What an average month. An average start. Average picks. An overall average record. Everything through four weeks has been… well, average. It certainly doesn’t compare to last year’s run of fire. How am I supposed to expect you to donate to the cause? When are you going to receive good selections and in turn make purchases on Fanatics through my affiliate links? Well, the time is now. It’s time to turn the corner. The SportsChump and I are ready with our Week 5 Football Picks and Top Bets.

Contest Reminder

This is a season long contest with potential prizes going out to our winners, so if you want to join in on the fun, drop a comment here or over at the land of the SportsChump.  We take our top five games of the week against the spread. If you beat us and go undefeated, that leads to fun prizes and heaps of praise on our websites.

With that said, here are our TOP FIVE Best Bets for the week, including my Week 5 Football Picks and Top Bets. The list is ranked in order of confidence, from 50 “dollars” down to $10.

Week 5 Football Picks and Top Bets – The Average Edition

KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports

$50: Illinois Fighting Illini (-7.5) at Purdue Boilermakers

Let’s lean on the Big Ten again. Illinois remains a ranked team, despite some up and down performances. That includes a 34-32 win at home against USC and a forgettable 63-10 loss on the road at Indiana. Statistically, Illinois doesn’t blow the doors off as a team, but that’s to be expected after losing a game by 53 points. So let’s check the Boilers instead. Purdue has 0 picks on defense and ranks 70th in passing yards allowed. They also rank 88th in run defense and 118th in rushing offense. Where Purdue excels is through the air, although the TD-to-INT ratio isn’t great. Again, this feels like a situation where Bret Bielema will establish the trenches and overpower Purdue over four quarters.  Illini cover on the road.

$40: Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)

Grab your tush and push it, because the Eagles keep winning. Sure, Philly’s four wins are all by a TD or less, but this one is in front of the home crowd. Denver has been a strong running team, ranking 5th in the NFL. Philly doesn’t rank as well against the run – not like past seasons. Still, Philadelphia is a +4 in turnover differential, tied for 4th best in the league. The Eagles are also tied for 5th in passer rating allowed (78.3). Denver starting QB Bo Nix has a 51.4 QB rating through four games, and that’s facing the Titans, Colts, Chargers, and Bengals. Philly is at another level, and the balance of this team is going to cause headaches for the Broncos all day. Eagles cover at home.

$30: Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Is the Kansas City offense officially back? Having Xavier Worthy available clearly helped. The Chiefs were much more explosive last week. Enter that “Duval” road game, not said in “Coen voice”, because that just creeps me out. Jacksonville actually ranks 4th in rushing offense, and that will be the chance for the Jags to challenge a Kansas City defense that has allowed 127.0 ypg on the ground. The Jags are also +9 in turnover differential, which leads the NFL through four weeks. But that’s facing the Panthers, Burrow-less Bengals, Texans, and 49ers. This is Patrick Mahomes and an offense that is starting to find its way. Chiefs cover on the road.

$20: Texas Longhorns (-4.5) at Florida Gators

The Gators are 1-3. Future coaching changes are all the talk. Texas remains off the map since its opening week loss to Ohio State. It’s not like that game was a blowout. Arch Manning is still a high pedigree player. The Texas defense has allowed just 7.8 ppg, 2nd best in the nation. The ‘Horns are 16th in pass defense and 3rd in rush defense. Offensively, the ranks aren’t bad, just not as strong as on defense. Arch hasn’t exactly blown the doors off, with weak opponents other than Ohio State. Still, he has 9 passing TD’s and 3 INT on the year along with 123 rushing yards and 5 TD’s on the ground. The Gators are struggling to find their way and this seems like a lopsided bet, despite home field. Longhorns cover on the road.

