I set a new record in this contest. Not a record that I want – at all. It’s probably obvious what that means. Uh huh, winless in my top five. What’s funny is I won multiple parlays last weekend, all tied to other picks I listed, as well as additional player props. Yet, here we are. Oh well. There are plenty of weeks left and other records that can be set. Speaking of records, how about some music? The theme for my Week 6 Football Betting Picks is the band Twenty One Pilots. Why, you may ask? A few reasons, really.

First off, I love Twenty One Pilots. The duo of Tyler Joseph and Josh Dun has quickly become one of my favorite artists for many reasons. They are also my son’s favorite band – by a landslide. Every single time he goes to baseball (whether practice or a tournament), he’s listening to them prior. My son has been through a lot this year. I won’t get into it, because it’s not something I want to put out there to the entire world. Not that the entire world is reading this. Just trust me on this one. So when we hear these guys on Spotify, I know the sound takes him to a different place where he can escape.

TOP in Columbus

I’d love to take him to see Twenty One Pilots live in the future. I want it to be his first concert. It’s not easy to get tickets – and it’s also not cheap either. This weekend, the band is headlining a homecoming concert (in Columbus, OH – where they are from) at Ohio Stadium, the home of the Buckeyes.

We’ll forgive them. Sorry guys, I’m a Penn State alum. We can’t help but be anti-Ohio State, at least in the mediocre jokes department. I respect what they are as a football program, as you’ll soon see.

Also, a side note: Death Cab for Cutie (a band that helped get me through neurosurgery nearly a decade ago) is opening for Twenty One Pilots this weekend. Talk about a show that we’d love to be at.

Music can be so impactful. These two bands have helped my family through a lot. You wish they knew the direct impact. Therefore, because they are hosting this monstrous concert showing how far they’ve come, I’m dedicating this week’s picks to Twenty One Pilots, with a hat tip to Death Cab for Cutie, as well. Each of this week’s top picks will have a tie to a song by Twenty One Pilots.

Well, at least mine will – and after last week’s selections…

“I tried to warn you just to stay away.” – Twenty One Pilots – “Heathens”

Indirectly, at least.

Contest Reminder

This is a season long contest with potential prizes going out to our winners, so if you want to join in on the fun, drop a comment here or over at the land of the SportsChump.  We take our top five bets of the week against the spread (in both the NFL and College Football). If you beat us and go undefeated, that leads to fun prizes and/or heaps of praise on our websites.

With that said, here are our TOP FIVE picks for the week, including my Week 6 Football Betting Picks. The list is ranked in order of confidence, from 50 “dollars” down to $10.

Week 6 Football Betting Picks – Twenty One Pilots Edition

KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates/Loves Sports

$50: Ohio State Buckeyes (-2.5) at Indiana Hoosiers

“Reachin’ out on my way home / You can be so cold, I’ll try again” – Twenty One Pilots, “Midwest Indigo”

It’s silly to place a game at the top of your list because it ties with your weekly theme’s hometown. Let’s go for it! Indiana is good, but not quite the title team from last year. The Hoosiers have two one-score scares from Nebraska and Northwestern. On the flip side, the Buckeyes don’t have that 24-team playoff yet and a second loss would put them in a difficult position. There’s a sense of urgency for Ohio State. Statistically, turnover margin and sacks allowed are similar. Both teams rank in the top 20 in run defense and the top 15 in scoring offense. But it’s Ohio State’s pass defense that ranks in the top ten (150.7 ypg) and has allowed just 2 TD’s through the air in six games. This will be hard fought, but Ohio State covers.

$40: Carolina Panthers (+0.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

“I feel like garbage / I feel like / My systems are operating at twenty percent” – Twenty One Pilots, “Garbage”

I pounced on this prior to the Jalen Hurts news. Hurts (blood clot) is out. Saquon Barkley (hamstring) is trending to be out. DeVonta Smith, too. Philly is down their top three backs. The line is depleted. Their systems “are operating at twenty percent”. RB Dameon Pierce is the guy. QB Tanner McKee is also the guy, making his third career start. Philly fans have been hating on Nick Sirianni for weeks. But the Eagles DO have home field. Carolina DOES rank 29th in total defense, allowing 387.3 ypg. So, there’s hope for the glass is half full fan. Yeah, probably not many of those in Philadelphia, huh? Still, this is enticing on paper. So, of course the Eagles are going to win, right? Eh, I’m rolling with it. Panthers win on the road.

$30: Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5)

“I don’t want anyone, know me or not / See me at my lowest, you don’t have to drop, drop, drop” – Twenty One Pilots, “At The Risk Of Feeling Dumb”

Jayden Daniels played smart last week… until OT. Talk about the lowest of lows! So what Commanders team shows up after that? The backs are beat up – who will start? The NFC East remains winnable, even at 1-3-1. But this is a cross-country trip to face the undefeated 49ers on Monday night. A Niners team that scored 32 points against the league’s top defense heading into the week (Seattle: 251.2 ypg allowed). The same 49ers team that ranks in the top ten in offense and defense. Washington is abysmal when it comes to red zone defense, while the Niners are the opposite when it comes to red zone offense. This game is two teams headed in opposite directions. 49ers cover at home.

