t see him and the Browns keeping up with Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati offense.  On top of all that, Cleveland has lost three of four in the rivalry, and has to face Cincinnati on the road. Bengals cover at home.

$40: Detroit Lions (-6.5) at Chicago Bears

The injuries are piling up for the Lions. The stretch of names is nearing the length of Santa’s nice list. But, I think we know by now that we shouldn’t count Dan Campbell out. We have come to expect the outlandish decisions. The onside kick decision against Buffalo was not the right one, and he even admitted that. Detroit will miss its bruiser in David Montgomery, but there is still plenty of talent anchoring this offense. There’s no doubt in my mind that Campbell has his team fired up and downright pissed off after last week’s loss. If you don’t believe me, go watch some of his post game speeches. I don’t even need to add any stats here. This is just going to be Detroit all day. Lions cover on the road.

$30: Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at Washington Commanders

The Commanders are knocking on the door of the playoffs. While talented, I have concerns with this team. Washington is 0-4 against opponents with a winning record. Next, let’s look at last week’s game against the Saints. The Commanders jumped out to a quick 14-0 lead. There were many opportunities to blow the game wide open. That didn’t happen. New Orleans – a team battling many injuries – went to Spencer Rattler, who nearly led a courageous comeback. The clock snafu at the end was B.S. to say the least, especially since it cost me my $50 game last week. But the blown lead is the bigger concern. Philadelphia is a much stronger (and deeper) team. Eagles cover on the road.

$20: SMU Mustangs (+8.5) at Penn State Nittany Lions

We all know James Franklin’s record in big games and top teams. It’s U-G-L-Y, he ain’t got no alibi. Also, this feels like a monstrous curse or massive pile of pressure for Penn State. Every critic is stating that the Nittany Lions have the easiest path to the semifinal. Listen, SMU is a talented team. Its defense had 40 sacks this season (tied for 5th most). SMU’s offense scored 56 TD’s. Then, there’s that home field advantage. The Whiteout atmosphere won’t be the same for a Noon game that also doesn’t include most of the students. It’s not even a sellout – something that never happens. PSU has the talent advantage, but I expect a dogfight. Give me SMU and the points on the road.

$10: Tennessee Volunteers (+7.5) at Ohio State Buckeyes

This is an opportunity for the SEC. So many complaints about a conference beating itself up all year. The Vols get an OSU fan base that is putting a ton of pressure on Ryan Day to deliver. The over/under is 46 points, the lowest of the four opening round playoff games. That’s likely due to each team’s defensive ranking, among other things. Ten teams allowed fewer than 300 yards per game this season. These two schools are included in that list (Ohio State – 1st, 241.1 | Tennessee – 4th, 278.3). Both pass defenses have more INT’s than TD’s allowed. Both rank in the top ten in rush defense. This should be quite a battle and a fun watch. I’m banking on a one score game. Give me Tennessee and the points on the road.

On the Outside Looking In (Other Games I Considered):

  • Houston Texans (+3.5) at Kansas City Chiefs – Now, it appears Mahomes might play
  • New York Giants (+9) at Atlanta Falcons – Penix in charge now, is that a good thing?
  • New Orleans Saints (+14) at Green Bay Packers – Spencer Rattler played well in 2nd half last week
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) at Dallas Cowboys – Cowboys have actually won three of four
  • Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Seattle Seahawks – Rain is expected in Seattle
  • Indiana Hoosiers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-6.5) – How good are these teams really?
  • Clemson Tigers (+12) at Texas Longhorns – Dabo has a ton of playoff experience

Week 16 NFL Top Picks and More: SportsChump

$50 on Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-6)

Miraculously, as poorly as they’ve played this season, the Cincinnati Bengals have not yet been eliminated from playoff contention.  It’s in the mail, though, that’s for sure.  I’m not entirely convinced there’s a scenario in which they still make it, but I suppose it’s still mathematically possible since ESPN hasn’t placed one of those italicized e’s next to their name in the standings.  There are a few AFC teams ahead of them that have yet to play one another but regardless of what happens, Cincy will have to win out and hope for a Christmas miracle to still be playing in January.  For future reference, they may want to not start their season 0-3.  This week, they play the hapless Browns who have finally had enough of Jameis Winston.  All Winston did in his limited time behind center was compete for the league lead in interceptions. 

