NFL Week 15 Picks: KP, Sports Chump Pick Spreads vs. the Wife and a Coin Flip

Here I am, about to make my NFL Week 15 Picks, but…

Guys, I can’t.

I just can’t.

The WIFE – yes, the WIFE that HATES sports – is STILL winning this grand experiment, despite going 6-10 against the spread last week.

After numerous years of high percentage picking, I find myself floundering, and behind someone who makes selections as she lazily searches Instagram, checks Facebook statuses, watches chick flicks, and heck… even as she is falling asleep on the couch. 

She averages about three or four requests to repeat a game during each week.  She has even asked “Why aren’t the Broncos playing?”, only to have me come back and say, “They are playing, and you already picked them”. 

She’s not a Broncos fan… she HATES sports, remember? 

No, she just knows that Peyton Manning plays for them, and he makes funny commercials.

Seriously, I can’t.

There are three weeks to make this right, and Week 14 was a good start.

Week 14 Results:

KP (The Wife Hates Sports) – 9-7

Coin Flip – 9-7

Special Guest (Rising Storms) – 7-9

Sports Chump – 8-7-1

The WIFE (that HATES sports) – 6-10

Over in the “Pick Your Knows” department, well, you know the results….

2014 NFL Season Standings (Against the Spread)

• A push is counted as a tie in the standings
• Slight variation in spreads due to time and site used for picks

NFL Week 15 Picks: Don’t expect Drew Brees to have his hands on his hips while facing Chicago’s struggling defense

It’s once again time to “Pick Your Knows” – the only time it’s not a disgusting habit – and here are our NFL Week 15 Picks (with spreads as they appeared through CBS Sports on 12/10/14).

KP’s “Pick Your Knows”: 2014 NFL Week 15 Picks

KP’s Week 14 Recap (Season Total):

Against the Spread: 9-7 (107-101, 51%)

Straight Up: 11-5 (136-72, 65%)

Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams (-3.5)

The Rams have posted back-to-back shutouts and have home field advantage against an Arizona team that while injury depleted, still owns the best record in the conference.  Andre Ellington was placed on IR, which will only hurt an Arizona rushing offense that is already ranked 30^th in the NFL.  On top of that, Drew Stanton has been erratic, and will be facing a St. Louis pass rush that is on fire, and very aggressive.  Then again, no matter how often the Cards are counted out, Arizona manages to find a way.  With that in mind, I do think this will be a close game, and a very low-scoring one.  Seriously, take the under – and if you like shootouts, you should instead say, “Shoot me”.  I’ll take the Rams at home, by a field goal, 13-10.  Therefore, take the Cards and the points.

Against the Spread: Arizona Cardinals

Straight Up: St. Louis Rams

NFL Week 15 Picks UPDATE: Cardinals 12, Rams 6 – Another Arizona injury as QB Drew Stanton goes down

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5)

The Raiders are winless on the road and Arrowhead is an extremely difficult place for opponents to play.  Oakland will be without LB Sio Moore, one of the team’s leading tacklers.  This will deliver a blow to a run defense that is already 24th in the NFL, while also allowing 13 touchdowns on the ground.  That should be a good sign for Jamaal Charles and a Kansas City rushing offense that is ranked 6th in the NFL.  Expect the Chiefs to control the ground game and cruise to a two-TD revenge win at home.

Against the Spread: Kansas City Chiefs

Straight Up: Kansas City Chiefs

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-7.5)

The Patriots will be seeking revenge on its home turf after Miami took the first game in the opening week of the season.  Dating back to 2011, the Pats have won each of its four home games in this series, and are also undefeated in front of its home crowd this season.  The Dolphins have struggled on defense in recent weeks, and gave up 39 points in Denver three weeks back.  Expect a similar performance by Tom Brady and the Pats’ equally explosive offense.  New England covers.

