This is what the Colts do to my family. They smack you in the face and then leave in the middle of the night. The video below describes what I’m talking about, if you haven’t picked up the reference yet. Although while that news clip is a bit old, it’s actually FORTY years since the Baltimore Colts left the city in the middle of the night (for Indianapolis). So why the obscure reference? It’s not because my family – a group that lived in the Baltimore area for many years – still talks about it daily. It’s simply my mind connecting the dots, as last week’s only blemish was the Colts knocking off the previously undefeated Steelers. It actually ended up being our only blemish of the week, as I went 4-0 in my other games (all College) and the SportsChump was a perfect 5-0. Congrats, my friend. Now, let’s see if we can match last week’s success. We are onto our Week 5 NFL Top Picks and CFB Bets.
It was difficult to narrow it down to five games this week, I’ll admit that – so we’ll see how it goes. As a result, my list of games I considered is about as long as the Mayflower moving truck that the Colts took out of Baltimore that night in 1984.
Pick Your Knows
Confident with your own picks? Think you know who will cover? Go ahead, “pick your knows”.
This is a season long contest with potential prizes going out to our winners, so if you want to join in on the fun, drop a comment here at The Wife Hates Sports… or over at the land of the SportsChump. We take our top five games of the week against the spread. If you beat us and go undefeated, that leads to fun prizes and heaps of praise on our websites.
Here are our TOP FIVE Best Bets for the week, including my Week 5 NFL Top Picks and College Football Best Bets. The list is ranked in order of confidence, from 50 “dollars” down to $10.
DraftKings Sportsbook: Current NFL and College Football Lines
Week 5 NFL Top Picks and CFB Bets – The Baltimore to Indy Edition
KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports
$50: Iowa Hawkeyes at Ohio State Buckeyes (-18)
Iowa starting QB Cade McNamara is a former Michigan player, so the excessive hatred for OSU already lives in his mind. The history of these two teams is surprisingly limited, with just five head-to-head matchups dating back to 2009. Ohio State won four of those games, including a 54-10 beatdown back in 2022. McNamara has just 588 passing yards on the season, and just 161 total in games against Minnesota and Iowa State. The Hawkeyes rely more on its top ten ranked rushing offense (250.25 ypg), but will now face an Ohio State defense that allows just 61.75 ypg on the ground (3rd in College Football). Add in home field at “The Shoe” and this won’t be close. Ohio State covers at home.
$40: Indiana Hoosiers (-13.5) at Northwestern Wildcats
I’ll bite. I’ll hop on the Indiana hype train. Curt Cignetti (11-1 with James Madison last year) has the Hoosiers filled with confidence. Indiana’s high flying offense ranks ninth in the country (513 yards per game). The Hoosiers average 51 points per game – a “50 burger”! Indiana’s offense has been well balanced statistically, too. The Hoosiers rank 18th in passing offense and 23rd in rushing offense. On the flip side, the Wildcats average just over 17 points per game. That includes games against Eastern Illinois and Miami Ohio. The numbers are lopsided, to the point that you wonder if it’ll come down to how Indiana responds now that they are ranked. Stay the course and it’ll be a blowout. Indiana covers on the road.
$30: Duke Blue Devils (+9.5) at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Don’t look now, but Manny Diaz has the Blue Devils 5-0. Yet, Duke is a nine and a half point ‘dog to the Yellow Jackets on the road. Duke ranks 25th in total defense, including 17th against the pass. Duke’s pass defense has allowed just 4 TD through the air in five games (with 4 INT). That will be a test for the Georgia Tech offense, which ranks 32nd in College Football. Georgia Tech starting QB Haynes King has been efficient this season, including his 312 passing yards against ranked Louisville last week. His lone INT was back on August 31 (vs Georgia State). This will be the matchup of the game. King versus Duke’s pass defense. In the end, Duke should keep this close. Give me Duke and the points on the road.
$20: Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders (-3.5)
All aboard the Jayden Daniels hype train! Sorry, it’s already left the station and tickets to catch the next one are increasing by the day. I first considered taking the over for this game, but found the Browns have been in low scoring games all season. That takes me back to Washington, a team having fun and filled with confidence. The Brian Robinson injury doesn’t help, but Austin Ekeler is cleared to return. Washington’s offense has scored on 23 possessions. Jayden Daniels has just 19 incompletions and Tress Way has four punts. These are insane numbers. On the flip side, Deshaun Watson (727 passing yards, 4 TD, 3 INT, 61.5 completion percentage, and 23.9 QB rating) has struggled. Commanders cover at home.
