That fall feeling. I’m not talking picks, as in the rise and fall of my results. Last week was a rise (thankfully). I’m actually talking fall, as in autumn. This is one of the best times of the year, if not the best. The Fall Classic, a.k.a. the World Series has begun. College Football and the NFL are fully entrenched in their seasons. The NHL and NBA seasons have also kicked off. The weather is cooling off and the leaves are changing. Pumpkin spice fills the air – ok, maybe not pumpkin spice, although I do enjoy the pumpkin coffee that Trader Joe’s produces. Do I smell an endorsement?! Anyway, it’s time for our Week 7 Football Betting Picks, where I’m not only selecting with the SportsChump, but also one of my other closest friends in sports, the great and wonderful Lisa Horne. She’s on a cruise this week and still was willing to text her picks through rough seas. What a pro!

Speaking of the Fall Classic, who you got – Brewers or Rays? Our buddy the SportsChump has the Rays. He’s a Tampa Bay guy. On my end, it’s the Brewers. I have so much family from Wisconsin. What’s up, fam? Let’s go Brew Crew! Have some cheese curds for me.

So, as you’ve noticed, there is no specific theme for the week – only that “IT’S FALL Y’ALL!”, as they say in the south. I’ll come back next week with something tied to Halloween in some way, shape, or form. That and THE WIFE will be picking, so that should be fun. It’ll be a trick… or a treat.

Contest Reminder

This is a season long contest with potential prizes going out to our winners, so if you want to join in on the fun, drop a comment here or over at the land of the SportsChump.  We take our top five bets of the week against the spread (in both the NFL and College Football). If you beat us and go undefeated, that leads to fun prizes and/or heaps of praise on our websites.

With that said, here are our TOP FIVE picks for the week, including my Week 7 Football Betting Picks. The list is ranked in order of confidence, from 50 “dollars” down to $10.

Week 7 Football Betting Picks – FALL Y’ALL Edition

KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates/Loves Sports

$50: Boise State Broncos (-13) at Washington State Cougars

This went from off my list to my top selection. Call it a gut feeling (or maybe it was heartburn). Let’s check some stats to be safe. First off, Wazzu (1-6) is terrible. Washington State’s only win came against Duquesne at home and five of their six losses are by double digits. Boise State’s pass defense ranks 126th in CFB, allowing 261.3 ypg. In comparison, Washington State’s passing offense ranks 119th (177.6 ypg). That same unit has more INT’s (6) than passing TD’s (5) through seven games. The Broncos took a healthier Oregon team to the wire back in September. Overall, this Boise State team is much more talented. Catching the line under two TD’s makes it a good bet, even on the road. Boise State covers.

$40: BYU Cougars (-6.5) at UCF Knights

This feels like a trap game, but I’m here for it. Look, BYU isn’t the 2nd best team in the country. The Cougars had a nice win against Notre Dame, but this ranking is more tied to the SEC and Big Ten powers falling in recent weeks. Still, BYU has some key pieces, and they can score, but a certain pressure comes with being ranked this high in the polls. BYU QB Bear Bachmeier can beat you with his arm or his legs (1,257 passing yards, 284 rushing yards, 15 total TD). UCF’s pass defense ranks 104th in yards allowed, but they have more INT’s (6) than TD’s allowed (5). The Cougars rank in the top ten in rushing defense, so UCF may be forced to win this game through the air. In the end, BYU covers on the road.

$30: San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel are confirmed out for the 49ers. San Francisco has dealt with injuries all season, as many teams have. Yet, they remain undefeated. Playing on short rest, I’m still not deterred. The Commanders made a late charge last week. Yet, I’m still not deterred. If not for some of the key offensive injuries, this would have been my top pick. When it comes to Atlanta, the Falcons need big numbers from RB Bijan Robinson to have success. In Atlanta’s two wins, Robinson has averaged 24 carries and 169.5 yards rushing. For Atlanta’s four losses, Robinson has averaged under 16 carries and around 75 yards rushing. San Francisco has a run defense that ranks in the top ten. 49ers cover on the road.

