I’m somewhere stuck in between a new youth baseball season, an ongoing basketball season, holiday shopping, school band concerts, refreshing my phone with Penn State Football news, and brutally mediocre football picks. While I process all of that and decide how to unwrap it into a series of posts at this site, I’m going to push that pile of words aside and move forward with what will hopefully be a better block of football prognostication. To be honest, it can’t get much worse than this – at least when it comes to football picks. The other stuff is going swimmingly. Does anyone even use the word “swimmingly” anymore? I digress. Let’s move forward with our Week 14 Football Picks and Top Bets.

Our special guest this week is Brother Bill. Welcome, Brother!

Contest Reminder

This is a season long contest with potential prizes going out to our winners, so if you want to join in on the fun, drop a comment here or over at the land of the SportsChump.  We take our top five games of the week against the spread. If you beat us and go undefeated, that leads to fun prizes and heaps of praise on our websites.

With that said, here are our TOP FIVE Best Bets for the week, including my Week 14 Football Picks and Top Bets. The list is ranked in order of confidence, from 50 “dollars” down to $10.

Week 14 Football Picks and Top Bets – The Many Things Edition

KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports

$50: Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) at Atlanta Falcons

I’m scared to look back at my record picking the Falcons this year. Especially considering I have them in the top slot this week. My original list didn’t even include this game. It was a late addition. Why? Well, the Seahawks are quite explosive. This is just a group that has been a bit inconsistent in recent weeks. Hence, the original hesitation. However, Atlanta is highly dependent on Bijan Robinson to provide offensive balance. Seattle’s defense ranks second against the run (88.8 ypg allowed). Overall, the Seahawks rank 6th in total defense. Atlanta also will be without Drake London. The more I write about the game, the more comfortable I am. Seahawks cover on the road.

$40: Indiana Hoosiers vs Ohio State Buckeyes (-3.5)

Curt Cignetti is the real deal and so is Indiana. Still, this Ohio State team has no flaws. The Buckeyes can beat you in so many ways. OSU’s defense ranks 1st in CFB, allowing just 203.0 ypg. That’s 44 yards fewer than the 2nd place team. Indiana does rank 5th. This OSU team is “Wide Receiver U” – at least for now (Brian Hartline is moving on). Julian Sayin (3,065 yards, 30 TD, 5 INT) completed more than 70% of his passes in three of four games against ranked teams. Indiana escaped Penn State a few weeks back. The Hoosiers needed a few incredible catches and a few lucky breaks to remain undefeated. Indiana is damn good, but Ohio State is better. Buckeyes cover in the Big Ten Championship.

$30: Duke Blue Devils vs Virginia Cavaliers (-2.5)

Manny Diaz is a defensive mastermind and likely has a better plan for the Cavs. But does he have enough talent, considering the Blue Devils rank 111th in CFB in total defense? A few weeks back, Virginia doubled up on Duke, 34-17. There’s obviously much more at stake in this game. Virginia ranks 26th in total offense and statistically has the edge on paper. It’s always tough to beat a team more than once in the same season, but we are talking about a field goal. Cavaliers cover in the ACC Championship.

$20: Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (-5)

The Bengals can score. Joe Burrow played well in his return, a 32-17 win over the Ravens. My concern isn’t with Cincinnati’s offense, but more so its defense that ranks last in the NFL, allowing 410.0 yards per game. The Bengals are the only team to allow more than 400 yards per game. Now, the Bengals face Josh Allen and the Bills on the road. While Buffalo has been quite inconsistent (and also quite disappointing), this is still a team that can score in bunches, especially against a weaker defense. We are into the time of year when checking the weather is smart. There is a chance for snow showers, but it doesn’t look like it will result in a major impact. Bills cover at home.

