While THE WIFE sighs at the thought of football taking over the TV for the majority of weekends to come, football lovers rejoice at the triumphant return of the NFL. So let’s celebrate with some healthy debate and a Vegas twist.  As I have done in the past, my 2026 NFL Season Predictions will focus on the NFL Over/Under win totals for the upcoming season.

The SportsChump – a longtime friend, writer, bartender, and likely owner of creamsicle-colored Bucs gear – is back with his 16th Annual Over/Under Contest, challenging his readers to predict the upcoming regular season win totals of NFL teams, specifically extracting a top ten and assigning confidence points to each.

Yours truly is a three-time winner. Before making some pigskin prognostication, let’s first provide the full list of NFL Over/Under win totals, per Vegas.

Team – 2026 O/U Wins

  • Arizona Cardinals – 3.5
  • Atlanta Falcons – 7.5
  • Baltimore Ravens – 11.5
  • Buffalo Bills – 10.5
  • Carolina Panthers – 7.5
  • Chicago Bears – 9.5
  • Cincinnati Bengals – 9.5
  • Cleveland Browns – 5.5
  • Dallas Cowboys – 9.5
  • Denver Broncos – 9.5
  • Detroit Lions – 10.5
  • Green Bay Packers – 9.5
  • Houston Texans – 9.5
  • Indianapolis Colts – 7.5
  • Jacksonville Jaguars – 9.5
  • Kansas City Chiefs – 10.5
  • Las Vegas Raiders – 5.5
  • Los Angeles Chargers – 10.5
  • Los Angeles Rams – 11.5
  • Miami Dolphins – 4.5
  • Minnesota Vikings – 8.5
  • New England Patriots – 10.5
  • New Orleans Saints – 7.5
  • New York Giants – 7.5
  • New York Jets – 5.5
  • Philadelphia Eagles – 10.5
  • Pittsburgh Steelers – 8.5
  • San Francisco 49ers – 10.5
  • Seattle Seahawks – 10.5
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 8.5
  • Tennessee Titans – 6.5
  • Washington Commanders – 7.5

In order by confidence, here are my top ten team picks for the 2026 NFL season:

2026 NFL Season Predictions: Team Over/Under Win Total Best Bets

10. Buffalo Bills – (10.5 wins – OVER)

New faces on the coaching staff will not deter me from believing in the Bills – and I’m a guy that grew up in the era of the frequently used “Boy I Love to Lose Super Bowls” acronym. Sure, there will be some defensive scheme changes and Joe Brady takes over as the new HC, but the talent is there on both sides of the ball. DJ Moore steps in as the new #1 receiver. Josh Allen has 25 or more passing TD’s in six straight seasons. Let’s not forget four division games against the Jets and Dolphins. This team has all the pieces, it’s just whether they can stay healthy and gel with the staff changes.

KP’s Prediction: 12-5 and a deep playoff run

9. Philadelphia Eagles – (10.5 wins – OVER)

The Eagles have eleven or more wins in four straight years and a winning record in eight of its last nine seasons. Overall, the NFC East improved during the offseason and it should be a competitive division. Many will point to the departure of AJ Brown and the potential decline of Saquon Barkley leading to an even weaker offensive unit, but I would challenge that. Brown was more of a distraction last season and had eight games where he totaled less than 50 receiving yards. Barkley had just three one-hundred rushing yard games and had a down year, but the 29 year-old still has plenty of juice in the tank. The defense should be a handful for opposing offenses. Overall, this is a talented group.

KP’s Prediction: 11-6 and a division title

8. Los Angeles Rams – (11.5 wins – OVER)

Betting on twelve wins is a tall order, but this is the most talented NFL team on paper. Aggressive pick or not, I’m sticking with it. If the Rams stay relatively healthy, watch out. Yes, the division may be the toughest in the NFL, but good luck moving the ball against a defense that features Aaron Donald, Myles Garrett, Nate Landman, Poona Ford, among others. The offense is – and likely will be – equally as explosive. This team is a Super Bowl contender, especially if they get off to a hot start during the opening five weeks against stiff competition (49ers, Giants, Broncos, Eagles, and Bills).

KP’s Prediction: 12-5 and a deep playoff run

7. Cleveland Browns – (5.5 wins – UNDER)

There are some favorable matchups and winnable games on the schedule (Jets, Titans, Raiders), but this is the Browns. New coach, same Browns. Cleveland traded away its franchise player (Myles Garrett). Although, Jared Verse is a solid replacement. Just not Myles. There’s a lot of hype surrounding rookie WR KC Concepcion, among others. In the end, this comes down to quarterback play and the fact the Browns felt that the controversial Deshaun Watson was the guy to lead the team on the field. The numbers are simply not there since Watson joined the Browns. Therefore, it’s hard to expect much from this team.

