The SportsChump is talking trash. Understandably, because my picks have been a dumpster fire for a few weeks now. He pinged me earlier this week asking if he should just pencil me in for one win. I didn’t have much of a comeback at the time, because the dig was earned. So, not surprisingly, as I narrowed down my list for the week, I went back and forth on a few games. Here’s hoping the final five to make the cut are better than the four that I left out. I got no fun references for you today, but I promise to come up with a unique theme next week. Let’s just roll on with our Week 11 Football Picks and Top Bets.

Although, before we get to the picks, I will add that we have an additional special guest this week. The Weiner (he didn’t give me a nickname) adds his picks for the week due to a scheduling miscommunication. Let’s see how he does and maybe he’ll be a future staple in these parts.

I’m just glad he didn’t come up with a nickname featuring the word glizzy.

Contest Reminder

This is a season long contest with potential prizes going out to our winners, so if you want to join in on the fun, drop a comment here or over at the land of the SportsChump.  We take our top five games of the week against the spread. If you beat us and go undefeated, that leads to fun prizes and heaps of praise on our websites.

With that said, here are our TOP FIVE Best Bets for the week, including my Week 11 Football Picks and Top Bets. The list is ranked in order of confidence, from 50 “dollars” down to $10.

Week 11 Football Picks and Top Bets – The Extra Guest Edition

KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports

$50: Penn State Nittany Lions (-6.5) at Michigan State Spartans

Let’s give my alma mater another shot in the $50 slot. Penn State played its best game of the season last week against the Hoosiers. A few bounces, breaks, and incredible catches prevented the upset. Now, it’s a question of whether this was the game that finally broke Penn State’s spirit. With the talent on Penn State’s roster, the Nittany Lions should win out and reach a bowl game. Michigan State is a program in turmoil, vacating wins and floundering its way through the season. No one expected these teams to be fighting for a first conference win in November, yet here we are. If Sparty were smart, they’d give Aidan Chiles the start, as he’s a mobile QB, and that’s burned Penn State all year. Still, Penn State has more talent and Terry Smith has done a solid job as interim head coach. Nittany Lions cover on the road.

$40: San Francisco 49ers (-3) at Arizona Cardinals

Brock Purdy is back for the Niners. Marvin Harrison Jr. is out for the Cards. So is RT Jonah Williams. Advantage: San Francisco. So, can we say double team on Trey McBride? Who else can Jacoby Brissett trust to make plays? Michael Wilson? Dortch? Sorry, Greg, but that name sounds like a soup made out of beets. Interestingly, from a statistical angle, both teams are allowing 339.4 yards per game on defense. That’s your random stat of the day. I’m not going to deep-dive too much into this game. The Niners are getting key guys back, while the Cardinals are losing more. It’s that simple. That plus Arizona looked horrible last week. 49ers cover on the road.

$30: Houston Texans (-5.5) at Tennessee Titans

This game went from out of the top five to the infamous $30 slot, where I’m 2-8 this season. The Titans – the NFL’s only one-win team –  are coming off a bye week and hopefully (for their sake) have found some answers to its stagnant offense. This division tends to feature a lot of tight games, but the Texans have won five of six in this rivalry. C.J. Stroud is out for Houston, but Davis Mills (312 total yards and 3 TD last week) has filled in admirably for him. My focus and reasoning is more on the defensive side, where the Texans lead the league in total defense (261.3 ypg allowed). On the flip side, Tennessee has the league’s most anemic offense (244.0 ypg – last in NFL). Texans cover on the road.

$20: Mississippi State Bulldogs at Missouri Tigers (-6.5)

Both these teams have burned me with picks this year. SEC games tend to get me quite frequently, yet I keep coming back for more. The Eli Drinkwitz noise to Penn State is likely buried in the social media rumors and not impacting the Tigers. Mississippi State is battle tested, going 0-4 against ranked teams and losing by an average of 14 points. Freshman QB Matt Zollers (replacing the injured Beau Pribula) has struggled against strong competition – Vanderbilt and Texas A&M, to be specific. Perhaps a home crowd facing a lesser opponent is just what the doctor ordered. Although, the Bulldogs (59th against the pass) are no slouch. Still, neither is Missouri’s top ten pass defense. Tigers cover at home.

