With the pandemic still very much in play, we don’t quite know how the upcoming NFL season will pan out. There are new protocols and face masks, but will teams be able to get through the schedule without widespread issues? Despite all this, Fantasy Football lives on – at least for now. Although, it’s key to build a deep roster with a lot of movable parts, because you never know when a player is going to be out due to a failed test. To help maneuver you through this chaotic stretch, here are my top Fantasy Football Tight End Busts for the 2020 NFL season.
When it comes to measuring out busts, I look at the average draft position (ADP) in ESPN leagues. Plain and simple, a bust is measured as a player being drafted way too high in leagues.
As a side note, this list features non-rookies. If you want data on rookies, see my write-up from earlier this summer: Fantasy Football Rookies: Under the Radar Names with Late Round Value.
Here are a few bold predictions – my 2020 Fantasy Football Tight End busts:
Fantasy Football Tight End Busts for the 2020 NFL Season
Rob Gronkowski – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TE6 | ADP: 70.1)
The Brady-to-Gronk combo is back after a two-year hiatus. That’s attractive to a lot of people, considering the chemistry and history. But let’s not forget some other key factors: 1) Gronk hasn’t played in two years, 2) Brady is playing in a new system, 3) There are a ton of other weapons to throw to and 4) Gronk has a history of injuries. Between 2016-18, Gronkowski played in just 35 games. That’s just 73% of the regular season. He also had just 47 receptions in 2018 and 25 in 2016. There’s too much uncertainty when it comes to what this Tampa team will look like and there are just too many other options to consider for your lineups. The tight end position is a bit deeper than usual (at least, on paper). I just don’t see old glory here, but a guy that will show some flashes and finish outside the TE top ten.
Disagree? Get your Gronk Bucs gear here!
Hunter Henry – Los Angeles Chargers (TE9 | 98.6)
Don’t get me wrong, I love Hunter Henry’s talent, but the guy can’t stay on the field long enough. He didn’t play a snap in 2018, for one. In 2019, he was injured at the beginning of the season and managed to scrap out 12 games, with 55 receptions. It’s not just the injury bug, though. Let’s not forget that Philip Rivers has moved on to Indianapolis and the QB position is a bit of a question mark with this team. Sure, if Justin Herbert takes over, there’s the possibility of the “rookies love to throw to the TE” play. But there are too many unknowns and better options in nearby rounds.
Noah Fant – Denver Broncos (TE11 | ADP 120.4)
Fant is a talented player and a high draft pick that comes with lofty expectations. Drew Lock impressed in the final month of last season and a number of other WR pieces added make this a youthful and talented offense. However, I’m not sure I’d put Fant in that breakout category just yet. Fant had just 11 targets over the final four games last season. One catch for four yards in the season finale is nothing to get excited about when it comes to Fantasy. Yet, here he is, going ahead of the likes of Hayden Hurst, Austin Hooper and Mike Gesicki in drafts. What am I missing?
Zach Ertz – Philadelphia Eagles (TE3 | ADP: 40.3) – Semi-Bust
Do I think Ertz is likely to still be a productive Fantasy TE this season? Yes, absolutely. With that said, I believe the downward trend in his production will continue and there are a few reasons why. First off, there’s Dallas Goedert, another top ten Fantasy TE. Last year, Ertz’s targets dropped from 156 in 2018 to 135. Yes, that’s still a monstrous total. Goedert himself had 88 targets. On top of this, consider the fact that the Eagles had no productive WR’s available. The offense was decimated by injuries and the Eagles boosted its WR core during the draft and offseason. Therefore, in addition to Goedert, there will be others to throw to. Ertz is a year older and while he should have a decent year, it won’t be enough to satisfy the 40th pick in the draft. Not during a COVID-19 season that will require exceptional roster depth.
Disagree? Support your Eagles!
Now that you have viewed this mini-list, let’s talk Fantasy Football, shall we? Do you agree or disagree with any or all of these selections?
Who do you consider to be at the top of your list of Fantasy Football Tight End Busts?
Chime in via the comments below and as always, thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!
Current ESPN ADP as of August 22, 2020
Image Credit: Rob Gronkowski Twitter