“We got no food, we got no jobs, our pets’ heads are falling off!” At least, that’s how the season feels to this point. Some of our picks have been DUMB… and… well… some have also been DUMBER. If I had a parakeet named Petey, he’d be making better selections at this point. Then again, two of my top three picks had late fourth quarter turns. Insane ones. One was Green Bay’s collapse in Cleveland. Kind of like getting robbed by a sweet old lady on a motorized cart, I didn’t see it coming. The other was Tampa Bay’s blown lead… although the Bucs eventually kicked a game winner. To add salt to the wounds, my “on the outside looking in” picks were 4-1. Either way, the SportsChump and I are ready with our Week 4 Football Picks and Top Bets.

We aren’t going to be filling out any IOU’s, especially not a car worth $275 thousand. It’s just time for us to deal out solid pick after solid pick, all the while adamantly stating…

There you go… there you go… there you go…

That’s a quartet of Dumb and Dumber references and we aren’t even to the actual games yet. Let’s see just how many more I can plug in.

Oh, and speaking of Dumb and Dumber, College Football has left me writing up IOU’s this season, so it only makes sense for me to go hard on the college level this week. If you consider the theme, that is.

Contest Reminder

This is a season long contest with potential prizes going out to our winners, so if you want to join in on the fun, drop a comment here at TWHS… or over at the land of the SportsChump.  We take our top five games of the week against the spread. If you beat us and go undefeated, that leads to fun prizes and heaps of praise on our websites.

With that said, here are our TOP FIVE Best Bets for the week, including my Week 4 Football Picks and Top Bets. The list is ranked in order of confidence, from 50 “dollars” down to $10.

Week 4 Football Picks and Top Bets – Dumb and Dumber Edition

KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports

$50: Los Angeles Chargers (-6) at New York Giants

I’m leaning hard on Harbaugh and the Chargers so far this season. This week? No different. Who trusts Brian Daboll and the hapless Giants at this point? Daboll reportedly loves… LOVES rookie Jaxson Dart, who will be starting and replacing Russell Wilson this week in New York. The fans will be pumped. Maybe Daboll will land a bullseye with Dart. But with game one facing a talented and balanced Chargers team? I’m not so sure. To add some stats into the mix, the Chargers are 6th in total offense and 2nd in passing. The Giants, meanwhile, are 31st in total defense. Outside of cross country travel, this seems like a mismatch. L.A. has more depth. It all comes down to Dart in his debut. Chargers cover on the road.

$40: Alabama Crimson Tide at Georgia Bulldogs (-2.5)

This rivalry hit hard for years, but does it really feel that way this year? Seriously though? Things change in rivalries, but Alabama just doesn’t have the “it factor” with Kalen DeBoer as the HC in Tuscaloosa. A 14-point loss at Florida State was a surprise at the time, but the 24-point win over Wisconsin shouldn’t make the team think they are back. The Badgers are not a strong team in 2025. Georgia found a way at Tennessee two weeks ago and has had a bye to prepare. It comes down to Georgia QB Gunnar Stockton, who was outstanding at Tennessee (23-31, 304 yards passing, 38 yards rushing, 3 total TD). If he’s clicking against Alabama’s defense, then it won’t be close. Bank on it. Georgia covers at home.

Now, because I tend to pick my alma mater in big games, it’s time. If James Franklin loses another big game, the follow-up chatter will officially replace the most annoying sound in the world.

$30: Oregon Ducks (+3.5) at Penn State Nittany Lions

Oh, my alma mater… Penn State. The Nittany Lions are doing all the right things. PSU is enhancing Beaver Stadium, reeling in recruits, and increasing NIL focus. So many players could have bolted for the NFL, but didn’t. This is arguably the most talented PSU team since I was a student there. Let’s keep the dates aside – it’s not pretty. So here we are – marquee coordinators and all. Yet, Penn State has been flat on offense facing weak opponents. Oregon, meanwhile, has not. Neither team is all that battle tested. The White Out is an incredible environment, but everyone – and I mean EVERYONE – knows James Franklin’s record in big games. I’m winless in the $30 slot, and that’s why this pick is here. I’ve never wanted to be more wrong in my life. Give me Oregon and the points on the road.

Wait, picking the winless $30 slot game because you want your alma mater to win?