$20: New York Giants (+10.5) at Houston Texans

J.J. McCarthy gets the start for the Giants. Sometimes, a change of scenery is all a person needs. McCarthy nearly led a monstrous comeback against the Saints last week. He entered in the 4th quarter and eventually threw for 243 yards and ran for 26. He’ll need to be that effective, as the Giants have been questionable in the run game in recent weeks. On the flip side, the Texans are turning their season around. Additional offensive weapons have been added in recent weeks (Marvin Harrison Jr. via trade, Tank Dell back from injury). Again, this comes down to McCarthy protecting the football – and the Texans have just six takeaways in six games. Give me the Giants and the points on the road.

$10: Green Bay Packers (+3.5) at Detroit Lions

The Packers have won three of five in the series, including both games last season. Jordan Love has had a strong season (4 of 6 games over 275 yards passing) and has been key to Green Bay’s three-game win streak. Packers RB Josh Jacobs is set to return and would add a needed boost – albeit a controversial one – to a run game that ranks last in the NFL. Detroit ranks dead last in total defense (404.4 ypg allowed). With more offensive balance, the Packers should have no problem moving the ball. Expect a shootout, especially with all the weapons the Lions also have. Game of the week? Maybe. Either way, give me the Packers and the points on the road.

 

On the Outside Looking In (Others I Considered):

  • Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan Wolverines (+7.5) – Tommy Carr starting over Underwood
  • Pittsburgh Panthers at Miami Hurricanes (-19.5) – ‘Canes squeaked by rival ‘Noles last week
  • Oregon Ducks (-8.5) at Illinois Fighting Illini – Ducks have a lot of injuries on offense, but more talent
  • Sacramento State Hornets at Ball State Cardinals (-14) – Everyone raving about the BALL-SAC game!
  • Tennessee Volunteers (+2.5) at South Carolina Gamecocks – What am I missing here?
  • Michigan State Spartans (+15) at UCLA Bruins – Nico Iamaleava out, but Sparty outscored 58-13 on road
  • Oklahoma Sooners (-3) at Mississippi State Bulldogs – Kamario Taylor is questionable, expected to play
  • Texas A&M Aggies (+14) at Alabama Crimson Tide – How will Tide respond following loss to Georgia?
  • Virginia Tech Hokies at Clemson Tigers (-2.5) – Marquee coaching matchup that isn’t actually one
  • Ole Miss Rebels (+3.5) at Texas Longhorns – How will an “edgy” version of Arch Manning perform?
  • Houston Cougars (+7) at Utah Utes – Both teams are ranked in the Top 15
  • Cleveland Browns (-1.5) at Tennessee Titans – How will Titans respond after getting first win?
  • Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-1) – Down from -2.5, Lamar Jackson is listed as questionable

 

Week 7 Football Betting Picks: SportsChump

$50 on Cincinnati Bengals/Baltimore Ravens (Over 49)

Sometimes, what I’ll do, when I’m searching for an over/under to play is look at team stats.  Who’s allowing chunks of yards per game, both on the ground and through the air?  Who’s allowing too many points, etc.?  That approach did me no good whatsoever in this Bengals-Ravens matchup.  The Bengals are coming off a bye, and the Ravens finally return Lamar Jackson (we think) for what is one of the NFL’s most exciting modern rivalries.  The intimidating Derrick Henry has been having problems holding on to the football, which isn’t surprising considering how much they rely on him offensively.  In looking at the Ravens and Bengals’ defenses, nothing stood out.  These two teams are better defensively than expected, especially Cincinnati whose defense has been traditionally porous. 

