March Madness 2010: Reasons to Avoid Some of the Higher Seeds

Looking for a reason to not take a team far in the March Madness tournament? 

You’re not alone there.

Trust me, f you look hard enough, there are plenty of reasons to shy away from even the biggest powers in college basketball… from injuries, to offensive woes, defensive woes, free throw shooting and even single points of failure.

Take the following examples, which could assist you in adding the finishing touches to the masterpiece that is your 2010 NCAA Tournament bracket.

March Madness: Reasons To Avoid Some of the Higher Seeds in the 2010 NCAA Tournament

Free Throw Shooting

Think about it, March Madness is chock full of close games.  When down to the wire, it’s often the players with ice in their veins that win the tight games from the charity stripe.  Last year, high seeds Louisville (ranked 298^th) and Syracuse (303^rd) were near the cellar in free throw shooting – and what do you know, neither brought home a national championship.  What about this year?

(5) Texas A&M – 66.1% – Rank 263^rd

(2) Kansas State – 66.5% – Rank 250^th

(1) Syracuse – 67.1% – Rank 234^th

Offensive Rebounds per Game

Hey, what’s better than a second chance?  Well, besides making due with your first chance, but often teams can earn those big victories by getting a high total of second chance points.  Last year, teams like Purdue and Arizona State were ranked low in this department – and you guessed it, they didn’t go far.  What about this year?

(2) Ohio State – 9.1 per game – Rank 321^st

(5) Butler – 9.2 per game – Rank 314^th

(4) Wisconsin – 9.7 per game – Rank 291^st

(3) Georgetown – 9.7 per game – Rank 291^st

Assist Turnover Ratio

More often than not, an efficient and quality team effort will vault a team deep into the tournament.  Specifically, there’s assist turnover ratio, where a team can dish out the rock frequently, while also not turning it over.  Washington, Wake Forest and Florida State all were high seeds that struggled in this department last season.  This year, there were few with a low ranking, but these potential opponents to high seeds were ranked high:

(12) Utah State – 1.65 ATR – Rank: 1^st – Watch out (5) Texas A&M!

(6) Notre Dame – 1.64 ATR – Rank: 2^nd – Watch out (3) Baylor!

(6) Marquette – 1.47 ATR – Rank: 6^th – Watch out (3) New Mexico!

(4) Wisconsin – 1.44 ATR – Rank 7^th – Watch out (5) Temple and (1) Kentucky!

Fouls per Game

Plain and simple, you can’t win a game without your starting lineup on the court.  A team needs to have discipline to avoid silly fouls, while also keeping an opponent off the line (and away from the double bonus).  Last year, Missouri and Washington were high seeds with high foul totals per game.  This year, a few two-seeds are guilty of reaching in one too many times…

(2) Kansas State – 22.4 per game – Rank 8^th

(2) Villanova – 22.4 per game – Rank 8^th

Three Point Shooting

For the teams that struggle from behind the arc – therefore when facing a physical opponent, they can struggle to keep a team honest by mixing it up from deep.  There are also teams that borderline live and die by the three – and when an off night arrives – this team could be doomed.  Last year, Memphis and Wake Forest struggled from 3-point range and teams like Gonzaga and Xavier relied a lot on high three-point percentage.  As for this year:

Struggles from Behind the Arc

(6) Tennessee – 31.3% – 280^th

(4) Purdue – 31.9% – 263^rd

Lives and Dies by the 3

(1) Kansas – 40.9% – Rank 5^th

(6) Marquette – 40.6% – Rank 6^th

(3) Baylor – 38.9% – Rank 20^th

(2) Ohio State – 38.8% – Rank 21^st

(3) Georgetown – 38.8% – Rank 21^st

(1) Syracuse – 38.5% – Rank 25^th

Injuries

An injury to a star player can derail a team that once had high hopes of a National Title entering the tournament.  Last year, there were a lot of injury questions, including Ty Lawson, Levance Fields, Jerome Dyson and Dominic James,  This year, not as many, but here are a few:

(4) Robbie Hummel – Purdue

This one is well documented – and a tough one for the Boilermakers.  Hummel was the backbone of this talented Purdue team – and he’s out with a knee injury.  Now, the Boilers have gone from Final Four potential to an often-mentioned first round upset to Siena.

(1) Syracuse – Arinze Onuaku

Certainly, the Orange and their faithful held their collective breath when the big man went down.  Currently, it’s listed as a quad injury and Onuaku is expected to play in the NCAA Tournament, but who knows how much his game will be affected.

Single Points of Failure

Last but not least, there are the teams that have one player that puts up the majority of the scoring on offense.  Upon meeting a tough defensive opponent that can shut this player down, it’s often difficult to find others to step up and put points on the board.  Last year, there were more obvious cases, such as Toney Douglas and James Harden.  Here are this year’s options:

(7) Oklahoma State – James Anderson – 22.63 PPG

Sure, Muonelo averages 13.4 per game, but the Pokes live and die by this guy – and the Buckeyes (potential second-round opponent) have a few shutdown defensive players.

(7) BYU – Jimmer Fredette – 21.66 PPG

The Cougars do have four players that average in double figures, but if you shut down the heart and soul of the team – there’s a good chance you escape with a win.

(6) Xavier – Jordan Crawford – 19.7 PPG

Two others average less than 12 points per game, but Xavier doesn’t have the depth it has had in recent seasons.

(4) Maryland – Greivis Vasquez – 19.52 PPG

Four players average in double figures, but Vasquez is the clear star for the Terps.

Good luck with your March Madness brackets!

Stats courtesy of StatSheet.com

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