$20: Buffalo Bills (-4.5) at Las Vegas Raiders

“Don’t sleep on a boy who can’t fall asleep twice” – Twenty One Pilots, “Overcompensate”

Don’t sleep on Josh Allen. No one likely is. I’m all in on the Bills QB and the season he’s having. Allen makes clutch play after clutch play. The Raiders pushed the undefeated Chiefs to the edge when playing at home. It’s not always pretty with Kirk Cousins, but give the guy credit. You just never know when he’ll go off for 400 yards. And yeah, yeah.. we like that. When it comes to total defense, the Bills rank 30th in the NFL and the Raiders are 27th. The two defenses combine to allow 765.6 yards per game. So, expect fireworks? One would think so. And when I’m looking at a stat like that, I tend to hone in on the best player on the field – and that’s Josh Allen. The cream always rises to the top. Bills cover on the road.

$10: Penn State Nittany Lions (+7) at Michigan Wolverines

“Can’t change what you’ve done / Start fresh next semester” – Twenty One Pilots, “Next Semester”

Desperate times for both teams! Michigan ranks 116th in passing offense, while the Nittany Lions are 6th in pass defense (149.8 ypg allowed). Penn State’s defense has as many picks (5) as TD’s allowed. Bryce Underwood could struggle. In the run game, PSU’s defense has struggled at times, while it’s O-line has failed to open holes. Michigan ranks 16th in run defense, so expect more struggles. The Wolverines rank 98th in rushing offense. Will Jordan Marshall find consistency? How about turnover margin? The Wolverines rank 122nd, while Penn State is 19th. This will be key to the game. The only team Michigan dominated this season was UTEP. This should be close. Give me Penn State and the points.

On the Outside Looking In (Others I Considered):

  • Northwestern Wildcats (-7) at Michigan State Spartans – Chip Kelly, but too many in game vendettas
  • Missouri Tigers (+5.5) at Ole Miss Rebels – Feels like a good bet, but these SEC matchups always burn me
  • Mississippi State Bulldogs (+16.5) at LSU Tigers – MSU QB Kamario Taylor’s status is uncertain, so it’s risky
  • Wisconsin Badgers at UCLA Bruins (-2.5) – How will Bruins play now that QB Nico Iamaleava is out?
  • Wake Forest Demon Deacons at California Golden Bears (+10) – Cal shocked the Hokies last week
  • Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-10) at BYU Cougars – Would BYU use ND bailing on Pop-Tarts Bowl as fuel?
  • Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+10.5) at Virginia Tech Hokies – Franklin no longer guarantee when favored
  • Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) – Last five games finished at a TD or less; Texans won 3 of 4
  • Baltimore Ravens (-4) at Cleveland Browns – Is Lamar playing? Update: Looks like he’s out.
  • Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-6.5) – Colts won 6 in a row in series; 3 of TEN’s losses by 6 or less

 

Week 6 Football Betting Picks: SportsChump

$50 on Tennessee Titans (total points scored over 18 ½)

Sometimes, when game lines don’t speak to you, it helps us to read between them to find an edge.  I think I found one in Titans-Colts.  The Colts rank bottom six in passing yards allowed per game, rushing yards allowed per game and total yards allowed per game.  The only offenses they’ve been able to somewhat contain were a struggling Texans team, who still scored 17 and a Commanders offense with Athan Kaliakmanis at quarterback. While Titans’ quarterback Cam Ward is admittedly having a difficult time in his second season, 24th in the league in passing yards, he’s also 14th in pass attempts, which means one of two things, if not both:  a) the Titans still want him passing the ball and/or b) they’re behind in many of their games so he has to.  Either way, the Colts are seven-point home favorites in a game they’re supposed to win against a divisional rival.

The Titans are the lowest scoring team in the league, posting an embarrassingly low 11.6 ppg.  Tennessee’s offense is so bad that they’re scoring two whole points a game less than the Miami Dolphins.  They’ve also played five difficult games.  There’s a reason Tennessee’s projected 18 ½ points scored is an entire touchdown higher than their scoring average on the season. That’s because they’re daring you to play it.  At 0-5, the Titans are getting desperately close to saying fuck it, punting on the season and wondering whether Cam Ward is their man.  Laying it all out on the line this Sunday, I have faith that Ward might sprinkle enough light into the Titans’ offense to make them deliberate that decision for another week.  Boldly going where no man has gone before, I like the Titans to make us all scratch our heads and score over their projected total of 18 ½.

$40 on New Orleans Saints at New York Giants (+2)

I’m not exactly sure why the Saints are favored in this game.  If the Giants, who currently lead the NFC East (3-1-1) have proven anything, it’s that with Jameis Winston, they’re in every game.  Winston might be 30th in the league in completion percentage but that won’t stop him from dropping back and firing away with the game on the line.  Malik Nabors is a big play waiting to happen, and Cam Skattebo is a battering ram of a running back.  The Saints, on the other hand, are potentially the worst team in football’s worst division.  This has trap line written all over it, but I still think we’re paying too much credence to the fact that the Saints beat Baltimore and almost beat Detroit. 