These two teams split their matchups last year with each team winning on the road.  Their most recent matchup last year, the Ravens blanked the Bengals 24-0, which doesn’t give me a warm and fuzzy when choosing the over, BUT their previous five matchups were all high-scoring affairs.  As improved as these defenses are, when Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson take the field, it’s just too tempting not to root for points.  Both these offenses are in the top ten in points scored per game.  The over/under opened at 49 and is already at 51 on some services which means people are thinking like I am, which is scary.  Like you, I’m expecting a shootout. Bengals/Ravens over 49.  (Note: I also like Bengals total points over.  Don’t think for one second they don’t recall the goose egg they put up last year.)

$40 on Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks (-2)

The Seahawks aren’t looking very “Seahawky” these days.  The defending Super Bowl champions sure do miss their running back.  Fortunately, they won’t have to send him a postcard since he returns to Seattle this weekend.  Kenneth Walker is currently the leading candidate for offensive player of the year.  He now plays for the visiting Kansas City Chiefs.  The Chiefs are once again doing Chief-like things with the incomparable Pat Mahomes healthy and leading his team to a (so far) undefeated season.  Sunday night, they travel to the home of the 12th man and what one should think will be a physical contest.  Because of their recent offensive struggles, the defending champs are only 2-point favorites in what should be a brilliantly played game where mistakes are magnified. 

The over/under is low (42) which means they don’t expect much scoring, which favors Seattle.  Sam Darnold has been turning the ball over more than Bumpy Johnson giving away turkeys on Thanksgiving.  It doesn’t help matters that, sans Kenneth Walker, they can’t run the football effectively.  One thing they can do, however, is defend against the run.  Seattle has allowed the fewest yards per game so far this season.  I’m usually big on revenge games but eleven against one might be too tall a task, even for last year’s Super Bowl MVP.  Players may be all hugs and handshakes pregame but once that whistle blows, Seattle’s defense is going to make things very difficult for Walker.  He’ll get his but not enough to bring KC a win.  Seattle at home minus the two to give the Chiefs their first loss of the season.

$30 on Brock Bowers Any Time Touchdown

I received a text this week that read “Sunday is National Tight Ends Day.  Wager accordingly.”  National Tight Ends Day is like a gambler’s gift from the gods, a ton of free plays with which to round robin every competent tight end to score an any time touchdown.  I’m going to choose one for you this week, and I’m going with a) one of the best in the league who b) receives passes from a veteran quarterback who is probably aware of the importance of getting his tight end the ball, not only this Sunday but every Sunday.  Brock Bowers is second in tight end targets to only Trey McBride.  In two fewer games, Bowers has as many receiving touchdowns as McBride.  The books are aware it’s National Tight Ends Day so their numbers will be skewed lower than normal but there is still money to be made.  Bowers anytime touchdown comes back +110 so I’ll jump on it for one of the best tight ends in the league to reach paydirt.

$20 on Miami Dolphins (Total Points Scored Over 16 ½)

I’m about to say something you haven’t heard anybody say yet this season.  The Miami Dolphins have been surprisingly competitive.  So far, they’ve played five potential playoff teams: Vegas, Niners, Chiefs, Vikings and Bengals.  Those teams have a combined record of 22-5!  Now, nobody expected the Dolphins to be worth a damn but at least they’re not tanking.  They haven’t been able to do too much offensively although two weeks ago before their bye, they put up 24 against Cincinnati, which isn’t all that tough a task.  This Sunday, the still winless Dolphins will travel to New York to play the Jets, who are also surprisingly competitive, I mean, for the Jets. 

The over/under is low but we’re running out of games for these Dolphins to win.  After the Jets, you’re looking at three more weeks until the Dolphins face a team they can beat (Colts).  I’m not sure the Fish win this game (I’ll undoubtedly be playing them money line anyway) but I do like them to leave it all out on the field.  In the absence of De’Von Achane, Ollie Gordon has been fun to watch, scoring a touchdown in his last three games.  I look for more of the same against New York who is middle of the road in defending the run. I like Ollie for an any time (+195) and the Dolphins to exceed their total points scored of 16 ½.

