Three straight weeks with a 2-3 record. It’s starting to become a mediocre and repetitive sports picking version of Groundhog Day in these parts. Call me the Tin Man, because I’m making these picks with no heart. Perhaps I’m more like the Scarecrow and just not using my brain – or having one. Wait, how did this shift from Groundhog Day to The Wizard of Oz in two measly sentences? You simply gotta keep up. Perhaps we should just move on and provide the Week 11 Best Bets here at The Wife Hates Sports?
Don’t get impatient and “don’t drive angry” – this is my writeup, after all!
Back to Groundhog Day again, really? Let me guess, you’re going to shift back to Oz again?
What’s next, making picks in favor of the Lions? Tough to do that! Maybe the Nittany Lions? What about the Tigers? Would that be the inconsistent Clemson Tigers facing Wake Forest? Perhaps the Bears. Wait, would that be the Chicago Bears or the Baylor Bears?
No. Actually keep the groundhogs. Pepper in some Ravens. The Bears will be there, too. In fact, let’s make sure to include both of the aforementioned Bears.
Now, let’s get to the games, because this simply isn’t going anywhere and I’m starting to feel like the Scarecrow again.
You’re right. This is probably the worst thing you have ever written. What kind of mashup are you planning next week, Dumb and Dumber meets Casablanca?
Hey, zip it, buddy. Oh, and stop giving me more great ideas.
The Wife Hates SportsChump Contest
As a reminder, Chris Humpherys (the SportsChump) – a good friend of mine through years and years of blogging – has a pick ‘em contest rolling with me for the football season. We pick our top five games by confidence (against the spread – ATS). Top selections can be from either the NFL or College Football slate. We invite a special guest each week to challenge us.
Here are our Week 11 Best Bets for the week (all ATS), which includes both NFL Week 11 Best Bets and College Football Best Bets. The list is ranked in order of confidence, from $50 down to $10 (in fictional dollars, as the SportsChump prefers). Also, because you haven’t had enough, each game will feature some more madness from either Groundhog Day or The Wizard of Oz.
Week 11 Best Bets: The Wife Hates SportsChump – The Oz Day Edition
DraftKings Sportsbook: Week 11 NFL Lines | Week 12 College Football Lines
KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports
$50 NFL: Baltimore Ravens (-5) at Chicago Bears
Justin Fields faces Lamar Jackson and an aggressive Ravens defense this week. The Ravens have been up and down as of late. Despite that, this matchup features two teams that tend to lean heavily on the ground game (including the QB’s). Baltimore ranks fourth against the run (88.2 ypg allowed) while the Bears defense ranks 22nd (122.8 ypg allowed). Offensively, the Ravens rank 2nd (414.1 ypg), while the Bears are 31st (280.7 ypg). Rashod Bateman is settling in as a solid #2 WR for Baltimore and that is only going to give this team more balance offensively. Overall, despite an ugly three-week stretch for the Ravens, I think the extra few days preparation will help. Baltimore covers in a big way – to the point that the Bears will be waiting for tomorrow to come.
Phil: Well, what if there is no tomorrow? There wasn’t one today.
$40 NFL: Green Bay Packers (-1) at Minnesota Vikings
We have ourselves a heated divisional rivalry and a tossup line. The Aaron Jones injury and Minnesota home turf are likely the primary reasons for the one-point spread. Let’s squash those facts first. For one, A.J. Dillon – the backup to Jones – is a beast. He can carry the load on his own, and quite honestly, should have a solid game against a Minnesota defense that ranks 28th against the run (130.6 ypg allowed). Also, the Packers have won two straight in Minnesota and seven of eleven. We are likely looking at a shootout, because well… Cousins isn’t playing on Monday night. He won’t implode. Overall, I like the talent and consistency of the Packers more. Green Bay covers and leaves Vikings fans losing sleep over another close loss to Aaron Rodgers.
Tin Man: Why don’t you try counting sheep?