New Orleans was downright abysmal against the Vikings, who tend to make bad teams look worse.  Furthermore, they’re on the third string running back.  Meanwhile, the Giants, who are undefeated at home, have scored 63 points in their last two games.  The Saints are allowing the second most points in the league (30.2) and the Giants albeit inconsistent offense should be able to take advantage of this.  Vegas likes them to put up 24 and so do I.  John Harbaugh will simplify New York’s offense this week, as much as that is possible with a pass-happy Jameis Winston behind center.  Giants plus the deuce at home in what should be another entertaining contest.

$30 on Cam Skattebo (Over 14 ½ rushing attempts)

In keeping with the above theme, and since the same logic did me well last week combining Aaron Rodgers’ over 225 passing yards with the Colts/Steelers over (both hit), I’m going with Cam Skattebo’s total rushing attempts over 14 ½.  Even with the Saints keying on Skattebo, who has twice as many carries as the next Giants back, Cam should still be able to wear down a Saints defense that ranks second to last in rushing yards allowed.  If you’re feeling frisky and believe in this logic, there’s also money to be made on Skattebo over 100 rushing yards (+400) which would be his first career 100-yard rushing game and two plus touchdowns (+475).  If you’d like to keep it simple, take Skattebo’s over rushing attempts and/or his anytime touchdown prop at -105.

$20 on Josh Allen (over 33 ½ rushing yards)

Speaking of being bad at defending the run, meet your 2026 Las Vegas Raiders.  I called their blowout loss at New England last week.  One need only look at who their first three wins were against to realize a trip to Foxborough would go badly for them.  Next up, that other AFC East behemoth, led by the most dangerous quarterback in the league.  I sense this is another trap line considering Josh Allen was picking up 33 yards a clip Monday night against the Rams.  The guy finished with 121 yards on 10 carries!  Will the Raiders game plan for that?  Sure.  Will the Bills try to ensure their quarterback/MVP candidate does not put himself in harm’s way?  Of course.  Will it matter?  No.  Josh Allen is going to do Josh Allen things.  He’s averaging almost six yards a carry and almost fifty yards a game.  Master of the collapsing pocket, Allen will be running more in Vegas than me towards a $5 blackjack table at Harrah’s.  33 ½ yards on the ground seems light to me so I’ll gladly take the over.

$10 on Tampa Bay Rays (+140) over Cleveland Guardians in ALCS

I just wrote The Iliad so call me a homer.  I’m pulling for the Rays.  Tampa Bay made a mockery of the New York Yankees, then got grounded by a hot Cleveland Guardians team in Game One of the ALCS.  Cleveland came into the Trop and extended their hotness from the previous series against Chicago. The Guardians were quickly cooled off in Game Two by Freddy Peralta, who only allowed four hits and struck out six through six.  Despite a Game Three loss, in keeping with my “Rays are a team of destiny sentiment (and hope),” I’m taking them to win the ALCS as my final pick of the week.  Go Rays!

Last Week’s Recap

  • $50: Ball State Cardinals at Northwestern Wildcats (-34.5) – INCORRECT
  • $40: Maryland Terrapins at Ohio State Buckeyes (-34.5) – INCORRECT
  • $30: Minnesota Golden Gophers (-2.5) at Purdue Boilermakers – INCORRECT
  • $20: Chicago Bears (-2.5) at Green Bay Packers – INCORRECT
  • $10: Cleveland Browns (+2.5) at New York Jets – INCORRECT

Season Stats for Kevin Paul at TWHS (Top Five Only)

  • NFL: 2-8 (-$180)
  • CFB: 7-8 (-$110)
  • Overall: 9-16 (-$290)

Season Stats for Kevin Paul at TWHS (By Confidence)

  • $50: 1-4
  • $40: 2-3
  • $30: 1-4
  • $20: 2-3
  • $10: 3-2

Week-by-Week for Kevin Paul and TWHS (Top Five Only)

  • Week 01: NFL: 1-1 (-$20) | CFB 2-1 (-$10) | Week: 3-2 (-$30) | Overall: 3-2 (-$30)
  • Week 02: NFL: 0-2 (-$80) | CFB 2-1 ($30) | Week: 2-3 (-$50) | Overall: 5-5 (-$80)
  • Week 03: NFL: 1-1 ($30) | CFB 2-1 ($20) | Week: 3-2 ($50) | Overall: 8-7 (-$30)
  • Week 04: NFL: 0-2 (-$80) | CFB 1-2 (-$30) | Week: 1-4 (-$110) | Overall: 9-11 (-$140)
  • Week 05: NFL: 0-2 (-$30) | CFB 0-3 (-$120) | Week: 0-5 (-$150) | Overall: 9-16 (-$290)

 

Image Credit: Twenty One Pilots

Chime in with your top picks for the week. Thank you for visiting The Wife Hates/Loves Sports!

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