$20: Chicago Bears (+1.5) at Las Vegas Raiders

Who are you, Ben Johnson? Chicago certainly showed some offensive spark against the Cowboys last week. On the flip side, the Raiders opened the door for the Commanders to gain yards in every way, shape, and form. So what gives with this line? It’s obvious that the Raiders want to become more consistent offensively, especially considering its 30th ranked rushing offense. Ashton Jeanty has got to be better than this, right? Vegas’s O-line, too? I’m banking on Ben Johnson – that and the fact that Chicago has been strong in the turnover ratio column, too. Give me the Bears and the points on the road.

Now it’s time to pick against some canines… DOGS!

$10: Ohio State Buckeyes (-8) at Washington Huskies

Pretty hard debate on this one and whether to include it. Cross country travel has impacted opponents in the Big Ten. Still, if you’re the supposed number one team, you find a way. People say this Washington offense is strong… and they do rank well (9th in rushing, 15 TD, 30th in passing, 6 TD, 0 INT). The Huskies average nearly 56 points a game, but have faced Washington State, Colorado State, and UC Davis. Usually that in-state rivalry would be something, but the Cougars gave up 59 points to North Texas two weeks ago. Enter the talent rich Buckeyes that are allowing 5.3 ppg. Washington will hang for a bit, but lose steam in the second half. Ohio State covers on the road.

On the Outside Looking In (Others I Considered – Large List This Week):

  • Washington Commanders (+2.5) at Atlanta Falcons – Daniels and Terry out, line shifts, but…
  • UCF Knights (+6) at Kansas State Wildcats – The Frost-UCF magic is back, but so is KSU’s Dylan Edwards
  • Duke Blue Devils at Syracuse Orange (+5.5) – Orange’s starting QB is out, but what will the impact be?
  • Tennessee Titans (+7) at Houston Texans – When is Houston’s offense going to wake up?
  • Tennessee Volunteers (-7.5) at Mississippi State Bulldogs – SEC gonna SEC so it’s a risk – maybe
  • New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills (-14.5) – Feels likely but still a really steep line

Week 4 Football Picks: SportsChump

$50 on Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams (-2 ½)

We’re coming up with nicknames now.  3-0 will earn you that honor.  All seems right in the Midwest with the Indianapolis Colts unexpectedly turning heads.  Jonathan Taylor is running his ass off, leading the league in rushing yards and yards per game.  And the newly nicknamed Daniel “Indiana” Jones has revived his career, leading the Colts to their undefeated start.  The problem is the Colts now face a legitimate defense.  While the Colts put up 29 against Denver, whose defense we suspect might not be as good as it was last year, they’ve also only played Miami and Tennessee, two of the worst teams in the league. 

Sean McVay will undoubtedly game plan his top five defense into stifling Taylor and forcing Indiana Jones into bad decisions.  (Note: You can find Daniel Jones over 0.5 interceptions at +120.)  Do you remember how the real Indiana Jones was afraid of snakes?  Expect McVay to throw some snakes his way.  Indy’s defense hasn’t had to stop an offense like L.A.’s either.  I like the Rams to bring Indy’s hot QB back to earth so we can go back to calling him by his given name: Daniel Jones.  Rams minus the 2 ½.

$40 on Philadelphia Eagles (-2 ½) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Man, I hate to say it, but my Buccaneers are gassed.  They’ve lost mainstay Mike Evans to a two-to-four-week hamstring injury, are down three offensive linemen and are already stitching things together more than Dr. Frankenstein in his laboratory.  Tack on a sore bicep for Baker Mayfield and the Bucs are experiencing December-like injuries in September. 

While the Eagles haven’t quite measured up to Super Bowl form, this is what championship teams do.  They bide their time and do just enough to win.  Philly is fresh off an emotional victory last week, when they came back from down 19 points to shock the Rams.  They’ll bring that momentum and unfortunate stale cheesesteak smell into the blistering Tampa heat to do enough to best our Buccaneers.  The line opened at 2 ½ and jumped to 3 ½ which means you could have found a middle if you looked closely enough.  Here’s hoping the Bucs play possum to sneak up and exact revenge in January for the loss they’ll experience in September.  Eagles cover the 2 ½ on the road.   