$10: Michigan Wolverines (+2.5) at Washington Huskies
On paper, we have a National Championship rematch. That should bring excitement, but once you look at the landscape and how different the rosters and coaching staffs are on both sides, it changes everything. The Wolverines have won three straight, including back-to-back three point victories against Minnesota and USC. Washington has been in its fair share of close contests, as well. Michigan ranks 116th in total offense, while the Huskies are 21st. The Huskies also rank higher in total defense. There are so many other games I nearly took here. It’s more a gut feeling, that a top ten team as a road ‘dog that is learning to win close games in hostile environments. Give me Michigan and the points on the road.
On the Outside Looking In (Other Games I Considered):
- UCLA Bruins (+27.5) at Penn State Nittany Lions – The Bruins are bad, but 4 TD’s bad?
- Ole Miss Rebels (-9) at South Carolina Gamecocks – How will Ole Miss rebound from tough loss?
- James Madison Dukes (-16) at Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks – How good is ULM at home?
- Missouri Tigers (+2.5) at Texas A&M Aggies – Too much of a tossup to add to top five
- Miami Hurricanes (-10) at California Golden Bears – Canes lucked out last week
- Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at Cincinnati Bengals – These divisional games often go either way
- Clemson Tigers (-14.5) at Florida State Seminoles – What will QB change do for FSU?
- Purdue Boilermakers at Wisconsin Badgers (-12) – I’ll regret not taking this one.
- Alabama Crimson Tide (-22) at Vanderbilt Commodores – How will Tide play after emotional win?
- Dallas Cowboys (+3) at Pittsburgh Steelers – Game of the week candidate for NFL
- Tennessee Volunteers (-13.5) at Arkansas Razorbacks – Road atmosphere only thing holding me back
- New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) – Chiefs aren’t blowing teams out
Week 5 NFL Top Picks and More: SportsChump
$50 on New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (-6)
One line stood out to me more than any other this week: that is the Giants traveling cross-country to play a pissed off Seattle team, with the ‘Hawks laying less than a touchdown. I figured this line would be closer to double digits yet here I am getting one of the better teams in football, hosting one of the worst teams in football, and I’m only laying six? What am I missing? Sure, the Seahawks are on a short week but so what? They’re healthy and angry they just got embarrassed by Detroit. Last time I checked, the G-Men aren’t starting Jared Goff.
The Giants have the worst record in one of the worst divisions in football. The Seahawks have the best record and sit atop one of the best divisions in football. The Giants have scored 60 points in their last four games. The Seahawks are top ten in scoring per game. I know underdogs are covering this year but the farther I dive into this matchup, the fewer reasons I find that the Giants keep it close. They won’t. And oh yeah, the Giants best player and most frequent target is on the shelf. Seahawks cover.
$40 on New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (+4, in London)
As you know by now, I’m a sucker for revenge games and there’s a beauty of one brewing in Week Five. The young, downtrodden quarterback we all once laughed at, who got run out of New York, now leads the league in touchdown passes while playing for another team. If bearded Sam Darnold wore a “Joke’s On You” t-shirt to practice, how many Minnesotans would gobble it up? I’m guessing the bulk of them. Of course, it helps to have Justin Jefferson to throw to, but the Minnesota Vikings are no fluke.
The question is, does Aaron Rodgers, thirteen years Darnold’s senior, have enough in him to pick at the Vikings soft spot. More importantly, Darnold, a shoo-in for comeback player of the year, was shunned by the team he’s hosting on Sunday. If you think for one moment the players in that Vikings locker room don’t want to win one for the kid, you’re out of your mind. Combine that with the Jets still trying to piece things together, and a once-vaunted defense that doesn’t look as good as it has in years past, and I’ll take the Vikes and the points overseas.
$30 on New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (Over 40, Still in London)
In keeping with my Jets-Vikings theme, let’s try this game over. The number is already low at 40, third lowest number on the board this week. Admittedly, if you take away the Niners game in Week One, the Jets have only allowed 30 points their last three games. But it’s the Niners game we should look at for that’s the best offense New York has played and they weren’t able to do anything about it. If the Vikes get out to a lead, the Jets will have to beat them through the air which, as I mentioned earlier, might be their game plan anyway.
That means big plays, incomplete passes, clock stoppages and more opportunities to score. We’ve been waiting for this Jets offense to get going. If they’re even somewhat able to match Minnesota’s offensive output, this game should clear the over easily. Besides, the game is in London and with the NFL’s continued effort to push its product down international throats, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a few whistles swallowed to promote scoring, even though we all know Londoners are perfect happy with 1-0 finishes in their sporting contests. I’m a believer in the Vikes. I say they score, New York has to throw to catch up and hit Minnesota where their vulnerable as we all happily watch this total go over 40.
