It started off well. Then it went south… fast. The only logical next step is to go streaking. Not THAT kind of streaking. Not screaming at the top of my lungs in Will Farrell voice type of streaking. As in, going on a winning streak. I mean, this is getting ridiculous. It’s time for an Old School approach. Not old school, as in old school… but Old School as in the movie, “Old School”. Whether you followed that or not, it’s time for our Week 6 Football Picks and Top Bets featuring the SportsChump and a special guest every week.

Quick Warning: The videos to follow (from Old School) contain language and this next one features Will Ferrell’s butt – you’ve been warned!

So whether you think it should instead be a “walk of shame” focus tied to Old School due to recent weekly performances, that’s up to you. I’m sticking to streaking, just not actually streaking. Well, that and any other clip that makes sense in the moment – and there will be more.

After all, I’m a movie quoting machine by nature.

Contest Reminder

This is a season long contest with potential prizes going out to our winners, so if you want to join in on the fun, drop a comment here or over at the land of the SportsChump.  We take our top five games of the week against the spread. If you beat us and go undefeated, that leads to fun prizes and heaps of praise on our websites.

With that said, here are our TOP FIVE Best Bets for the week, including my Week 6 Football Picks and Top Bets. The list is ranked in order of confidence, from 50 “dollars” down to $10.

Week 6 Football Picks and Top Bets – The Old School Edition

KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports

$50: Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Carolina Panthers

Yes, I’m taking the Cowboys with my $50 pick this week – and NO, I don’t have a “blank-ing” dart in my neck. I realize that it is feast or famine with the Cowboys. Just look at the stats. Dallas is #1 in the NFL in total offense (406.6 ypg). Sure, fine… I’ll be thorough. Dallas is also dead last in total defense (412.0 ypg). Again, feast or famine. It’s been a few games, but Carolina is undefeated at home. The weather actually may turn on Sunday, with some wind and rain. Neither team protects the ball all that well (-3 turnover differential for each). I’m more looking to Javonte Williams (5.7 ypc) challenging Carolina’s defense in potentially questionable conditions and with a close line, I’m taking Dallas. Cowboys cover on the road.

$40: New England Patriots (-3.5) at New Orleans Saints

So, wait… I’m taking Dallas and following with the Patriots? Which decade are we in?! To be fair, New England is finding its identity with Mike Vrabel running the show – and that’s not that surprising, to be honest. Weather won’t be an issue (dome). Alvin Kamara is currently in doubt and questionable for the game. Kendre Miller will be ready to go if he can’t play. But this is more about Drake Maye, who has completed nearly 74% of his passes on the season. Meanwhile, New Orleans is in the middle of the pack in total defense and in the bottom five in passer rating allowed. Patriots cover on the road.

And now, a trio of road teams that all feature blue in their uniforms… meaning that this week, the rally cry is going to be, “You’re my boy, Blue!”

$30: Buffalo Bills (-4.5) at Atlanta Falcons

The stats are interesting in this game. Atlanta doesn’t do much for me, yet the Falcons lead the NFL in total defense (244.0 ypg). Sure, then what about rushing offense? Atlanta has Bijan Robinson and the Bills have James Cook and Josh Allen. Both teams rank in the top six in rushing offense, so that will be key to this game. What about opposing QB passer rating? Atlanta’s defense ranks fourth. But wait, who have the Falcons played? The answer is the Bucs, Falcons, Panthers, and Commanders. Ah ha, but Washington started Marcus Mariota. Maybe that explains the skew in the data, because overall, I love Buffalo’s talent and explosiveness much more. Bills cover on the road.

$20: UCLA Bruins (+8.5) at Michigan State Spartans

Sure, I’ll bite. Jerry Neuheisel looks like the kid that shows up at your doorstep to pick up your daughter for Prom – and you quickly slam the door seconds after opening it. Yet, here he is, family pedigree intact and fresh off a 42-point performance against Penn State. Now, we ask ourselves… is UCLA becoming last week’s team or are they more like the team that started 0-4? Who is Nico Iamaleava other than a vowel buyer’s dream on Wheel of Fortune? Nico completed more than 70% of his passes last week and also ran for 128 yards on the ground. That was against a Jim Knowles defense. Meanwhile, Sparty returns home after back-to-back double digit losses to Big Ten opponents on the road (Nebraska and USC). My gut says this will be close. Give me the Bruins and the points on the road.

Alright, “earmuffs”… we are about to talk Penn State Football – no idea where this could go.