$10: Chicago Bears (+7) at Green Bay Packers

The first place Bears. Let me write that again. The first place Bears. Who knew Ben Johnson would have this much success so quickly? OK, potentially a lot of you. Chicago broke its 11-game losing streak to Green Bay back in January. The weather is set to be 18 degrees and clear at kickoff. Frozen tundra time. Chicago leads the NFL in turnover margin (+17). In fact, the second best team is a +9. The Bears have twenty-six takeaways on the season, while the Packers have just 11. Talk about a fun game and a likely close one at that. Therefore, give me the Bears and the points on the road.

 

On the Outside Looking In (Others I Considered – A Thanksgiving-Sized Portion):

  • Miami Dolphins (-2.5) at New York Jets – Jets burned me last week
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (+6) at Baltimore Ravens – Lamar Jackson expected to start, but how healthy is he?
  • Tennessee Titans (+4.5) at Cleveland Browns – As I said last week, Browns step up on D at home
  • Denver Broncos (-7) at Las Vegas Raiders – One month ago, it was a three-point game
  • Los Angeles Rams (-8.5) at Arizona Cardinals – Rams should win, but will they cruise on the road?

 

Week 14 Football Picks: SportsChump

$50 on New Orleans Saint at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Over 42)

The Bucs are back to scoring.  And thank goodness.  Between Chris Godwin’s slow return, Mike Evans’ concussed collar bone and Bucky Irving’s far too long absence, Baker Mayfield has been doing the bulk of the heavy lifting.  Fortunately, he has young buck Egbuka to help him out.  You know things are bad when you’re resorting to your best offensive lineman to haul in touchdowns.  Things appear to be somewhat back to normal for the Buccaneers.  This week, they look to keep their distance from the Panthers who, like any pesky house pet, are sniffing the Buccaneers’ behinds.  Scoring, when healthy, has not been a problem for Tampa Bay. 

New Orleans is still kicking the tires on Tyler Shough, who has started looking a little more comfortable behind center.  He threw two touchdowns on the road against Carolina and another two last week in Miami, two teams that have been playing better of late.  Tampa’s secondary, while ball hawkin’, is still prone to giving up big plays.  This over/under is relatively low, largely because of Alvin Kamara’s health but I still see plenty of reasons for this game to go over 42, mainly the Bucs scoring and their inability to give up occasional chunks of yardage.

$40 on Indiana Hoosiers at Ohio State Buckeyes (-3 ½)

I have this one friend on our gambling thread who, since the conference championship games were slotted, texts hourly in disbelief that the Buckeyes are only 3 ½ point favorites against Indiana.  Indiana is the surprise story of this year’s college football season.  At no point in my lifetime can I remember when the Hoosiers fielded a competitive football team, never mind an undefeated one, yet here they are with a Heisman hopeful and a 12-0 record.  Their prize for such an accomplishment is to face traditional Big Ten powerhouse Ohio State in their conference championship game.  You might as well have wished for heartburn for Christmas.  The Hoosiers season has been memorable, dreamy even. 

They made a believer out of me when they went to Oregon and won.  They also destroyed Illinois and won at both Iowa and Penn State.  But Ohio State does that before they’ve had their morning coffee.  This game will be played in Indianapolis but before you go thinking IU will have the advantage because they’re playing in their home state, clearly you don’t understand the fact that Buckeye fans inhabit this nation like termites do an old wooden house.  I’m not saying Ohio State is about to run the table.  If they’re going to lose a game, they better get it out of their system now before elimination starts but 3 ½ is just too small a number for me when talking about the size and consistency of these two programs.  Ohio State minus 3 ½ against anyone is normally the safe play so I’ll do that this weekend.  Buckeyes cover.