Against the Spread: New England Patriots

Straight Up: New England Patriots

Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons (+1.5)

Look at what A.J. Green did against Pittsburgh’s defense last weekend (11 catches, 224 yds, 1 TD).  Julio Jones could very well do something similar, that is, if he plays.  Jones is questionable and a game-time decision.  If he plays, I like the Falcons.  If not, Harry Douglas, Roddy White and Matt Ryan should still lead this in the direction of a shootout, but Atlanta’s defense likely won’t be able to stop Roethlisberger and the Steelers.  Call it the Julio Jones decision.  Currently, my best guess is that he will be out, and therefore, I’m going with the Steelers.

Against the Spread: Pittsburgh Steelers

Straight Up: Pittsburgh Steelers

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-6.5)

The Texans are 1-4 ATS in its last five road games against the Colts, and have lost four straight in Indianapolis, dating back to 2010.  Houston will likely use a heavy dose of its fourth-ranked rushing offense, in hopes to keep Andrew Luck off the field as much as possible.  Luck, meanwhile, will push Indy’s top-rated passing offense against a Houston defense that is ranked 28th against the pass.  In the end, I think Luck and the Colts will prove to be too much playing at home.  Indy covers.

Against the Spread: Indianapolis Colts

Straight Up: Indianapolis Colts

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-6.5)

Colt McCoy has been medically cleared and is set to start against the Giants.  Eli Manning will play for the Giants, as will Rashad Jennings.  Washington’s pass defense has allowed 28 touchdowns, while managing just five interceptions.  This unit likely has no answer for an explosive Odell Beckham, Jr., as long as Eli has solid pass protection.  One awkward hit on McCoy’s neck, and this could be RGIII’s show again.  With that risk in play and the Giants playing at home, I’m taking New York to cover.

Against the Spread: New York Giants

Straight Up: New York Giants

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (+1.5)

A.J. Green has been a beast lately, and he will be the key to this game.  Last time facing the Browns, Joe Haden was able to shut down Green, holding the star receiver to just three catches (over ten targets).  Cleveland won that game on the road, and now get the Bengals at home.  With Johnny Manziel getting his first start, the stadium will likely be electric, but I rarely go for the rookie quarterback, especially in games like this.  This one is just too important for the Bengals.  Manziel will make too many mistakes, and Cincinnati finds a way to win, despite the possibility of another sub-par A.J. Green stat line.

Against the Spread: Cincinnati Bengals

Straight Up: Cincinnati Bengals

Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens (-13.5)

The Ravens defense – led by Elvis Dumervil – proved that it can still dominate, even without Haloti Ngata to wreak havoc in the trenches.  Dumervil is putting up monster numbers, and should have another big day against a Jacksonville team that has allowed the most sacks in the NFL (54).  The Jags are also without Denard Robinson, who had given the team a spark (and some balance) offensively.  Baltimore is loaded with weapons and currently in a very tight division race.  Jacksonville has put up a solid fight against many teams in recent weeks, but this one could get out of hand in Baltimore – and fast.  Ravens win big at home.

Against the Spread: Baltimore Ravens

Straight Up: Baltimore Ravens

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-5.5)

Cam Newton was in a car accident and will not play, paving the way for Derek Anderson to get another start.  Anderson had a very solid start against these Bucs on September 7th, throwing for 230 yards, with two touchdowns.  Tampa Bay has improved offensively, with Mike Evans breaking out and becoming a major force.  That, plus the Carolina defense has floundered, allowing points in bunches.  With Newton shelved, I like the Bucs to win this one outright on the road.

Against the Spread: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Straight Up: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills (+6.5)

There’s a slight chance for rain in Buffalo, but no crazy winds or storms expected.  The Packers are playing on short rest, and will be challenged by a Buffalo defense that leads the league in sacks, with 48.  The Packers have won each of its last three games by six points or less, which makes this an interesting line, especially considering Green Bay’s 3-3 road record.  While I correctly predicted that the Bills would keep last week’s game close versus the Broncos, I am picking against Buffalo this time.  Aaron Rodgers only needs to push the Pack to win by a TD, and that seems like a good bet to me.