$10: Northwestern Wildcats (+21.5) at Penn State Nittany Lions

I have a better chance covering myself in a Bounty paper towel than Penn State does at covering in a game. That’s how I feel about my alma mater currently. The Nittany Lions follow up last week’s travesty at UCLA by returning home to what is likely to be a very feisty and frustrated fan base. This should be a blowout, but will it be? Penn State’s offense looks lost. Press conferences seem to indicate minimal changes at key positions such as WR, LB, and RB. Kaytron Allen has been the most dominant PSU player, but is getting limited touches. If Franklin and the coaching staff adjust, this will be a blowout. But will they… and have they ever? Doubtful. Therefore, give me Northwestern and the points on the road.

 

On the Outside Looking In (Others I Considered – Large List This Week):

  • Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders (-4.5) – Chicago offense hard to predict
  • Arizona Cardinals (+7.5) at Indianapolis Colts – How will Cards respond following collapse?
  • Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens (+7.5) – Lamar’s health is the question
  • Iowa Hawkeyes (-3.5) at Wisconsin Badgers – Likely better top five options than this one
  • Michigan Wolverines (+2.5) at USC Trojans – Some risk due to cross country travel
  • Nebraska Cornhuskers at Maryland Terrapins (+7) – Tight Big Ten matchup could go either way
  • Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) – Enough close games in this rivalry to give caution
  • Georgia Bulldogs (-3.5) at Auburn Tigers – Auburn two TD or less games on road against top teams
  • Alabama Crimson Tide (-3) at Missouri Tigers – Feeling Alabama, but the team stats scare me
  • Detroit Lions (+2.5) at Kansas City Chiefs – Gut say Lions, but Mahomes at home in must win

Week 6 Football Picks: SportsChump

$50 on Indiana Hoosiers at Oregon Ducks (- 2 ½ Quarter One)

If you look at the top of the Big Ten standings, you’ll find three undefeated teams, Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon.  Two of those teams play each other this weekend.  Seventh ranked Indiana travels across the country this weekend to, yes, play a conference rival.  This is where we are with college athletics.  Oregon comes home after beating Penn State on the road last Saturday.  Their other games have not been close, winning their previous four by a combined 166 points.  Indiana has also been impressive with a 5-0 start, but struggled at Iowa, winning 20-15 in a stadium where no team is allowed to score more than three touchdowns. 

These two schools have not met in over twenty seasons, meaning not only have none of these Hoosiers played at Oregon but they were barely born the last time their school did.  Both quarterbacks are talented and incredibly efficient, Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and Oregon’s Dante Moore combining to throw 30 touchdowns and only two interceptions.  While I like Oregon in this game, the sights and sounds of playing Eugene overwhelming for the newcomers, I’d like to remind you that you can wager on quarters, so let’s do that.  With the assumption that coming out strong might be too much to ask for this cross-country traveling Indiana team, I will take Oregon to cover the first quarter line of 2 ½.

$40 on San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (- 2 ½)

Ya know what?  I’m going to show a little faith in my home team.  With injuries galore, the Buccaneers have done the unthinkable, starting 4-1 with key players on injured reserve.  All Baker Mayfield has done in the meantime is vault himself into the MVP conversation.  His odds are down to nine to one.  Equally injured, the Niners upset the Rams last week with a gimpy Mac Jones leading the way.  I’m not sure who the Niners will be starting at quarterback this weekend, Mac Jones or Brock Purdy, but whichever they do, they’ll have to wheel him out like Hannibal Lecter on a dolly.  Mac Jones is probably still asking for a little more time in that ice bath. 

This line, under a field goal, shows little faith in the Bucs and too much in San Fran, probably because of the disparity at running back with Bucky Irving still unavailable.  Expect a healthy dose of clock control from San Fran.  You’ll see plenty of Christian McCaffrey this weekend so if reception/rushing attempt props are your thing, you may want to look at those.  As ridiculous as this sounds, with as many injuries as these teams have had, the outcome of this game might determine the NFC’s top seed even though these teams have combined for an 8-2 record and a point differential of only 11.  With all that on the line, and the fact that the Lions will probably snake that top spot, knowing what’s at stake, I like the Bucs’ chances so I’m laying only 2.5 at home

$30 on Los Angeles Rams (-7 ½) at Baltimore Ravens

Man, are the Ravens facing the Rams at the wrong time.  The Los Angeles Rams have had a full week and a half to stew over how they gave away last Thursday’s thriller to the Mac Jones-led Niners.  After that gutsy performance, Jones may have earned himself a starting gig with a new team as he looked sheer Terminator-like.  This week, the Ravens continue to start Cooper Rush whose name reminds me of those bad uniforms the NFL used to make teams wear on Thursday nights a few years ago. 

