As we head into the fourth week of the season, there isn’t a lot of humor sitting on the tip of my tongue. My thoughts are instead with all those impacted by the devastation from Hurricane Helene. We consider ourselves lucky, as just a few hours west of us, there is a lot more damage. Co-workers and friends that live in the Western Carolinas are without power. Some we haven’t heard from. I have already built many fond memories visiting the mountains in North Carolina. Trips to Blowing Rock – and there are photos of the town being washed away. We were in Black Mountain and Asheville a few months ago for an All-Star baseball tournament. Loved our time there. I’m gutted by what happened to everyone in that region, and all areas impacted. I wish everyone well – and yes, this is certainly not an inspirational message, but I’m at a loss for words, until we know more. Onto the picks, as the SportsChump and TWHS present our Week 4 NFL Top Picks and CFB Bets.

Pick Your Knows

Confident with your own picks? Think you know who will cover? Go ahead, “pick your knows”.

This is a season long contest with potential prizes going out to our winners, so if you want to join in on the fun, drop a comment here at The Wife Hates Sports… or over at the land of the SportsChump.  We take our top five games of the week against the spread. If you beat us and go undefeated, that leads to fun prizes and heaps of praise on our websites.

Here are our TOP FIVE Best Bets for the week, including my Week 4 NFL Top Picks and College Football Best Bets. The list is ranked in order of confidence, from 50 “dollars” down to $10.

DraftKings Sportsbook: Current NFL and College Football Lines

Week 4 NFL Top Picks and CFB Bets – Well Wishes Edition

KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports

$50: Nebraska Cornhuskers (-10) at Purdue Boilermakers

The Cornhuskers hit the road following a disappointing seven point loss to ranked Illinois. Nebraska freshman QB Dylan Raiola (8 TD, 2 INT, 967 passing yards) has played well, and now faces a Purdue defense that ranks 9th in passing defense (123.3 ypg). That stat is a bit deceiving, however, considering opposing defenses have just 18.0 pass attempts per game, which is the fewest in College Football. Purdue is 94th in total defense and the Boilers have allowed 104 points in its last two games. Give me the more talented Huskers to post a multi-TD victory against its conference rivals. Nebraska covers on the road.

$40: Stanford Cardinal at Clemson Tigers (-21.5)

Since its blowout loss against Georgia, Dabo and the Tigers have rebounded by outscoring opponents 125-55. Clemson ranks 18th in total offense, while this week’s opponent – the Cardinal – ranks 94th. The Tigers frequently overwhelm and dominate opponents at home. In fact, I took a few minutes to do some number crunching during Dabo Swinney’s tenure at Clemson. The Tigers have won at home by three TD’s or more 57 different times. That’s if I counted it correctly, but you get the idea. That’s insane. These Tigers will be playing hard for all the families impacted by Hurricane Helene. Clemson covers at home.

$30: Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) at Indianapolis Colts

Anthony Richardson has struggled. The stats don’t lie: 49.3% completion percentage, 3 TD, 6 INT, and a 55.9 QB rating. That’s facing three solid defenses in the Bears, Packers, and Texans. It doesn’t get any easier this week, with T.J. Watt and the Steelers traveling to Indy. Watt has a sack in each of his first three games. Pittsburgh ranks first in total defense, allowing 687 total yards. They rank 5th against the pass and 3rd against the run. Opposing run games have managed just 3.5 yards per carry on the ground (2nd only to Baltimore). That leads to more pressure for Richardson to perform. Steelers cover on the road.

$20: Illinois Fighting Illini (+18) at Penn State Nittany Lions

I don’t get this line at all. Maybe I’m too tough on my alma mater. Sure, Bret Bielema gave some bulletin board material to fans stating he doesn’t know what “White Out Energy” is. Yes, Penn State ranks 7th in total offense (537.7 ypg), but that stat is bloated after facing an abysmal Kent State team. Five of the last nine meetings between these teams have a score differential of 17 points or less – and that’s with lesser Illinois teams. This Illini group is ranked and is well coached. Drew Allar and Penn State’s offensive balance and creativity should outlast the Illini, but this game should be competitive throughout. Give me Illinois and the points on the road.