Cowardly Lion: That doesn’t do any good, I’m afraid of ‘em.
$30 College: Baylor Bears (+1) at Kansas State Wildcats
Listen, I know most of us feel that the College Football Playoff committee has done a fairly poor job this season. That’s being kind. It’s almost like they are pulling numbers out of a hat and assigning rankings to teams that way. Despite that feeling, I’m trying to understand a spread that has the #11 Baylor Bears as a one point underdog to Kansas State. Sure, the game is being played in Manhattan, KS. But this Baylor team has an “it factor”, whether at home or on the road.
“Toto, I’ve got a feeling we’re not in Kansas anymore.”
C’mon, you knew that one was too easy. Anyway, Kansas State has been competitive, yet failed to beat any strong opponents, with losses to Oklahoma State (11 points), Oklahoma (6 points), and Iowa State (13 points). I’m not even going to check past history in this rivalry. I’m simply going to take the 11th ranked Bears on talent alone. Bears win it.
$20 NFL: San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags have actually won two straight at home and face a Niners team playing on short rest. I repeat, the Jags have won two straight at home.
Phil: Something is… different.
Rita: Good or bad?
Phil: Anything different is good.
Overall, I can’t get over just how good San Francisco looked against the Rams. Jimmy G. distributed the ball well, the play calling was sharp, and the run game was potent. This looked like the Niners team of a few years back. That was against a much more talented Rams team. Add in the fact that Jags RB James Robinson is day-to-day and the matchup looks even more lopsided on paper. For me, it comes down to the Jacksonville run defense, which actually ranks 12th in the league in yards allowed. If that unit has success, this could be a close game. Despite the short rest and the cross-country travel, I like San Francisco to build off last week’s momentum. Niners cover.
$10 NFL: Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-10)
I feel like I’m here picking the Titans every single week.
Rita: Do you ever have deja vu?
Phil: Didn’t you just ask me that?
In this rivalry, the Texans have lost three straight and five of seven. While most of those games were closely contested, let’s remember that included Deshaun Watson at QB and more talented Houston players on the field. This is a rebuilding team. As for Tennessee, while there’s no Derrick Henry, there is home field advantage. The RB replacement trio has fared well to this point. Tennessee’s defense has played great as of late and is tied for fifth in sacks (27 on the season). Plain and simple, the Titans are rolling – and I don’t see Houston getting in their way. Tennessee covers at home.
Now, onto a whole new kind of fairytale. That’s right, this week’s selections from the SportsChump.
SportsChump’s Picks
I’ll take $50 on Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs (-2 ½)
I’ve recently started dabbling in stock trading. It’s because I’m fancy and would prefer not to work fifty hours a week for the rest of my life. While the rest of America keeps waiting for the next big market crash, I’ve picked up a few helpful hints along the way. One such hint is to buy low and sell high. That’s why I’m selling the Dallas Cowboys this week and buying the Kansas City Chiefs. One could make the argument that the Dallas Cowboys are the best team in football. I know, I almost threw up in my mouth at the thought.
On the flip side, the Chiefs have struggled all season long. The Cowboys are coming off an emotional dismantling of the Atlanta Falcons, with defensive coordinator Dan Quinn drawing up the perfect game plan against his former team. Rest assured, Mr. Quinn, that the Kansas City Chiefs are not the Falcons. Last week, for perhaps the first time this season, the Chiefs finally looked like the Chiefs of old. They went into Las Vegas and stomped on the Raiders but more importantly, Pat Mahomes got his groove back, connecting with both Tyreke Hill and Travis Kelce however he saw fit. The Chiefs are going to have to make a playoff push here and the Cowboys are due a trip back down to earth after all the energy they exerted last week. Besides, this is Dak Prescott’s first trip to Arrowhead. In what should be a great game, I’m getting the home team in front of a raucous crowd and only laying two-and-a-half. The Chiefs showed me last Sunday they’re finally headed in the right direction. For that reason, I’m taking the Chiefs and laying the points.