$20 on Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders (+3 ½)
In the again-what-am-I-missing department, we have a division leader at home, hosting one of the most dysfunctional teams in the NFL and multiple opening lines had the Brownies favored?!? Again, let me back up my Brinks truck. After Week Four, there aren’t too many of us not hitching a ride on the Jayden Daniels bandwagon. The rookie has been lighting it up. You know who hasn’t been lighting it up? The quarterback he’ll be facing this weekend that Cleveland paid $230 million. Watson’s deal will go down as one of the worst contractual blunders in league history.
So why should I believe the Browns have anything left to give? They’re not a good football team. They’re one of the worst running teams in the league and guess what, they can’t pass the ball either. They’re middle of the road defensively and are going against a team that’s starting to look dangerous. The Commanders are one of the top-scoring teams in the league. The Browns, on the other hand, are counting down the weeks until season’s end, which is never a good sign in Week Five. Commanders continue to roll in a scrimmage and cover the three.
$10 on Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3)
I’m not quite sure what’s going on in Las Vegas but by all accounts, it doesn’t sound good. They’re actively dangling their best player as trade bait, mostly because he wants out, and their new head coach is defiant. At first glance, one would think Antonio Pierce a player’s coach, but I’m not convinced that’s the case. He’s waffling on who to start at quarterback, his best defensive player is all banged up and his best wide receiver is injured, allegedly. Pierce might be in over his head.
The Raiders lone bright spot this season was shocking the shit out of the Ravens. They also beat the Browns last week, but I mean, come on. They struggled against the disciplined Chargers defense and will do the same against Sean Payton whose Broncos have allowed the third fewest points in the league. For those of you waiting for the Raiders to implode, expect the fuse to get a whole lot shorter on Sunday. Broncos cover.
Last Week’s Recap: The Wife Hates Sports
- $50: Nebraska Cornhuskers (-10) at Purdue Boilermakers – CORRECT
- $40: Stanford Cardinal at Clemson Tigers (-21.5) – CORRECT
- $30: Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) at Indianapolis Colts – INCORRECT
- $20: Illinois Fighting Illini (+18) at Penn State Nittany Lions – CORRECT
- $10: Kentucky Wildcats (+17.5) at Ole Miss Rebels – CORRECT
Last Week’s Recap: SportsChump
- $50: Washington Commanders – Arizona Cardinals (Over 49.5) – CORRECT
- $40: Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-3.5) – CORRECT
- $30: Colorado Buffaloes (+14.5) at Central Florida Golden Knights – CORRECT
- $20: Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) – CORRECT
- $10: New Orleans Saints – Atlanta Falcons (Over 42) – CORRECT
Season Stats for Kevin Paul and The Wife Hates Sports (Top Five Only)
- NFL: 5-5 ($30)
- CFB: 7-3 ($130)
- Overall: 12-8 ($160)
Week-by-Week for Kevin Paul and The Wife Hates Sports (Top Five Only)
- Week 01: NFL: 1-2 ($20) | CFB 1-1 (-$10) | Week: 2-3 ($10) | Overall: 2-3 ($10)
- Week 02: NFL: 3-0 ($100) | CFB 1-1 (-$10) | Week: 4-1 ($90) | Overall: 6-4 ($100)
- Week 03: NFL: 1-2 (-$60) | CFB 1-1 ($30) | Week: 2-3 (-$30) | Overall: 8-7 ($70)
- Week 04: NFL: 0-1 (-$30) | CFB 4-0 ($120) | Week: 4-1 ($90) | Overall: 12-8 ($160)
Week-by-Week for the SportsChump (Top Five Only)
- Week 01: NFL: 3-0 ($70) | CFB 0-3 (-$80) | Week: 2-3 (-$10) | Overall: 2-3 (-$10)
- Week 02: NFL: 1-3 (-$60) | CFB 1-0 ($10) | Week: 2-3 (-$50) | Overall: 4-6 (-$60)
- Week 03: NFL: 2-1 ($10) | CFB 1-1 ($40) | Week: 3-2 ($50) | Overall: 7-8 (-$10)
- Week 04: NFL: 4-0 ($120) | CFB 1-0 ($30) | Week: 5-0 ($150) | Overall: 12-8 ($140)
Stats via CFBStats.com
Chime in with your top picks for the week. Thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!
——-
If you enjoy The Wife Hates Sports, you can support my work by buying from Fanatics through my site. It’s of no additional charge to you. I simply get a cut of any Fanatics sale purchased through links here. That goes for any Fanatics Experience ad within posts or via the banners on the home page.
5ag4gr
sq4xqb