$10: Mississippi State Bulldogs (+16.5) at Texas A&M Aggies

Those feisty Bulldogs fought tooth and nail against the Vols last weekend, albeit a home game that went to OT. This is a road game against another top SEC opponent. With that said, winning by 17 is a tall order. The Bulldogs rank 32nd in rushing yards per game and have 16 TD’s on the ground. On the flip side, Mississippi State’s defense is consistent on both sides, but it s pass defense has more INT’s (7) than TD’s allowed (5). They also rank 27th in the nation in yards allowed per game through the air. This is a bounce back team and a group that is going to give every opponent a hard time, no matter the venue.  Give me Mississippi State and the points on the road.

 

On the Outside Looking In (Others I Considered – Large List This Week):

  • Detroit Lions (-10) at Cincinnati Bengals – Bungles are back without Burrow, Lions still explosive
  • Iowa State Cyclones (+1.5) at Cincinnati Bearcats – Hard to ignore ranked teams as underdogs
  • Michigan State Spartans (+12.5) at Nebraska Cornhuskers – Does home field really mean 2 TD win?
  • Penn State Nittany Lions at UCLA Bruins (+24.5) – Don’t believe in PSU’s offense, but UCLA stinks
  • Washington Huskies (-5.5) at Maryland Terrapins – Maybe the West coast travel will impact the Huskies
  • Tennessee Titans (+7.5) at Arizona Cardinals – Cards hurting in RB depth, but TEN to West Coast

 

Week 5 Football Picks: SportsChump

$50 on Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles (-3 ½)

The Denver Broncos absolutely walloped the Cincinnati Bengals last Monday night.  Bo Nix looked the best he’s looked all season, and the Broncos defense finally resembled a Sean Payton creation.  But I still have a feeling these Philadelphia Eagles are doing just enough to get by.  Aside from a few missteps against a feisty and injured Buccaneers team, the Eagles controlled that game in the blistering Tampa heat.  The Broncos’ last opponent, the Cincinnati Bengals, are spiraling without their quarterback, that win, while convincing, not as impressive. 

This line has inexplicably moved in Philly’s favor, down from 5 ½ to 3 ½, one can only assume because of how good Denver looked against Cincy.  But until Philly takes it out of third gear, I’m still riding this well coached and disciplined team.  Remember, Philly has already beaten the Rams, the Bucs and the underrated Cowboys.  The Bengals would get pummeled by all three of those teams.  I’m taking Philly at home – 3 ½.

$40 on Dallas Cowboys (pick ‘em) at New York Jets

I might be crazy but, as they’re on TV all the fucking time, I still think the Cowboys aren’t as bad as they’re made out to be.  Sure, they’re atrocious on defense but so are so many other teams in the league.  Dak Prescott and George Pickens showed us all last Sunday night how easily they can score, and I continue to be impressed with Javonte Williams who is sixth in the league in rushing.  The Jets are horrible, regardless of who they start at quarterback, Justin Fields or Tyrod Taylor.  They got spanked by the Dolphins in Miami and we all know how bad the fish are. 

The over/under moving from 46 ½ up to 48 indicates they like this to be a high scoring affair and if that’s the case, I give the nod to the team with the better offense.  The Jets are 0-4 and have one of the worse defenses in the league.  If that defense doesn’t put forth an effort, they’ll soon be 0-5.  Dallas’ defense is equally bad, but I trust their offense more than I do New York’s.  This line opened at pick ‘em so I will take the Cowboys for the outright win on the road, very possibly in the final possession of the game.

$30 on Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Chargers (- 2 ½)

We haven’t seen much of Jayden Daniels this season, so we don’t yet know the true depth of his sophomore slump.  Marcus Mariotta has had to fill in the last two games but even the games Daniels has played in (win at Giants, loss at Green Bay), he hasn’t looked his efficient self.  His completion percentage is down dramatically, and this Sunday he’ll be going against a defense that can make young quarterbacks look bad. 

As of Thursday, Daniels looks like he will play this weekend but he’s without his weapons.  Deebo is questionable and McLaurin is out.  I still see us in the beginning of a “Washington isn’t as good as they were last year” mixed in with a “Chargers are way better than they were last year” phase.  This line is too small for my liking so I’m taking the Chargers at home laying a small number.  Chargers are better.  They’re at home and coming off an embarrassing loss.  Washington is still trying to figure things out.  LA minus 2 ½ is the play as Chargers get back on track.