$10: Kentucky Wildcats (+17.5) at Ole Miss Rebels

These teams continue to land on my top five radar each week and now they face each other. I’m a bit leery of the pick considering the Ole Miss offense, which ranks 1st in College Football, averaging 670.8 ypg). But let’s consider the opponents Ole Miss has faced: Furman, Middle Tennessee, Wake Forest, and Georgia Southern. Now, let’s look at the Wildcats, a team that held Georgia to just 13 points a few weeks ago. Kentucky ranks 10th in run defense and 2nd in pass defense, allowing just two TD through the air in four games. The Wildcats are more battle tested at this point in the season. Give me Kentucky and the points on the road.

On the Outside Looking In (Others I Like):

  • Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Which Baker shows? Which Eagles team?
  • Wisconsin Badgers (+16) at USC Trojans – My gut says Badgers will keep this close
  • Maryland Terrapins (+7) at Indiana Hoosiers – The Hoosiers are scoring 50 points per game?
  • Oklahoma Sooners (+1) at Auburn Tigers – What am I missing here? OU wins outright, no?
  • Georgia Bulldogs (-1) at Alabama Crimson Tide – Big moment for Kalen DeBoer!

 

Week 4 NFL Top Picks and More: SportsChump

$50 on Commanders-Cardinals (Over 49 ½)

I’m going to be bold.  There’s only one over/under on the board this weekend that’s hovering around 50 points.  49 ½ to be exact.  And I’m going to take it over.  After reminding the Bengals that they never play well the first month of the season, the Washington Commanders head into Arizona on an emotional high.  Their win was so convincing, with rookie quarterback Jaylen Daniels playing so confidently, that he is now, after Week Three, the odds-on favorite to win rookie of the year.  He’ll face another high-powered offense this weekend, another mobile young quarterback and another top draft pick who can beat you with both his feet and his arm, Kyler Murray. 

As usual, the Cardinals offense is scary, and now features more weapons.  The problem is, they can’t keep anyone from scoring.  Neither can the Commanders, who are fourth worst in the league defensively.  That’s a bad recipe for a team about to go against Arizona, even without Trey McBride.  With Daniels continuing to want to impress and Murray perfectly capable of one-upping him, I can easily see this becoming a shoot-out.  If so, start every Washington and Arizona player you can in fantasy and bet the over 49 ½.

$40 on Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-3 ½)

My fantasy ticker tells me not to start Jared Goff against the Seahawks.  After looking to see why that is, I soon discovered the Seahawks lead the league in fewest passing yards allowed per game.  Here’s where stats can be misleading.  En route to Seattle’s stellar secondary start, I found they did this against Bo Nix, Jacoby Brisset and Skylar Thompson, three quarterbacks who have combined to throw for one touchdown all season.  Jared Goff is not that kind of quarterback.  So technically, we don’t know how good, or bad, Seattle’s secondary is.  I’m guessing Goff will put them to the test. 

The ‘Hawks travel to Detroit this Monday night where two of the better teams in the NFC will square off.  The Lions, whose offense isn’t quite clicking yet, are one step closer to figuring things out, one would think at least.  Seattle is getting their respect; the line is only 3 ½.  After all, the Seahawks have impressed so far this season.  But again, look who they’ve played, three teams all with one win each.  Lions have faced stiffer competition and are more battle-tested, giving them the edge with a minimal spread.  Theretofore, I’m jumping on the Detroit minus 3 ½.

$30 on Colorado Buffaloes (+14 ½) at Central Florida Golden Knights

We’re back on the Prime Time Train.  I’ve probably lost more fake (and real) money betting on the Buffaloes these last two years than anyone I know.  As big fat underdogs, they’re just too tempting to bet money line.  They’re underdogs again this week heading into Orlando, with Sanders returning home to the state that made him famous.  While many have written off the Buffs, they’re quietly 3-1.  This week, they face UCF who might be looking ahead to their matchup next week in the Swamp. 

The Knights lead the nation in rushing yards per game (Thanks for that stat, Partykiller) so expect them to keep Colorado’s offense off the field on what could potentially be a muggy, post-Helene Florida day.  UCF is also stout defensively against the run, top ten in the nation.  But that’s not what Colorado does.  They like to air it out, which might be one of the only chinks in this underrated UCF team’s armor.  UCF is tough but 14 ½ is too many points to lay against a Colorado team that’s fifth in the nation in passing.  UCF has everything to lose, the Buffs have nothing to lose.  I’ll take prime time and the points.