$10: Green Bay Packers (-7) at New York Giants

Green Bay’s offense has fallen completely flat over the last two weeks. So why roll with them this week? A few reasons, really. First, there’s the health of the Giants. Dart is out and Jameis Winston is in. Winston is good for a few great lines, a few crab legs, and most importantly, a few turnovers. That benefits the Packers. New York is also down a few receivers, so the offensive depth is lacking. Next, we have New York’s defense, which ranks 29th in the NFL and 31st against the run. Expect a heavy dose of Josh Jacobs. After a few sluggish weeks from the Pack, we see a spark this week. Packers cover on the road.

 

On the Outside Looking In (Others I Considered – Large List This Week):

  • Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-16.5) at Boston College Eagles – BC playing hard, closer with ranked teams
  • Oklahoma Sooners at Alabama Crimson Tide (-5.5) – Tempting but is it too risky?
  • Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) at Los Angeles Rams – Red hot Seahawks are tempting; Will Adams play for LA?
  • Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) at Cleveland Browns – Feels like a trap game against a strong defense on road

 

Week 11 Football Picks: SportsChump

$50 on Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3)

As the Buccaneers do everything in their power to give away their lead in the NFC North, just underneath their tenuous perch is a bubbling toil of mediocrity between two teams that can’t figure out if they’re any good.  Take the Panthers for example.  One week, they go into Green Bay and win handily.  The next week, they follow up with a loss in New Orleans.  As my old friend G Mony used to say, can’t stand prosperity.  Same thing with the Falcons.  They beat the Buffalo Bills then proceed to lose four straight games. 

Sunday presents the ideal get right spot for the Falcons if they want any shot at making the post-season.  Drake London has been playing like a wide receiver possessed, fortunately not Antonio Brown style possessed, which is a whole other exorcist requiring level of possession.  Did you hear they just found this guy in Dubai?  But I digress.  Let’s just say I’m a lot more comfortable with my Drake London Most Receiving Touchdowns on the season prop than I was a month ago.  If the Falcons can get any sort of consistency out of Bijan Robinson, this is a perfectly winnable game.  While neither of these teams are very good on paper (which is not where they play games), the Falcons have the higher upside.  I’ll take the Falcons and lay the three as they continue to muddle up the division and remind Carolina who is its second-best team, and who is its third.

$40 on Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Pittsburgh Panthers (+12 ½)

I haven’t watched a lot of Notre Dame football this season, which is odd considering I work in an Irish Pub.  Hey, I’m busy over here.  I’ve watched even less Pittsburgh Panthers football.  What I do know is that Notre Dame has been on a heater after dropping their first two games of the season.  Those early stumbles gave them little room for error.  They’ve since rattled off seven straight wins rather convincingly, albeit against weaker opponents.  Their lone struggle during that streak came against ranked USC, whom they only beat by ten, but in that rivalry, you can throw everything out the window. 

This week, they travel to Pittsburgh to play in what I can only imagine will be brisk at best weather.  They’ll have to air it out a bit as the Panthers have one of the stingiest ground games in the nation, ranked third overall in rushing yards per game allowed.  The Irish should be able to sneak out of Pittsburgh with a win but I’m not sure they’ll get whatever they want against the Panthers, who have playoff aspirations of their own.  While the Domers will do their best to win convincingly to stay high in the power polls, the W is what’s most important.  I just don’t know that they get it by 12 ½ points, so I’ll take the Panthers plus.

$30 on South Carolina Gamecocks at Texas A&M Aggies (-17 ½)

Stick a fork in South Carolina.  They are done.  But SportsChump, you’ll retort, they just played four ranked SEC teams (LSU, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Ole Miss) respectfully, only losing by a combined 52 points.  I’ll give them that.  They held their own in those ball games.  I’m not sure any team in the nation has had a more difficult stretch over the past month.  I have news for the Gamecocks.  It doesn’t get any easier.  They’re about to play the SEC’s best when they travel to College Station this weekend. 