$20 on Vanderbilt Commodores at Alabama Crimson Tide (-10 ½)

Alright, let’s get real.  Undefeated Vanderbilt heads into Tuscaloosa this weekend and for the first time ever in this SEC rivalry, I believe both teams are ranked.  Do you know why that is?  It’s because Vanderbilt is never ranked.  They are this year, a cool 16th in the nation and 5-0 with impressive wins over both Virginia Tech and South Carolina but let’s be honest.  Neither of those schools is Alabama. Last year, Vandy shocked the ever-loving elephant shit out of Alabama beating them 40-35.  It was the first time in about fifty years that the Commodores had beaten the Crimson Tide where the wins weren’t either forfeited or vacated.  Hey, if you’re not cheating, you’re not trying. 

I fully expect the boys in red to remind the smart kids from Nashville of their proper place in the Southeastern Conference pecking order.  Prior to last year’s upset, the Crimson Tide had won the last three games in this “rivalry” by a combined score of 148-3.  This line has been bet down to 10 ½.  Take it where you can get it.  Bama rides their hot streak from beating Georgia home to beat Vandy and cover.

$10 on Dallas Cowboys/New York Jets (Over 46 ½)

What the heck, let’s go back to the well one more time.  Last week, we warned you about the Ravens, both defensively and offensively.  With Lamar, who is currently injured, they remain one of the most impressive offenses in the NFL.  Defensively, they’re horrible.  Since Lamar is out this week and Baltimore faces a Texans defense that’s pretty good, let’s shift to one of other more blatantly offensive defenses in the league.  Said defense belongs to the Dallas Cowboys.  This probably isn’t as rare as one would think but the Cowboys lead the NFL in both yards per game and yards allowed per game. 

That means Justin Fields, who looked effectively mobile on Sunday, might be getting his fair share of yardage (Note: I picked him off the waiver and am starting him in one of my fantasy leagues.)  Defensively, the Jets are allowing the fourth most points in the league which means Dak and Pickens should continue to do their thing.  This over/under remains way too low when both these teams allow 30 points a game.  30+30 = 60.  60 > 46.5.  Give me this game over.

 

Last Week’s Recap

  • $50: Los Angeles Chargers (-6) at New York Giants – INCORRECT
  • $40: Alabama Crimson Tide at Georgia Bulldogs (-2.5) – INCORRECT
  • $30: Oregon Ducks (+3.5) at Penn State Nittany Lions – CORRECT
  • $20: Chicago Bears (+1.5) at Las Vegas Raiders – CORRECT
  • $10: Ohio State Buckeyes (-8) at Washington Huskies – CORRECT

Season Stats for Kevin Paul at TWHS (Top Five Only)

  • NFL: 6-6 ($20)
  • CFB: 4-4 (-$40)
  • Overall: 10-10 (-$20)

Season Stats for Kevin Paul at TWHS (By Confidence)

  • $50: 2-2
  • $40: 2-2
  • $30: 1-3
  • $20: 3-1
  • $10: 2-2

Week-by-Week for Kevin Paul and The Wife Hates Sports (Top Five Only)

  • Week 01: NFL: 2-2 ($50) | CFB 1-0 ($20) | Week: 3-2 ($70) | Overall: 3-2 ($70)
  • Week 02: NFL: 2-1 ($40) | CFB 0-2 (-$50) | Week: 2-3 (-$10) | Overall: 5-5 ($60)
  • Week 03: NFL: 1-2 (-$40) | CFB 1-1 (-$10) | Week: 2-3 (-$50) | Overall: 7-8 ($10)
  • Week 04: NFL: 1-1 (-$30) | CFB 2-1 ($0) | Week: 3-2 (-$30) | Overall: 10-10 (-$20)

 

Chime in with your top picks for the week.  Thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!

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