$30 on Duke Blue Devils at Virginia Cavaliers (-3 ½)

Does anyone here understand what the hell is going on in the ACC?  I’m not even talking about the fact that SMU, Cal and Stanford are part of the conference.  Last time I checked none of these three schools were on the Atlantic Coast.  What we have here is failure to communicate.  But it gets trickier.  The two schools playing in the ACC Championship Game, Virginia and Duke, are not as highly rated as what most believe to be the best team in the conference, which is Miami.  If I were to ask you if the winner of this game gets an automatic big into college football’s final 12, would you know the answer to that question without having to look it up?  The answer is no, or at least I don’t think so, which means college football’s postseason construction is stuck in a limbo status, a non-sensible mix between college basketball postseason and absolute chaos. 

If you root for chaos, then root for Duke because that means that the ACC would likely not have a single representative in the postseason.  Because there are 17 friggin’ teams in the conference, there is good likelihood that many of them never meet, which is what happened to 12th ranked Miami.  The Hurricanes played neither team currently playing for the ACC title.  My head hurts but I can assure you I had nothing to do with the current clusterfuck that is the ACC.  Bottom line is, Virginia is the better team on paper and probably so on the field.  Those in the stands rooting for chaos might get it but these things have a way of evening out.  The game is in North Carolina, but the line is small.  I’ll take the Cavs to cover the 3 ½ based on the stats I’ve seen (better defense, fewer penalties, higher time of possession) but if chaos ensues, at least I’ll be laughing along with the rest of us as Rome burns.

$20 on Minnesota Vikings (First Possession Punt)

Let’s have a little fun, shall we?  Since the purpose of this entire exercise is to talk about gambling and different ways to do so, it’s important to remind our readers that you don’t always have to bet point spreads.  I’ve done best this season betting over/unders, team over/unders and any time touchdown props.  Last week, I discovered you can bet on first drive outcomes.  I’ve even hit a few.  For example, if a team’s offense is lousy (Hear me, Tennessee Titans and Las Vegas Raiders?), why not bet their first drive outcome to result in a punt if the return doesn’t carry much juice?  This week, I looked at the league’s worst offenses, Tennessee, Las Vegas and Minnesota (with their third string quarterback). 

As it turns out, JJ McCarthy will return after his second stint on the sidelines but it’s very possible that a) this kid’s confidence is shattered and b) Kevin O’Connell will tone down his defense so that McCarthy doesn’t put himself in more bad positions.  The four possible outcomes of the Vikings first drive on my site pay out as follows: Field Goal Attempt +325, Punt -110, Touchdown +375, Turnover +525).  It’s highly possible that O’Connell lets his kid wing it around the yard but it’s far more likely that they ease into things offensively, especially with Dan Quinn on the opposite sidelines waiting to give McCarthy every reason to lose more confidence.  Since most lines and games that we wager on have the -110 juice, I’m opting for a first possession punt for the Minnesota Vikings, hoping they stay conservative on their opening drive and wait until their second until they open things up.

$10 on Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (Under 53 ½)

After watching the return of Joe Burrow, seeing how they were still technically alive to make the post-season and recognizing their next opponent was Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills, my immediate thought was bet this game over.  Way over.  Then I looked up the weather.  Mid December, Buffalo, Sunday will bring the kind of weather few Americans are built for.  29 degrees.  Snow.  In other words, cold as shit.  As talented as these two quarterbacks are, this is not air-it-out weather.  I say let that number climb as the limbs get number.  Since when is an over/under twenty points higher than the predicted temperature. 

I don’t know if you saw what Buffalo did to Pittsburgh last week, but they absolutely manhandled the Steelers.  Aaron Rodgers had blood pouring down his beak and Mike Tomlin was openly booed, which sounds about right for Pittsburgh fans.  In other words, the Bills out-Steelered the Steelers.  If they bring that sort of intensity this Sunday, Burrow’s frozen toe might be in trouble.  I’d love nothing more than to see the Bengals make a late run.  But I’m just not sure how either team will be able to put up a bunch of points in that weather.  I see lots of snow and this game going under 53 ½.

Week 14 Football Picks: Special Guest – Brother Bill

$50 – Big Ten Championship,  Ohio State minus 4.5 vs. Indiana. This is a homer pick.  I’m an Ohio State alumnus, so give me the Buckeyes minus 4.5.