KP’s Prediction: 5-12 and a continued need for a franchise QB

6. New York Jets – (5.5 wins – UNDER)

I didn’t flip a coin between the Jets and Browns, but I easily could have. As with Cleveland, it starts with quarterback play. Geno Smith has 32 INT’s over the last two seasons combined (with the Seahawks and Raiders). Schedule-wise, the Jets have to face the Packers, Lions, and Bears during the first month – oh my! Add in four division games against the Patriots and Bills, too. There were a few key pieces added on defense during the offseason (David Onyemata, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and Demario Davis), but it’s hard to expect this to significantly impact the results in the win column. Considering New York was 3-14 last season, this is an ask to double their win total. I simply don’t see it.

KP’s Prediction: 5-12 and more quality memes to send your favorite Jets fans

5. Denver Broncos – (9.5 wins – OVER)

This tells me that a lot of people think the Broncos were a fluke last year. Sure, the division is tough, but this is a very strong and well balanced team. The opening six weeks of the schedule is brutal for Denver. Survive that and Weeks 7 through 15 feature games against the Cardinals, Panthers, Dolphins, Jets, and Raiders (twice). Jaylen Waddle joins the offense. J.K. Dobbins is healthy (we’ll see for how long). Bo Nix has 54 TD’s in his first two seasons – and some may even argue he’s a bit underrated. I know I would. Some also consider Denver to have the best O-line in the NFL. Overall, there’s a lot to like with this team.

KP’s Prediction: 11-6 and another run in the playoffs

4. Detroit Lions – (10.5 wins – OVER)

This year will be interesting for Detroit. Critics started to question if the success was more tied to Ben Johnson. Others denied that and focused more on the significant injuries that piled up for Detroit during the course of the year. Either way, this team is still loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. On top of that, the schedule is extremely favorable. Four of Detroit’s opening five games are against the Saints, Jets, Panthers, and Cardinals. The division foes have some questions, as well. We don’t know how Kyler will be in Minnesota and the Josh Jacobs situation in Green Bay could have an impact. Then, there’s that Ben Johnson guy (and the Bears). A lot to like in Detroit this year.

KP’s Prediction: 11-6 and a division title

3. Tennessee Titans – (6.5 wins – UNDER)

Robert Saleh takes over a Tennessee team that was 3-14 last season. The ask is a four win gain for a guy that has a career 20-36 record as a head coach. Saleh has been open and honest with his feelings about QB Cam Ward, who he says will be a star. The additions of rookie WR Carnell Tate and free agent Wan’Dale Robinson make this group of pass catchers a potential force. There were a number of defensive additions as well. It will be interesting to see what the defensive-minded Saleh can do with that group. It’s a tall order to more than double your wins in one season. Considering a competitive division, it’s not out of the realm of possibility, but there are a lot of challenging opponents on the schedule.

KP’s Prediction: 6-11 and some hope for the future

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – (8.5 wins – OVER)

Baker Mayfield is the centerpiece of this story. The first reaction to making my picks at SportsChump was that this was Baker’s contract year. As I’m writing this, Mayfield agreed to a three-year contract extension. So much for that! Still, he’s secured. The division is also very winnable, which will help when it comes to strength of schedule. The Bucs also had a lot of injuries in the trenches last year. A healthy group will help both the offense and the defense. Mike Evans is gone, but he was hurt most of the year. With Egbuka and Godwin healthy, I’m not worried about the receivers. The addition of Kenny Gainwell will be a nice compliment to go along with Bucky Irving. I like the Bucs to have a winning season.

KP’s Prediction: 10-7 and a division title

1. Seattle Seahawks – (10.5 wins – OVER)

Last year’s Super Bowl champs return most of their players, yet sit with a 10.5-win mark with Vegas. So why rank them so low on the list? Well, Vegas tends to know something, right? I realize the absence of Kenneth Walker III (now in Kansas City), although many have sung the praises of rookie RB Jadarian Price. The division is likely the toughest in the NFL, as well. It’s not an easy schedule for the ‘Hawks. In fact, only four games look like heavy favorites (Arizona twice, Raiders, Panthers). But again, no need to list all the players if you follow football. Most of these guys are back and this is a very good roster. If the Seahawks can stay relatively healthy, they’ll be in the mix.

KP’s Prediction: 11-6 and a return to the playoffs (but no back-to-back titles)

 

Agree to disagree?  Who are your picks and why?  Sound off in the comments below!

As always, thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!

References: OurLads Depth Charts

 

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