$30 on Tennessee Titans at Houston Texas (-6 ½)

I don’t know if I like throwing around “must-win” verbiage this early in the season, but the Houston Texans are 0-3 and have struggled immensely.  To be fair, they’ve played teams that are a combined 7-2.  Hosting the woeful Tennessee Titans couldn’t come at a better time.  CJ Stroud must get this team on the right track for their next two games are at Baltimore and Seattle, followed up by another two games against San Fran and Denver.  If Houston loses this game, they could conceivably be looking at an 0-8 start and not too many coaches can survive that.  I know they like DeMeco Ryans but he better right this ship ASAP or he’ll be polishing up his resume. 

The Titans are statistically one of the worst teams in the league on defense and aren’t much better on offense either.  We’re not a month into the season and the Titans have already changed who is calling their plays.  In this divisional rivalry, that might not matter much as Houston regains their swag and covers the 6 ½.

$20 on Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (over 48)

If you’re like the rest of America, you watched the Lions score at will against the Ravens.  You probably also saw the Bills do the same thing on opening night.  Week 2 excluded, where Baltimore handled the Browns, the Ravens have had a tough opening schedule and now travel to Kansas City.  Fortunately for them, these are not your older brother’s Chiefs.  Kansas City has been barely able to score the football, at least not at the rate they’re accustomed to.  The good news for KC is Baltimore is coming to town, their defense as porous as a brick of Swiss cheese infested with a family full of mice. 

When they’re not fumbling the football, Baltimore remains one of the most talented offenses in the league.  Until Coach Harbaugh can figure out what the hell is going on with his defense, they’ll continue to be unreliable, and I will continue to bet every Ravens game over.  This one’s only 48.  The Chiefs will look to gain back some of their mojo and what better team to do so against than the Ravens. Baltimore is allowing 32 points per game, good enough for second worst in the league.  They’re also the highest scoring offense in the league, putting up 37 a clip.  37+32 = 69.  69 > 48.  That’s all I need to know.  This game goes over the number of 48.

$10 on Louisiana State Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels (-1 ½)

We haven’t bet much on the NCAA lately so let’s give it the old college try.  With the traditional SEC powerhouses going through the motions, one school is surprisingly flying under the radar.  That team is Ole Miss.  Coach Kiffin once again has his team up to its old tricks. They’re top 12 in the nation in scoring, featuring a pass-happy yet well-balanced offense. 

While LSU’s young quarterback is all the rage these days, Nussmeier already hearing his name mentioned atop many draft boards, LSU hasn’t looked like a fourth ranked team in the nation.  They won at Clemson which, which in retrospect doesn’t seem all that impressive and they only beat Florida 20-10 in Death Valley at night, a game they should have run away with.  Ole Miss is easily the best team LSU has faced this early in the season.  These highly contested matchups have gone to the home team each of the last five years.  I see no reason to think this shouldn’t happen a sixth.  Ole Miss wins at home this Saturday and covers the 1 ½.

Last Week’s Recap

  • $50: Green Bay Packers (-8.5) at Cleveland Browns – INCORRECT
  • $40: Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) – CORRECT
  • $30: New York Jets at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) – INCORRECT
  • $20: Illinois Fighting Illini (+6.5) at Indiana Hoosiers – INCORRECT
  • $10: Oregon State Beavers (+34.5) at Oregon Ducks – CORRECT

Season Stats for Kevin Paul at TWHS (Top Five Only)

  • NFL: 5-5 ($50)
  • CFB: 2-3 (-$40)
  • Overall: 7-8 ($10)

Season Stats for Kevin Paul at TWHS (By Confidence)

  • $50: 2-1
  • $40: 2-1
  • $30: 0-3
  • $20: 2-1
  • $10: 1-2

Week-by-Week for Kevin Paul and The Wife Hates Sports (Top Five Only)

  • Week 01: NFL: 2-2 ($50) | CFB 1-0 ($20) | Week: 3-2 ($70) | Overall: 3-2 ($70)
  • Week 02: NFL: 2-1 ($40) | CFB 0-2 (-$50) | Week: 2-3 (-$10) | Overall: 5-5 ($60)
  • Week 02: NFL: 1-2 (-$40) | CFB 1-1 (-$10) | Week: 2-3 (-$50) | Overall: 7-8 ($10)

 

Chime in with your top picks for the week.  Thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!

Image Credit: Dumb and Dumber (1994)

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