Now they turn to Dorian Thompson-Robinson who we’ve seen before, and who isn’t downright horrid, but is a far cry from Joe Burrow.  Here’s a stat for you.  Did you know there are only four teams in the league that have scored more points than the 6-8 Bengals?  That’s how bad their defense is.  Fortunately for them, the Cleveland Browns’ offense is equally as inept.  There are only two teams in the league who have scored fewer points than them.  That’s the only reasoning I need to take the Bengals and lay the points.  The line opened at six but quickly moved up to as high as eight in some circles.  Since I need all the help I can get, I’ll take that early line of six and bet the house.  Cincy minus.

$40 on New York Giants (+9) at Atlanta Falcons

I listened to two different radio shows the other day raving about Michael Penix, Jr.  Last off-season, the clusterfuck that is the Atlanta Falcons organization paid top dollar for a free agent veteran quarterback, Kirk Cousins.  They also drafted a quarterback in the first round, making them the first team in NFL history to double dip like that at the position.  Perhaps Arthur Blank thought he received an invite to my fantasy league in which we start two quarterbacks.  Turns out it was the right move as Jameis Cousins has been benched after throwing 1 touchdown and 9 interceptions in his last five games.  I take that back.  Even Jameis mixes in a few TD passes to go with his flair for the pick-six.  The Falcons will now kick the tires on Penix and apparently Las Vegas likes his chances.  The Falcons are an overwhelming 9-point favorite against the lowly Giants. 

To be fair, the Giants are on a nine-game losing streak and have turned back to Drew Lock as starter, making him the fourth different quarterback the G-Men have started this season.  It’s a disaster of MetLife-ian proportions up there but I don’t care how bad the Giants are.  I’m not laying nine points with a rookie quarterback who has yet to throw a pass against an NFL defense, even one as Swiss cheesy as New York’s.  Despite all their woes, the Giants pass defense is surprisingly top ten.  I can’t imagine Raheem Morris leaving Penix out to dry, but the kid will have to pass the ball eventually and when he does, don’t be surprised if the men in blue are lurking.  Both these teams are horrible.  The Falcons need this win but they’re circling the drain and all we can see are feathers.  After losing four straight games, they struggled to beat the 2-10 Raiders last week.  I’m simply not taking a rookie quarterback on a bad team and laying nine against anyone.  G-Men plus the nine.

$30 on Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3 ½)

What we have here is a battle between two of the worst quarterbacks in the league.  Don’t believe me?  Will Levis’ QBR is worse than Jameis Winston’s and Anthony Richardson’s is worse than Spencer Rattler’s.  Anthony Richardson’s completion percentage is worse than my accuracy in picking games this season.  While Levis and Richardson are under their rookie contracts (both were drafted in 2023), their respective franchises are going to have to look long and hard this offseason to determine whether they’ll be starting Week One in 2025.  In other words, both quarterbacks will have to work on their games if they still want gainful employment.  And both these coaches might have to dumb down these offenses to help these guys out. 

But that’s next year.  Let’s talk Sunday.  The Colts are still alive in this thing, barely, and while the Titans would like nothing more than to ensure Indy joins them in their ring of elimination misery, I’m not sure they have the manpower to do so. They’ve dropped eight of their last ten.  The only reason this line is 3 ½ is because nobody has any faith in the Colts offense.  Look for Shane Steichen to simplify his offense with a heavy dose of Jonathan Taylor and some rushing, but not passing, from Anthony Richardson.  If they can just keep Richardson’s pass attempts to 25 and under, that will give him fewer opportunities to give the game away.  Colts minus the 3 ½ because yes, the Titans are that bad.

$20 on Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-5)

Are we finally starting to see a chink in the Steelers’ armor?  I was way off a few weeks ago when I suggested the Ravens would win in Pittsburgh.  They never do.  This week, both Baltimore and I will exact our revenge.  With the way Coach Tomlin has so rudely handled Lamar Jackson over the years, retribution is long overdue.  The Ravens manhandled the Giants last week but who doesn’t.  Most surprising about that game is that Derrick Henry didn’t score a touchdown.  He only carried the ball 14 times. 

In fact, after scoring a touchdown in ten of his first eleven games, Henry has yet to score in his last three.  Perhaps they’re saving him for a final push here… and here comes that push.  With three games left on the season, the Ravens, with a win, have a chance to tie Pittsburgh for the division lead at 10-5.  The trick is, the Ravens still must play Houston and Cleveland while the Steelers still have Kansas City and Cincinnati.  If you like Baltimore to sneak up and win that division, you can still get it at +140.  Against my better judgment, I put money on that future.  I also have money on the Ravens minus five this weekend.  I mean, they have to beat Tomlin eventually, don’t they?