This line is 7.5 and while I tried to find a service that offered the seven without the hook, I’m so confident the Rams will expose the banged-up Ravens that I’m not letting the half-point shake me off the wager (although you wouldn’t offend me if you told me you wanted to tease it down to 6 ½ in real life). 

The Rams rank second in offensive yards per game, and Kyrien Williams will want retribution for all the footballs he coughed up last week.  Meanwhile, the Ravens are second in the league in yards allowed per game.  They can’t stop anybody, nor do they give the ball enough to Derrick Henry to control the clock.  Henry has only 64 carries this season, which is thirty behind the league leader Jonathan Taylor.  As much as Coach Harbaugh wants to stop the bleeding, his team isn’t healthy enough to do so and he’s going against a team that is livid about the way they lost last week.  I like the Rams to cover the 7 ½.

$20 on Rams over 27 total points scored

For the reasons we just discussed, the Rams will use this Ravens matchup as a scrimmage.  The Ravens do not have the personnel to stop anyone, never mind one of the league’s most potent offenses, starring the early favorite for NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year, Puca Nacua.  I’m looking at multiple TD props for Stafford, Williams and Nacua as the Rams should not have any problems scoring.

$10 on Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers (-14)

Who would have ever thought we’d be excluding the Aaron Rodgers-led Pittsburgh Steelers from the AFC-North-is-a-dumpster-fire conversation yet thanks to the power of ayahuasca, they’re the only one we’re not talking about… yet.  Give it time.  Instead, the Bengals, Ravens, and Browns dominate the conversation, those teams going a combined 4-11, and even that futility doesn’t truly demonstrate how bad those teams really are.  The Browns are, well, the Browns, it’s expected, and while it’s easy to point to the Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson injuries as largely responsible for Cincinnati’s and Baltimore’s woes, it’s highly possible those teams were incomplete with them.  If any of these teams played in a real division this year, like the NFC North, they’d be staring at a top draft pick in the face.  They might be anyway. 

The Bengals, who once had faith in Tom Browning, who one Bengals fan friend touted as the best back up QB in the league, will soon, or maybe as soon as Sunday look to Joe Flacco, who they just traded late round draft picks for.  Do you know how bad things must be to trade a starting quarterback within your division and have both teams be okay with it?  I’m not sure what’s worse, the Browns willing to send Flacco to a division rival or the Bengals desperate enough to start a guy the Browns just benched.  Not only that but Flacco flew coach to his destination.  No limos.  No pickup.  No private owner jet saying welcome to Cincy, Mr. Flacco. 

 

Last Week’s Recap

  • $50: Illinois Fighting Illini (-7.5) at Purdue Boilermakers – CORRECT
  • $40: Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) – INCORRECT
  • $30: Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars – INCORRECT
  • $20: Texas Longhorns (-4.5) at Florida Gators – INCORRECT
  • $10: Mississippi State Bulldogs (+16.5) at Texas A&M Aggies – INCORRECT

Season Stats for Kevin Paul at TWHS (Top Five Only)

  • NFL: 6-8 (-$50)
  • CFB: 5-6 (-$20)
  • Overall: 11-14 (-$70)

Season Stats for Kevin Paul at TWHS (By Confidence)

  • $50: 3-2
  • $40: 2-3
  • $30: 1-4
  • $20: 3-2
  • $10: 2-3

Week-by-Week for Kevin Paul and TWHS (Top Five Only)

  • Week 01: NFL: 2-2 ($50) | CFB 1-0 ($20) | Week: 3-2 ($70) | Overall: 3-2 ($70)
  • Week 02: NFL: 2-1 ($40) | CFB 0-2 (-$50) | Week: 2-3 (-$10) | Overall: 5-5 ($60)
  • Week 03: NFL: 1-2 (-$40) | CFB 1-1 (-$10) | Week: 2-3 (-$50) | Overall: 7-8 ($10)
  • Week 04: NFL: 1-1 (-$30) | CFB 2-1 ($0) | Week: 3-2 (-$30) | Overall: 10-10 (-$20)
  • Week 05: NFL: 0-2 (-$70) | CFB 1-2 ($20) | Week: 1-4 (-$50) | Overall: 11-14 (-$70)

 

Chime in with your top picks for the week.  Thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!

Image Credit: Old School (2003)

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