$10 on Baylor Bears (-2) at Kansas Jayhawks

I haven’t watched a minute of Kansas football this season.  I have better things to do with my time.  They have yet to tally a conference win and their only two wins coming against Long Island University and Middle Tennessee.  In other words, when they play a real team, they don’t stand much of a chance.  In comes Baylor this week who got tripped up last week against TCU, who is allowing the third fewest points per game in the nation.  If you went to Florida, you’re familiar with DJ Lagway’s work against stout defenses.  It’s not pretty.  Kansas doesn’t have one of those and the Baylor Bears will have spent all week wondering what could have been.  The Bears are also one of the nation’s top teams when it comes to points allowed (14.7).  Kansas can move the ball.  Sophomore quarterback Isaiah Marshall is a dual threat, but Baylor has played better against better talent and has the better resume.  I’ll take Baylor to rebound and cover the 2 ½ points on the road.

 

Week 7 Football Betting Picks: Special Guest Lisa Horne

$50: BYU -6.5 at UCF

The Mormons will be on a “mission” after beating ND last week. they may be a tad hungover, but should cover after a shaky start

$40: NC State -7.5 at Stanford

This pick is not so much having faith with NC State. It’s an indictment on how unwatchable Cardinal football is right now.

$30: New Mexico +4.5 vs North Dakota State

The Lobos are impressive. And although it’s tough to pick them straight up, the game should be close enough to take the points.

$20: Miami -20.5 at Pitt

This is one of those games that screams “upset”. But the Canes are on a roll and I think they cover by at least three TD’s in a very important game.

$10: USC -3.5 at Wisconsin

Full disclosure: this is a homer pick. I’m a Trojan. Bonus: at this point in the season, Lincoln Riley needs to prove he’s worth (allegedly) $70 million.

 

Last Week’s Recap

  • $50: Ohio State Buckeyes (-3.5) at Indiana Hoosiers – CORRECT
  • $40: Carolina Panthers (+0.5) at Philadelphia Eagles – CORRECT
  • $30: Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) – INCORRECT
  • $20: Buffalo Bills (-4.5) at Las Vegas Raiders – INCORRECT
  • $10: Penn State Nittany Lions (+7) at Michigan Wolverines – CORRECT

Season Stats for Kevin Paul at TWHS (Top Five Only)

  • NFL: 3-9 (-$190)
  • CFB: 9-8 (-$50)
  • Overall: 12-16 (-$240)

Season Stats for Kevin Paul at TWHS (By Confidence)

  • $50: 2-4
  • $40: 3-3
  • $30: 1-5
  • $20: 2-4
  • $10: 4-2

Week-by-Week for Kevin Paul and TWHS (Top Five Only)

  • Week 01: NFL: 1-1 (-$20) | CFB 2-1 (-$10) | Week: 3-2 (-$30) | Overall: 3-2 (-$30)
  • Week 02: NFL: 0-2 (-$80) | CFB 2-1 ($30) | Week: 2-3 (-$50) | Overall: 5-5 (-$80)
  • Week 03: NFL: 1-1 ($30) | CFB 2-1 ($20) | Week: 3-2 ($50) | Overall: 8-7 (-$30)
  • Week 04: NFL: 0-2 (-$80) | CFB 1-2 (-$30) | Week: 1-4 (-$110) | Overall: 9-11 (-$140)
  • Week 05: NFL: 0-2 (-$30) | CFB 0-3 (-$120) | Week: 0-5 (-$150) | Overall: 9-14 (-$290)
  • Week 06: NFL: 1-2 (-$10) | CFB 2-0 ($60) | Week: 3-2 ($50) | Overall: 12-16 (-$240)

Chime in with your top picks for the week. Thank you for visiting The Wife Hates/Loves Sports!

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