Against the Spread: Green Bay Packers

Straight Up: Green Bay Packers

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (+1.5)

Unless you’re a die-hard fan of either team, you may have more fun watching paint dry.  Both teams are 2-11, and the Jets are winless on the road.  The Titans have lost by 19 or more points in each of its last three games, while the Jets have fared slightly better.  Overall, I look for New York to push its run game against a Titans defense that is last in the NFL against the run.  Jets win in a barn burner.

Against the Spread: New York Jets

Straight Up: New York Jets

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+4.5)

Peyton Manning has thrown two interceptions in four of his last six games, raising question marks about his performance and arm strength.  Peyton will never pull a Rodgers and say “relax”, but he’s going to be fine, and getting Julius Thomas back will help him and a potent Denver offense.  The Broncos are also 11-4 in its last 15 games against division foes.  Denver covers.

Against the Spread: Denver Broncos

Straight Up: Denver Broncos

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5)

The Niners are falling apart, losing last week to the Raiders and the previous week at home against these Seahawks.  The two games before that were wins, albeit tight ones against the two cellar dwellers in the NFC East.  Seattle is really clicking, and has lost just once this season in front of its home fans.  Speaking of trends, the Niners are 0-5 in its last five road games against Seattle.  Let’s make it six.

Against the Spread: Seattle Seahawks

Straight Up: Seattle Seahawks

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-7.5)

The Vikings are fighting through injuries on offense and scored just three points against these Lions earlier in the season.  Detroit is 6-1 at home, while Minnesota is just 2-4 on the road.  The Lions have the league’s best run defense, allowing just 62.8 ypg on the ground.  Detroit’s pass defense has 17 interceptions, as well.  Throw in Calvin Johnson, who is healthy and putting up big numbers in recent weeks, and you have a game that could get out of hand quickly.  Detroit covers.

Against the Spread: Detroit Lions

Straight Up: Detroit Lions

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)

The Cowboys have had a few extra days rest, and will be seeking revenge from its Thanksgiving day blowout loss to these Eagles.  Dallas is 6-0 on the road, while the Eagles are 6-1 at home, making this an even more intriguing matchup – and battle for the NFC East division.  The road team has actually won five of the last six games in this series, and Tony Romo acknowledged issues with the team’s preparation and performance on Thanksgiving.  I expect this second matchup to be a lot closer than the previous one, coming down to a late field goal.  Therefore, with the line, I’m obviously taking the Cowboys – and my gut says that Dallas finds a way to get a win, too.

Against the Spread: Dallas Cowboys

Straight Up: Dallas Cowboys

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (+3.5)

The Bears have had a few extra days to rest and prepare, but will be without Brandon Marshall, who is out for the season.  Losing Marshall will be a big hit, leaving Marquess Wilson to fill in for him, and the Alshon Jeffery – Martellus Bennett combo to fill in a bigger role.  Both teams have really struggled on defense, specifically against the pass, where the two units have combined to allow 52 touchdowns, with just 19 interceptions.  Despite how disappointing these teams have been, it should be a fun watch… if you like offense.  For me, it comes down to the absence of Marshall, and the Saints win by a touch.

Against the Spread: New Orleans Saints

Straight Up: New Orleans Saints

THE WIFE

She HATES sports, but will pick teams in hopes of leading to your embarrassment.  No blurb, just her NFL Week 15 Picks.  Heck, we’re lucky to get that much.

Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams (-3.5) – Rams

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) – Raiders

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-7.5) – Patriots

Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) – Steelers

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-6.5) – Texans

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-6.5) – Giants

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (+1.5) – Bengals

Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens (-13.5) – Ravens

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-5.5) – Bucs

Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills (+6.5) – Packers

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (+1.5) – Jets

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+4.5) – Broncos

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5) – 49ers

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-7.5) – Lions

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) – Eagles

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (+3.5) – Saints

COIN FLIP – NFL Week 15 Picks

This quarter refuses to be referred to as “Chump change”… see what I did there?  Oh, and by the way, HEADS equals the HOME team, and TAILS is a vote for the AWAY team.

Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams (-3.5) – Cardinals

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) – Chiefs

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-7.5) – Patriots

Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) – Steelers

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-6.5) – Colts

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-6.5) – Giants

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (+1.5) – Browns

Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens (-13.5) – Jaguars

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-5.5) – Bucs

Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills (+6.5) – Bills

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (+1.5) –  Jets

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+4.5) – Broncos

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5) –  Seahawks

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-7.5) –  Lions

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) –  Eagles

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (+3.5) –  Bears

…..

SPORTSCHUMP’S Picks

Here are a few of the Chump’s picks for this week.  For the rest, visit Sports Chump!

JACKSONVILLE +14 at BALTIMORE

This is like sending lambs to the slaughterhouse.  How did Baltimore get lucky enough to have a late-season tune-up on their schedule?  The other Harbaugh has to be secretly thanking Commissioner Goodell, which is probably the first nice thing he’s had to say about him since he suspended his star running back for elevator misconduct.  The Ravens are clicking but are currently the first team out of the playoffs if the season ended today.  Fortunately for Baltimore it doesn’t.  Unfortunately for Jacksonville, it doesn’t either.  The Ravens cover.

PITTSBURGH -2 at ATLANTA

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 1-2 against the worst division in football.  This weekend, they close out that divisional series with a trip to play the Atlanta Falcons who just lost a shootout to the Patriots on Monday night.  Atlanta has played three straight against opponents that are over .500.  The Steelers have played three of their last four games against the likes of New York, Tennessee and New Orleans, in none of which they looked overly impressive.  Believe it or not, at 5-8 the Falcons still control their own destiny.  They’ll keep that up as they beat the Steelers this weekend in the Georgia Dome.

HOUSTON +6.5 at INDIANAPOLIS

Andrew Luck broke the hearts of Cleveland last week as he drove his Colts down field to beat the Brownies in the final seconds of the game.  Not only that, he may have finally put Brian Hoyer out of a job.  This was just the win the Colts needed heading into post-season play, a tough road win proving they could come behind against a quality opponent.  I don’t see the Colts letting up this weekend.  Houston’s won three of their last four but two of those wins were against Tennessee and Jacksonville.  Neither of those two teams are anywhere near as good as Indy.  I’m taking the Colts here to cover.

Special Guest: Bill Freitas

A guest courtesy of the Chump, here are a few of Bill’s selections, with the rest over at Sports Chump…

Washington @ New York Giants – Really? I have to pick this one? Okay, the Redskins are terrible. The Giants are terrible. The Corleones are picking the G-Spots minus 6 ½, but they beat Jacksonville by one friggen point. Giants win, but Redskins cover. Looks like it’s okay to say Redskins again. Even Phil Simms reversed himself. Selective outrage much? REDSKINS!

Miami @ New England – The Fins haven’t been relevant since Marino routinely lost in the playoffs and Darth Belichik seems to get hot despite the spoiled Patriot nation inevitably wondering if the dynasty is over early in the season after losing to Miami in week one. The Dolphins haven’t really beaten anybody worth pounding your chest since then and the Pats not only have a better record, but also against slightly more formidable opponents. Tony Soprano picked New England -7 ½. Take it all day. I do hate them so.

Oakland @ Kansas City – Wait, Oakland beat San Francisco? Well, look at you little pirates go. Good for you. The Chiefs are in a bit of a spiral after losing three in a row beginning in…well, hey! Oakland! Can the Raiders make it two wins in a row against their division foes? No. Hell, no. Will KC cover the 10 points? Dammit, spreads are hard. Usually, I just circle a team every week on a hunch in my office pool. I already circled the Chiefs, so…what the hell. They win and cover. Oakland blows…all the way to LA (see what I did there?