$20 on Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+ 3)

If I were to tell you that, since 2015, the Buccaneers and Eagles have played each other six times, which team would you think had the winning record?  You’d probably guess the Eagles, right?  They seem to carry this image of being the better team.  What if I told you that the Buccaneers have beaten the Eagles five out of the last six times they played?  That includes a 32-9 beatdown in last year’s playoffs that sent the Eagles home for the season and their fans wondering what had just happened.  As good as the Eagles are, the Bucs have their number. 

The Eagles got away with one in New Orleans last week thanks to superstar performances from Dallas Goedert and Saquon Barkley.  But their top two receivers are potentially out for this game.  The loss of AJ Brown cannot be overstated.  Without him setting the tone, the Eagles offensive output has sputtered despite Barkley leading the league in rushing.  We’ve also seen their head coach make some questionable calls in key moments.  Similarly, the Bucs are trying to figure things out.  They followed up a spectacular performance in Detroit with a lackluster showing at home against previously winless Denver.  This isn’t a must-win for either team, they’re both 2-1.  But neither wants to drop to 2-2.  I’m getting 3 points and the team with the better head-to-head record, so I’ll take it and hope for the best.  Bucs cover.

$10 on Saints-Falcons (Over 42)

I looked long and hard to find my fifth game.  All the lines seemed spot on, which means they’ll probably go haywire this week.  I stumbled upon the Falcons-Saints over/under, which opened at 46 yet shot down to 42.  It struck me as odd as these games are typically high scoring.  I looked at the recent history between these teams to see if that was correct.  While the personnel on Atlanta was entirely different, the totals over the last six games ran 65, 39, 39, 53, 50 and 52.  The Saints have scored 47 and 44 in their first two games, albeit against the crappy defenses of Dallas and Carolina.  They sputtered in Week Three against Philly. 

Atlanta hasn’t exactly been lighting it up, but they’ve played against three potential playoff teams: Pittsburgh, Philly and KC.  We’ve slowly started to see Kirk Cousins feel more comfortable in that offense so much so that we’ve even had a few Kyle Pitts sightings, shocking fantasy owners everywhere.  Again, I’m not sure why this number dropped four whole points, but I’m inclined to take it over.  These teams don’t like each other, and they both can move the ball when so inclined.  In a game between two teams whose offenses I trust more than their defenses, I’ll take Saints-Falcons over 42.

 

Last Week’s Recap: The Wife Hates Sports

  • $50: Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6) – INCORRECT
  • $40: Ohio Bobcats at Kentucky Wildcats (-19.5) – CORRECT
  • $30: Houston Texans (-1.5) at Minnesota Vikings – INCORRECT
  • $20: Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Atlanta Falcons – CORRECT
  • $10: James Madison Dukes at North Carolina Tar Heels (-10) – INCORRECT

Last Week’s Recap: SportsChump

  • $50: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Louisville Cardinals (-10) – CORRECT
  • $40: Carolina Panthers at Las Vegas Raiders (Under 40 1/2) – INCORRECT
  • $30: Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) – CORRECT
  • $20: Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-4) – CORRECT
  • $10: California Golden Bears (+3) at Florida State Seminoles – INCORRECT

 

Season Stats for Kevin Paul and The Wife Hates Sports (Top Five Only)

  • NFL: 5-4 ($60)
  • CFB: 3-3 ($10)
  • Overall: 8-7 ($70)

Week-by-Week for Kevin Paul and The Wife Hates Sports (Top Five Only)

  • Week 01: NFL: 1-2 ($20) | CFB 1-1 (-$10) | Week: 2-3 ($10) | Overall: 2-3 ($10)
  • Week 02: NFL: 3-0 ($100) | CFB 1-1 (-$10) | Week: 4-1 ($90) | Overall: 6-4 ($100)
  • Week 03: NFL: 1-2 (-$60) | CFB 1-1 ($30) | Week: 2-3 (-$30) | Overall: 8-7 ($70)

Week-by-Week for the SportsChump (Top Five Only)

  • Week 01: NFL: 3-0 ($70) | CFB 0-3 (-$80) | Week: 2-3 (-$10) | Overall: 2-3 (-$10)
  • Week 02: NFL: 1-3 (-$60) | CFB 1-0 ($10) | Week: 2-3 (-$50) | Overall: 4-6 (-$60)
  • Week 03: NFL: 2-1 ($10) | CFB 1-1 ($40) | Week: 3-2 ($50) | Overall: 7-8 (-$10)

 

Stats via CFBStats.com 

Chime in with your top picks for the week.  Also, if you have interest in being a guest picker, let us know via the comments below. Thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!

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