$10 on Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) at Dallas Cowboys

I owe my boys an apology.  Despite already beating Detroit, Philly and Washington this season, I didn’t give the Buccaneers a chance in hell of going into Los Angeles last week and beating the Chargers.  They proved me wrong.  And how!  The Bucs lit up the Chargers last week to the tune of 40 points. On paper, they were the best defense in the league.  That was until Mike Evans got a hold of them.  This week, the Bucs continue their quest for a fourth straight NFC South crown and that road goes through Dallas.  At 6-8, Dallas surprisingly isn’t eliminated yet, so I don’t expect them to roll over, but their running game is atrocious and the Bucs defense, albeit against weaker opponents, is only allowing 15 a game their last four, all wins. 

After dropping five straight, the Cowboys have quietly won three of their last four, but I’m not convinced their defense can consistently stop Tampa’s, nor am I convinced their offense can consistently keep up with Tampa’s.  If Tampa plays in Dallas the way they played in Los Angeles, they will be very difficult to beat.  Dallas has difficulty stopping the run and Tampa’s three-headed monster in the backfield is tough to stop when Baker Mayfield has Mike Evans to keep defenses honest.  Either way, I owe them a confidence pick, so Go Bucs (minus 4)

Last Week’s Recap: The Wife Hates Sports

  • $50: Washington Commanders (-6) at New Orleans Saints – INCORRECT
  • $40: Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) at Tennessee Titans – CORRECT
  • $30: Pittsburgh Steelers (+5.5) at Philadelphia Eagles Bills – INCORRECT
  • $20: Kansas City Chiefs (-4) at Cleveland Browns – CORRECT
  • $10: Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) – CORRECT

Season Stats for Kevin Paul and The Wife Hates Sports (Top Five Only)

  • NFL: 23-16-1 ($120)
  • CFB: 19-15-1 ($300)
  • Overall: 42-31-2 ($420)

Week-by-Week for Kevin Paul and The Wife Hates Sports (Top Five Only)

  • Week 01: NFL: 1-2 ($20) | CFB 1-1 (-$10) | Week: 2-3 ($10) | Overall: 2-3 ($10)
  • Week 02: NFL: 3-0 ($100) | CFB 1-1 (-$10) | Week: 4-1 ($90) | Overall: 6-4 ($100)
  • Week 03: NFL: 1-2 (-$60) | CFB 1-1 ($30) | Week: 2-3 (-$30) | Overall: 8-7 ($70)
  • Week 04: NFL: 0-1 (-$30) | CFB 4-0 ($120) | Week: 4-1 ($90) | Overall: 12-8 ($160)
  • Week 05: NFL: 1-0 ($20) | CFB 2-2 ($50) | Week: 3-2 ($70) | Overall: 15-10 ($230)
  • Week 06: NFL: 2-0-1 ($50) | CFB 2-0 ($90) | Week: 4-0-1 ($140) | Overall: 19-10-1 ($370)
  • Week 07: NFL: 2-0 ($70) | CFB 1-1-1 (-$20) | Week: 3-1-1 ($50) | Overall: 22-11-2 ($420)
  • Week 08: NFL: 2-0 ($70) | CFB 1-2 ($20) | Week: 3-2 ($90) | Overall: 25-13-2 ($510)
  • Week 09: NFL: 2-1 (-$10) | CFB 2-0 ($60) | Week: 4-1 ($50) | Overall: 29-14-2 ($560)
  • Week 10: NFL: 1-1 ($30) | CFB 0-3 (-$80) | Week: 1-4 (-$50) | Overall: 30-18-2 ($510)
  • Week 11: NFL: 0-2 (-$60) | CFB 1-2 ($10) | Week: 1-4 (-$50) | Overall: 31-22-2 ($460)
  • Week 12: NFL: 2-2 ($10) | CFB 0-1 ($40) | Week: 2-3 (-$30) | Overall: 33-25-2 ($430)
  • Week 13: NFL: 1-1 (-$30) | CFB 2-1 ($40) | Week: 3-2 ($10) | Overall: 36-27-2 ($440)
  • Week 14: NFL: 2-2 (-$50) | CFB 1-0 ($40) | Week: 3-2 (-$10) | Overall: 39-29-2 ($430)
  • Week 15: NFL: 3-2 (-$10) | CFB 0-0 ($0) | Week: 3-2 (-$10) | Overall: 42-31-2 ($420)

Chime in with your top picks for the week.  Thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!

——-

If you enjoy The Wife Hates Sports, you can support my work by buying from Fanatics through my site.  It’s of no additional charge to you.  I simply get a cut of any Fanatics sale purchased through links here.  That goes for any Fanatics Experience ad within posts or via the banners on the home page.