Texas A&M is playing on another level entirely, my friends.  A&M has the third highest scoring offense in the SEC and has its fourth stingiest defense. On the contrary, only three SEC teams have scored fewer points than South Carolina and only four have allowed more.  This has all the makings of a blowout.  Texas A&M knows what’s at stake.  South Carolina wants to move on from this season and pretend it never happened.  This line opened at 17 ½ and immediately jumped two points so I’ll take the Aggies minus the 17 ½ as they inch one step closer towards a conference championship.

$20 on Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders

The Cowboys just suffered a devastating loss and no, I’m not talking about their last game against the Arizona Cardinals.  Inexplicably, their top draft pick defensive end Marshawn Kneeland was found dead at only 24 years old.  He was one of the few bright spots of a struggling Dallas defense.  The Cowboys had their bye last week which means they’ve had an extra week to contemplate life and think about what they just lost.  This week, they travel to the Raiders whose only win after a Week One surprise against the Patriots has come against the lowly Titans. 

In fact, they’ve been blown out by good teams, only able to muster a combined 13 points against Indy, Kansas City and Denver.  To be clear, Dallas does not have the defense of those three teams.  In fact, theirs remains amongst the league’s worst, however, this is a game, they stand to get fired up for.  The Raiders are average defensively but have proven vulnerable to teams with good offenses.  The Cowboys have that and then some, still ranking top four in the league in total yards, passing yards and points per game.  Overall, this will be an emotional game for Dallas.  Despite their defensive woes, the veterans in that locker room will have them ready to win one for Kneeland.  Dallas minus the three.

$10 on Florida Gators at Ole Miss Rebels (-14 ½)

That’s it.  I’m doing it.  I’ve discussed Lane Kiffin so much on this website over the past month, his wife is starting to get jealous.  This is the weekend the coveted one, Coach Kiffin, hosts the Florida Gators.  As you may recall, after upsetting LSU last season, the Gators also toppled Ole Miss the following week.  I’m pretty sure Kiffin has been stewing about that loss for 364 days.  The rumors about Kiffin leaving Ole Miss have subsided but they’ll kick up again this week as he’s playing against one of the schools that’s courting, dare I say, stalking him.  As they say in Oxford, it won’t matter one pea-pickin’ bit.  Last season’s loss is a mile away and about to have its demons exorcised. 

Billy Napier is dropping off his resume at different schools around the conference and DJ Lagway’s picture can currently be found on the side of a milk carton.  It’s highly possible his future with the Gators is coming to an end.  This line is lofty, but life is for the daring.  I have a feeling, as I hinted earlier, that Lane Kiffin will inspire his team to prove that Ole Miss is no secondary program to the University of Florida.  As the Rebels bounce the Gators and their fans deeper into depression, he’ll be carried off the field on the shoulders of his players who know deep down in their hearts that he isn’t going anywhere.  Kiffin covers the 14 ½.

 

Week 11 Football Picks: The Weiner

Due to a scheduling miscommunication this week, we have an additional special guest making picks. The Weiner was kind enough to share his picks for the week, so I’m passing them along – and doing so free of hot dog jokes.

$50: Baltimore Ravens -7.5 at Cleveland Browns

Baltimore continues to turn around their season after starting 1-5 and gets to .500 by beating the Browns on the road. Lamar in his third game back from injury shows that he is going to take the Ravens on a run towards making the playoffs. Baltimore plays my lowly Jets next week who beat the Browns last week. I know the spread is more than a touchdown, but give me the superior, QB, RB and Coach hungry to make a run.

$40: Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 at Denver Broncos

This game can decide the AFC West. I know the Chiefs are 2.5 games the Broncos and the Chargers are ahead of them, but the Chiefs have not played the Broncos yet this season, so if they can sweep them, the division can be theirs. Broncos defense is tough, but similar to the first game I picked, give me the HOF Coach and QB trying to show everyone they are still the Chiefs and the team to beat in the AFC.

