What an average month. An average start. Average picks. An overall average record. Everything through four weeks has been… well, average. It certainly doesn’t compare to last year’s run of fire. How am I supposed to expect you to donate to the cause? When are you going to receive good selections and in turn make purchases on Fanatics through my affiliate links? Well, the time is now. It’s time to turn the corner. The SportsChump and I are ready with our Week 5 Football Picks and Top Bets.

Contest Reminder

This is a season long contest with potential prizes going out to our winners, so if you want to join in on the fun, drop a comment here or over at the land of the SportsChump.  We take our top five games of the week against the spread. If you beat us and go undefeated, that leads to fun prizes and heaps of praise on our websites.

With that said, here are our TOP FIVE Best Bets for the week, including my Week 5 Football Picks and Top Bets. The list is ranked in order of confidence, from 50 “dollars” down to $10.

Week 5 Football Picks and Top Bets – The Average Edition

KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports

$50: Illinois Fighting Illini (-8.5) at Purdue Boilermakers

Let’s lean on the Big Ten again. Illinois remains a ranked team, despite some up and down performances. That includes a 34-32 win at home against USC and a forgettable 63-10 loss on the road at Indiana. Statistically, Illinois doesn’t blow the doors off as a team, but that’s to be expected after losing a game by 53 points. So let’s check the Boilers instead. Purdue has 0 picks on defense and ranks 70th in passing yards allowed. They also rank 88th in run defense and 118th in rushing offense. Where Purdue excels is through the air, although the TD-to-INT ratio isn’t great. Again, this feels like a situation where Bret Bielema will establish the trenches and overpower Purdue over four quarters.  Illini cover on the road.

$40: Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)

Grab your tush and push it, because the Eagles keep winning. Sure, Philly’s four wins are all by a TD or less, but this one is in front of the home crowd. Denver has been a strong running team, ranking 5th in the NFL. Philly doesn’t rank as well against the run – not like past seasons. Still, Philadelphia is a +4 in turnover differential, tied for 4th best in the league. The Eagles are also tied for 5th in passer rating allowed (78.3). Denver starting QB Bo Nix has a 51.4 QB rating through four games, and that’s facing the Titans, Colts, Chargers, and Bengals. Philly is at another level, and the balance of this team is going to cause headaches for the Broncos all day. Eagles cover at home.

$30: Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Is the Kansas City offense officially back? Having Xavier Worthy available clearly helped. The Chiefs were much more explosive last week. Enter that “Duval” road game, not said in “Coen voice”, because that just creeps me out. Jacksonville actually ranks 4th in rushing offense, and that will be the chance for the Jags to challenge a Kansas City defense that has allowed 127.0 ypg on the ground. The Jags are also +9 in turnover differential, which leads the NFL through four weeks. But that’s facing the Panthers, Burrow-less Bengals, Texans, and 49ers. This is Patrick Mahomes and an offense that is starting to find its way. Chiefs cover on the road.

$20: Texas Longhorns (-4.5) at Florida Gators

The Gators are 1-3. Future coaching changes are all the talk. Texas remains off the map since its opening week loss to Ohio State. It’s not like that game was a blowout. Arch Manning is still a high pedigree player. The Texas defense has allowed just 7.8 ppg, 2nd best in the nation. The ‘Horns are 16th in pass defense and 3rd in rush defense. Offensively, the ranks aren’t bad, just not as strong as on defense. Arch hasn’t exactly blown the doors off, with weak opponents other than Ohio State. Still, he has 9 passing TD’s and 3 INT on the year along with 123 rushing yards and 5 TD’s on the ground. The Gators are struggling to find their way and this seems like a lopsided bet, despite home field. Longhorns cover on the road.

$10: Mississippi State Bulldogs (+16.5) at Texas A&M Aggies

Those feisty Bulldogs fought tooth and nail against the Vols last weekend, albeit a home game that went to OT. This is a road game against another top SEC opponent. With that said, winning by 17 is a tall order. The Bulldogs rank 32nd in rushing yards per game and have 16 TD’s on the ground. On the flip side, Mississippi State’s defense is consistent on both sides, but it s pass defense has more INT’s (7) than TD’s allowed (5). They also rank 27th in the nation in yards allowed per game through the air. This is a bounce back team and a group that is going to give every opponent a hard time, no matter the venue.  Give me Mississippi State and the points on the road.

 

On the Outside Looking In (Others I Considered – Large List This Week):

  • Detroit Lions (-10) at Cincinnati Bengals – Bungles are back without Burrow, Lions still explosive
  • Iowa State Cyclones (+1.5) at Cincinnati Bearcats – Hard to ignore ranked teams as underdogs
  • Michigan State Spartans (+12.5) at Nebraska Cornhuskers – Does home field really mean 2 TD win?
  • Penn State Nittany Lions at UCLA Bruins (+24.5) – Don’t believe in PSU’s offense, but UCLA stinks
  • Washington Huskies (-5.5) at Maryland Terrapins – Maybe the West coast travel will impact the Huskies
  • Tennessee Titans (+7.5) at Arizona Cardinals – Cards hurting in RB depth, but TEN to West Coast

 

Week 5 Football Picks: SportsChump

(Insert Picks)

 

Last Week’s Recap

  • $50: Los Angeles Chargers (-6) at New York Giants – INCORRECT
  • $40: Alabama Crimson Tide at Georgia Bulldogs (-2.5) – INCORRECT
  • $30: Oregon Ducks (+3.5) at Penn State Nittany Lions – CORRECT
  • $20: Chicago Bears (+1.5) at Las Vegas Raiders – CORRECT
  • $10: Ohio State Buckeyes (-8) at Washington Huskies – CORRECT

Season Stats for Kevin Paul at TWHS (Top Five Only)

  • NFL: 6-6 ($20)
  • CFB: 4-4 (-$40)
  • Overall: 10-10 (-$20)

Season Stats for Kevin Paul at TWHS (By Confidence)

  • $50: 2-2
  • $40: 2-2
  • $30: 1-3
  • $20: 3-1
  • $10: 2-2

Week-by-Week for Kevin Paul and The Wife Hates Sports (Top Five Only)

  • Week 01: NFL: 2-2 ($50) | CFB 1-0 ($20) | Week: 3-2 ($70) | Overall: 3-2 ($70)
  • Week 02: NFL: 2-1 ($40) | CFB 0-2 (-$50) | Week: 2-3 (-$10) | Overall: 5-5 ($60)
  • Week 03: NFL: 1-2 (-$40) | CFB 1-1 (-$10) | Week: 2-3 (-$50) | Overall: 7-8 ($10)
  • Week 04: NFL: 1-1 (-$30) | CFB 2-1 ($0) | Week: 3-2 (-$30) | Overall: 10-10 (-$20)

 

Chime in with your top picks for the week.  Thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!

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