I’ll also take $40 on the Washington Football Team (+3 ½) at Carolina Panthers
So, Cam’s back, huh? Let’s see how long that honeymoon lasts. If you think that the fellow they once called Superman coming out of retirement means all is suddenly right in Carolina, I have a raggedy cape and a pair of nerdy glasses to sell you. Remember, Van Halen once invited David Lee Roth back and got sick of him too. While Matt Rhule spins his wheel of fortune to see which signal-caller he starts this week, the Washington Football Team is doing just fine with Taylor Heinicke, who just beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Sitting at 43, this is the lowest over/under on Sunday’s slate of games, which isn’t surprising. This has all the makings of a close one. Ron Rivera is headed home to face his former team I do believe for the first time. Emotions will run high, just as they did with Quinn against the Falcons. I imagine you’d be hard-pressed to find a Washington football player that wouldn’t run through a wall for their head coach on Sunday. That’s reason enough to take Washington and the three-and-a-half points.
And how about $30 on Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+ 4 ½) at Clemson Tigers
If it weren’t for Clemson this year, I’d be in the red. We’ve talked about them laying too many points every week this season. I’m not sure why Vegas hasn’t caught on but betting against Clemson to cover is like finding a fifty-cent coupon for something that costs only forty cents and having the cashier give you ten cents change. Clemson is 2-8 against the spread this year. This week, they host tenth-ranked, one-loss Wake Forest.
Wake’s only loss was a 58-55 road barn-burner to UNC. Yes, you read that right. Wake put up 55 in that game and still lost a heartbreaker. Did you know that Wake Forest ranks behind only Ohio State in points scored per game this season? They score nearly 45 a game! I’m not sure Clemson will be able to a) stop Wake from scoring or b) match their scoring when they do. They over/under is only 56 and Wake is getting four-and-a-half. Considering all we know, I’m not sure either of those numbers make sense. I’d be silly at this point to not take “the team Clemson is playing” plus the points. In this case, that team is Wake and Wake ain’t bad so I will take Wake Forest plus the four-and-a-half.
I’ll do $20 on the New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10 ½)
You’ve seen that look on Tom Brady’s face before. The one where his team is down and he’s about to get the ball back to perfectly execute a two-minute drill. Everybody in the stands knows what’s coming. So does the opposing team. Victory Brady. This week, the Bucs are coming off back-to-bye-to-back losses. They lost to New Orleans, had a week to ruminate about it, then came back to lay an egg in Washington. This week, the defending Super Bowl champions take on the lowly Giants, who are also coming off a bye.
The Giants are better known as the team that Brady could never beat in the Super Bowl. This Monday is not the Super Bowl. In fact, the way the Bucs are playing, they’ll be lucky to get back there. Mums the word on whether Brady’s two biggest security blankets, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski, will return but either way, Brady is pissed. He just got a public tongue-lashing from his coach who said the stupid has to stop. It will on Monday night. The Bucs get back on track and cover the 10 ½ spread against the lowly G-Men.
And finally, $10 on Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+ 2 ½)
The Minnesota Vikings play in tight football games. Whether they win or lose, their games are always close. Their last six games have been decided by a touchdown or less. While I’d love to be getting a touchdown this Sunday as they host the Green Bay Packers, I am not. I’m only getting two-and-a-half, so a tease might be in order if you bet that way. In keeping with my buy low, sell high stockbroker 101 class, I’m going to do double down. People are already penciling the Green Bay Packers into the Super Bowl.
Meanwhile, the Vikings’ season is on the line. They call ill afford to drop to 4-6. Not only would a win here essentially give the Packers the NFC North but the Vikes would be all but out of the playoff race. They’ve fought hard all season so I can’t see them not doing that on Sunday. I’ll take the Vikes and the two-and-a-half for $10 please, Alex.
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Image Credit: The Wizard of Oz
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