A golf major is upon us – finally! The fan-free event in San Francisco will certainly have a different feel, mixed in with some cooler temperatures and monstrous challenges. All that adds up to what is certain to be a very entertaining tournament. So, heading into the first major since the restart, who should be considered the top 2020 PGA Championship Sleepers at TPC Harding Park?
Obviously, the term “SLEEPER” can be interpreted in a number of different ways. In this instance, I’m focusing solely on golfers that with a $10 bet can bring back no less than a grand (with a win, at least).
100:1 or bust, baby!
My focus is on the current odds (via Bovada) and not the DraftKings pricing. For those of you playing PGA DFS, don’t worry, I have content available in that space, too. You can also consider these players in your DK lineups, as well.
This week’s concept is sparked by last week’s successful sleeper picks, headlined by Brendon Todd, who the SportsChump bet $10 on – and nearly cashed in.
If not for that final round letdown… hey, well… it was fun while it lasted.
2020 PGA Championship Sleepers: Five Longshots to Consider
Bubba Watson (+10000)
Bubba has proven that he can win majors. There are two green jackets in his closet. With that said, his form at recent PGA Championships isn’t great. Bubba’s best recent finish is a T21 in 2015. He does have a runner-up back in 2010. Still, with his T25 finish last week, there are some positive signs. Statistically, we know he’s a bomber (13th in Driving Distance last 24 rounds). He’s also 1st overall in Par 4’s 450-500 yards (last 24 rounds). He’s also top ten in SG: Off the Tee. Where he’s struggled is around the green, with the short game and scrambling. An uptick there and who knows what can happen?
Paul Casey (+10000)
This is crazy to me. Most will be scared off by his recent form – and understandably so. Yes, Casey missed back-to-back cuts, then finished T67 last week at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude no-cut event. Look closer, however, and you’ll see that he finished the WGC-FedEx St. Jude with rounds of 69 and 67. Every streak starts somewhere, right? Dive into the Last 24 Rounds amongst the field and you’ll see Casey cracking the top 20 in Fairways Gained (via Fantasy National). He’s also 2nd in Proximity from 175-200 yards and 30th in SG: Approach – a key stat in all big tournaments. Like Bubba, he’s been abysmal around and on the greens. Clean that up and the overall game is there to make a run.
Billy Horschel (+12500)
Billy Ho is one of my favorite plays on DraftKings this week. His recent form is there (T25, T13 and T7 over his last three tournaments). He’s made six straight cuts at the PGA Championship. The stats are consistent in all key categories for a major. He hits enough fairways and has enough distance off the tee to survive this lengthy Par 70 course. His SG: Short Game (around the green and putting) cracks the top ten over the last 24 rounds. He’s also in the top 20 in strokes gained off the tee. He simply just has one top ten finish in a major, that being a T4 at the 2013 U.S. Open. Can he limit his mistakes and outplay this extremely deep field? That’s the real question.
Matt Wallace (+12500)
When it comes to Wallace, the appeal is past performance at the PGA Championship. He finished T19 in 2018 and T3 last year. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks 144th in the field in Fairways Gained, which is a major concern. He is, however, a bit of a master at getting out of trouble (15th in Scrambling). He’s also 7th in SG: Short Game (Around the Green + Putting), which proves he can get up and down. He’s also 40th in Driving Distance, which indicates that the longer holes won’t eat him up. Being born in England, he’s also likely to handle the cool, blustery conditions that San Francisco will have to offer.
Lucas Herbert (+50000)
Hey, if you’re feeling crazy, here’s an extreme longshot. Proceed with caution. The Australian born Herbert is actually ranked 72nd in the OWGR. That’s ahead of players like Keegan Bradley and Cameron Champ. He made the cut at the PGA Championship last year. Better yet, he has played in seven events in 2020 and has a win (Omega Dubai Desert Classic) and a runner-up finish (New Zealand Open presented by Sky Sport). Yes, it’s not the same competition. But he’s 6th in the field in Driving Distance (Last 24 Rounds). Not many other stats jump out when compared to this deep field. He could be a fit for other bets (e.g. Top 20 finish – +1600 or Top Rest of the World Player – +8000). It all depends on how crazy you’re feeling. My gut told me to add him – so here he is.
Last Week’s Picks: 2020 WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational
- Brendon Todd – T15 (led on the final day, final round 75)
- Ryan Palmer – T15
- Nick Taylor – T35
- Kevin Streelman – T35
Who do you have as your favorite sleepers for the 2020 PGA Championship? Chime in with your favorite plays below. Either that or stop by to praise or poke fun at mine.
Best of luck and as always, thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!