$30: SF 49ers -3 at Arizona Cardinals

I did not set out to keep picking road favorites, but here we are with the third straight pick doing so. Brock Purdy is back and right now the 49ers are on the outside looking in on the last playoff spot. Arizona is dealing with a lot of injuries and playing out a lost season. Give me the better team with a healthy QB making a playoff push over the Jacoby Brissett lead Cardinals.

$20: Buffalo Bills -5.5 vs. TB Bucs

Finally, I take a home team but still taking a favorite and giving up points. TB is without Evans, Bucky and Godwin and have to leave the warm sunshine of Tampa Bay and travel to chilly Orchid Park. Bills shake off the shocking loss to the Dolphins and try to stay within striking distance of the red-hot Patriots in their division. Sit back and watch the best QB matchup of the weekend.

$10: LA Chargers -3 at Jacksonville Jaguars

I really tried to take a dog in one of my picks but just couldn’t find one. This week has some great matchups, but there are also some games where no one but those fans will watch, and I didn’t want to take one of those games. Earlier I commented that the Chiefs can put themselves in a spot to make a run at the division with a win, but here the Chargers say, “hold my beer”. Eventually Herbert will need to take the next step to be a superstar, but still is head and shoulders better than Lawrence. Both West divisions are the best in the NFL and look for the Chargers to keep it that way on Sunday.

 

Last Week’s Recap

  • $50: Indiana Hoosiers (-13.5) at Penn State Nittany Lions – INCORRECT
  • $40: Detroit Lions (-8.5) at Washington Commanders – CORRECT
  • $30: BYU Cougars (+11.5) at Texas Tech Red Raiders – INCORRECT
  • $20: Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts (-6) – PUSH
  • $10: New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-3.5) – CORRECT

Season Stats for Kevin Paul at TWHS (Top Five Only)

  • NFL: 14-13-1 ($30)
  • CFB: 9-13 (-$170)
  • Overall: 23-26-1 (-$140)

Season Stats for Kevin Paul at TWHS (By Confidence)

  • $50: 5-5
  • $40: 5-5
  • $30: 2-8
  • $20: 5-4-1
  • $10: 6-4

 

Week-by-Week for Kevin Paul and The Wife Hates Sports (Top Five Only)

  • Week 01: NFL: 2-2 ($50) | CFB 1-0 ($20) | Week: 3-2 ($70) | Overall: 3-2 ($70)
  • Week 02: NFL: 2-1 ($40) | CFB 0-2 (-$50) | Week: 2-3 (-$10) | Overall: 5-5 ($60)
  • Week 03: NFL: 1-2 (-$40) | CFB 1-1 (-$10) | Week: 2-3 (-$50) | Overall: 7-8 ($10)
  • Week 04: NFL: 1-1 (-$30) | CFB 2-1 ($0) | Week: 3-2 (-$30) | Overall: 10-10 (-$20)
  • Week 05: NFL: 0-2 (-$70) | CFB 1-2 ($20) | Week: 1-4 (-$50) | Overall: 11-14 (-$70)
  • Week 06: NFL: 1-2 (-$40) | CFB 2-0 ($30) | Week: 3-2 (-$10) | Overall: 14-16 (-$80)
  • Week 07: NFL: 3-0 ($120) | CFB 1-1 (-$10) | Week: 4-1 ($110) | Overall: 18-17 ($30)
  • Week 08: NFL: 1-0 ($50) | CFB 0-4 (-$100) | Week: 1-4 (-$50) | Overall: 19-21 (-$20)
  • Week 09: NFL: 1-3 (-$100) | CFB 1-0 ($10) | Week: 2-3 (-$90) | Overall: 21-24 (-$110)
  • Week 10: NFL: 2-0-1 ($50) | CFB 0-2 (-$80) | Week: 2-2-1 (-$30) | Overall: 23-26-1 (-$140)

 

Chime in with your top picks for the week.  Thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!

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