$40 – ACC Championship, Virginia minus 4.5 vs. Duke.  Strange conference.  Duke is 7-5 and in the championship game.  I’ll take the Cavaliers minus 4.5.

$30- Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns, Total 34.5.  The total is a pretty low number.  I have a hunch that these two bad teams will score on each other.  Give me over 34.5.

$20 – SEC Championship, Georgia minus 2.5 vs. Alabama.  You have to go all the way back to 2013 to find an SEC championship game that didn’t include one of these teams.  I’ll take the Bulldogs minus 2.5.

$10- MAC Championship, Western Michigan minus 2.5 vs. Miami.  This is homer pick #2.  My wife is a Miami alumna, so I’ll take the RedHawks plus 2.5.

Last Week’s Recap

  • $50: Penn State Nittany Lions (-13.5) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights – INCORRECT
  • $40: Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at New York Jets – INCORRECT
  • $30: Oregon Ducks (-6.5) at Washington Huskies – CORRECT
  • $20: UCLA Bruins (+23.5) at USC Trojans – CORRECT
  • $10: Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Wolverines (+10.5) – INCORRECT

Season Stats for Kevin Paul at TWHS (Top Five Only)

  • NFL: 16-17-2 (-$70)
  • CFB: 15-15 (-$70)
  • Overall: 31-32-2 (-$140)

Season Stats for Kevin Paul at TWHS (By Confidence)

  • $50: 6-7
  • $40: 6-7
  • $30: 4-9
  • $20: 8-4-1
  • $10: 7-5-1

Week-by-Week for Kevin Paul and The Wife Hates Sports (Top Five Only)

  • Week 01: NFL: 2-2 ($50) | CFB 1-0 ($20) | Week: 3-2 ($70) | Overall: 3-2 ($70)
  • Week 02: NFL: 2-1 ($40) | CFB 0-2 (-$50) | Week: 2-3 (-$10) | Overall: 5-5 ($60)
  • Week 03: NFL: 1-2 (-$40) | CFB 1-1 (-$10) | Week: 2-3 (-$50) | Overall: 7-8 ($10)
  • Week 04: NFL: 1-1 (-$30) | CFB 2-1 ($0) | Week: 3-2 (-$30) | Overall: 10-10 (-$20)
  • Week 05: NFL: 0-2 (-$70) | CFB 1-2 ($20) | Week: 1-4 (-$50) | Overall: 11-14 (-$70)
  • Week 06: NFL: 1-2 (-$40) | CFB 2-0 ($30) | Week: 3-2 (-$10) | Overall: 14-16 (-$80)
  • Week 07: NFL: 3-0 ($120) | CFB 1-1 (-$10) | Week: 4-1 ($110) | Overall: 18-17 ($30)
  • Week 08: NFL: 1-0 ($50) | CFB 0-4 (-$100) | Week: 1-4 (-$50) | Overall: 19-21 (-$20)
  • Week 09: NFL: 1-3 (-$100) | CFB 1-0 ($10) | Week: 2-3 (-$90) | Overall: 21-24 (-$110)
  • Week 10: NFL: 2-0-1 ($50) | CFB 0-2 (-$80) | Week: 2-2-1 (-$30) | Overall: 23-26-1 (-$140)
  • Week 11: NFL: 1-1-1 ($10) | CFB 2-0 ($70) | Week: 3-1-1 ($80) | Overall: 26-27-2 (-$60)
  • Week 12: NFL: 1-2 (-$70) | CFB 2-0 ($40) | Week: 3-2 (-$30) | Overall: 29-29-2 (-$90)
  • Week 13: NFL: 0-1 (-$40) | CFB 2-2 (-$10) | Week: 2-3 (-$50) | Overall: 31-32-2 (-$140)

 

Chime in with your top picks for the week.  Thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!

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