NFL Week 8 Picks: KP and SportsChump Welcome College Football Guru Lisa Horne

Remember two weeks ago when THE WIFE posted eleven wins against the spread?  After you hear how she did last week, you may want to use her advice for your NFL Week 8 Picks.

So, anyway, she topped her previous number in Week 7, going 12-3.  That’s 23-7 against the spread over the last two weeks!  Before you say it, no, she doesn’t google anything.  Half the time, she’s sitting on the couch hoping to steal the remote, so she can flip the channel over to Say Yes to the Dress.

I think she needs to say YES to the NFL instead.

When I told her that she topped the previous week’s huge (and unlikely) achievement, she simply responded by saying, “Yeah, that’s right”.

The WIFE is on FIRE, we know that much, but what else can be offered besides some NFL statistics, spread advice and smart selections?

The answer is Lisa Horne, long-time friend and College Football guru.

Lisa knows her football, and was kind enough to join us for this ongoing grand experiment.  She will be making picks as our special guest for Week 8.

Oh, and if you love college football, you would be wise to check out her new site, Pigskin Grind.  It comes highly recommended by The Wife Hates Sports, as does Lisa.

Best of luck, Lisa!

And now, a quick Week 7 recap: 

Week 7 Results:

KP (TWHS) – 10-5

Coin Flip – 6-9

Special Guest (Ed Hardiman) – 7-8

Sports Chump – 8-7

The WIFE (that HATES sports) – 12-3

On to Week 8, featuring a hefty slate of interesting games, including Packers-Saints, Bears-Patriots, Eagles-Cardinals and Redskins-Cowboys.

In the “Pick Your Knows” department, the Paul household dominated in Week 7:

2014 NFL Season Standings (Against the Spread)

• A push is counted as a tie in the standings
• Slight variation in spreads due to time and site used for picks

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are once again pointed in the right direction

It’s once again time to “Pick Your Knows” – the only time it’s not a disgusting habit – and here are  our NFL Week 7 Picks (with spreads as they appeared through CBS Sports on 10/22/14).

KP’s “Pick Your Knows”: 2014 NFL Week 8 Picks

KP’s Week 7 Recap (Season Total):

Against the Spread: 10-5 (60-46, 57%)

Straight Up: 9-6 (65-41, 61%)

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-7.5)

The Peyton Manning TD record is in the books, so that distraction is out of the way for Denver.  Enter division rival San Diego, with its high-octane offense led by Philip Rivers.  Denver destroyed San Francisco last week, leading many to expect another blowout.  Not so fast… look at the last few years of this rivalry.  Dating back to January of 2011, the Chargers and Broncos have played each other eight times, with the Broncos winning five of the eight matchups.  But here are the more important parts to note: 1) All three of San Diego’s wins were in Denver and 2) Denver’s only double-digit victory was a 35-24 win on October 15th, 2012.  With a talented offense that can stick with the Broncos, I like the Chargers to keep this game at a touchdown or less.  Take San Diego and the points.

Against the Spread: San Diego Chargers

Straight Up: Denver Broncos

Update: So much for stats and history…bravo, Peyton – Broncos 35, Chargers 21

Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons (+3.5)

The first thing to note is that this game isn’t taking place in Atlanta, but in London, which raises the question as to how each team will handle the travel.  The Lions pieced together a furious late comeback against the Saints last week, and continue to own the NFL’s top defense, allowing 290.3 ypg.  Calvin Johnson is still a question mark heading into Sunday, and his availability makes all the difference in this game (and the line).  Atlanta features a top five passing offense, but defensively has struggled, ranked 30th in both points and yards allowed.  Solid offense or not, Atlanta has struggled to score in recent weeks, and now faces that nasty Detroit ‘D’.  Cheers… Lions cover in London.

Against the Spread: Detroit Lions

Straight Up: Detroit Lions

Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5)

The Jags got into the win column last week, while the Dolphins posted a big win in Chicago.  As always, the Jags are interesting in the trenches, allowing the most sacks (29), while posting the second most, with 22.  But the Dolphins own the NFL’s fourth-ranked rushing offense and the fourth-best passing defense.  That combination should be enough to own the ground game, while forcing Jacksonville to lean more on its 30th ranked rushing offense.  Also, Miami is used to the warmer weather.  Dolphins cover.

Against the Spread: Miami Dolphins

Straight Up: Miami Dolphins

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)

A.J. Green still isn’t practicing and is a major question mark for Sunday’s game.  Green was the top receiver in the Week 1 matchup with Baltimore, where he reeled in 131 receiving yards.  Losing him will be a major hit on Cincy’s offense.  The Bengals are undefeated at home this season, posting a 2-0-1 record, but Cincy’s defense has allowed 107 points over its last three games.  The only way the Bengals back out of this rough patch is when the team gets Green back.  Assuming that he’s not playing, I’m taking the Ravens to win this one outright.

Against the Spread: Baltimore Ravens

Straight Up: Baltimore Ravens

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (+4.5)

The Seahawks were shocked last week by the Rams, falling to 3-3 on the season.  Some off-field distractions with Percy Harvin could have caused some unrest within the team.  But the Panthers are allowing opponents to convert on 48.4% of third downs (30th in NFL) and allow nearly 28 ppg.  The defending Super Bowl champs will be ready and focused, looking to get back on track.  I look at a Carolina defense that has allowed 15 TD’s through the air, while opposing QB’s have posted a 100.3 QB rating against them.  Expect a big day for Russell Wilson.  Seattle covers.

Against the Spread: Seattle Seahawks

Straight Up: Seattle Seahawks

Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)

Here’s one of the uglier games of the week.  The Bucs are coming off a bye and have had plenty of time to rest and prepare for Minnesota.  But this is a Tampa team that not only is last in total yards allowed and last against the pass, but also a team that has allowed 37 or more points three different times this season.    The Vikings have 20 sacks on the season and have the ability to provide pressure on opposing QB’s.  Also, rookie Teddy Bridgewater had success against another bad defense in Atlanta, and could have another solid day against Tampa Bay, while getting help from Jerick McKinnon, the explosive rookie running back.  I’ll take the Vikings to win this one outright on the road.

Against the Spread: Minnesota Vikings

Straight Up: Minnesota Vikings

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-3.5)

The Jets have had a few extra days to rest and prepare for this game, while the Bills come off an emotional last second win against the Vikings.  Both teams have the ability to rush the quarterback, with the Jets having 20 sacks (tied for 6th in NFL) and the Bills leading the league, with 24 sacks.  Buffalo saw both of its backs hurt last week, leaving Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown to carry the load.  For many, that would provide a major downgrade for the Bills, but Brown has showed some serious game in the past.  The Bills should try to attack New York’s weak passing defense, which has allowed 18 TD’s with just one interception.  Buffalo’s stout run ‘D’ will shut down what the Jets do best, and find a way to squeak out a victory on the road.

Against the Spread: Buffalo Bills

Straight Up: Buffalo Bills

St. Louis Rams at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5)

The Rams pulled off a shocker last week, upsetting the Seahawks at home, while the Chiefs managed some more Andy Reid bye week magic after beating the Chargers.  Austin Davis has been the surprise story for the Rams, drawing comparisons to former St. Louis great Kurt Warner.  Kansas City has held opponents to 33.8% of third downs converted, while also sporting the third best run game in the NFL, averaging more than 140 yards per game.  The Rams, meanwhile, are 28th against the run and still rank last in the NFL in sacks on opposing QB’s.  With the home field advantage, I like the Chiefs to control the game from the start.  K.C. covers.

Against the Spread: Kansas City Chiefs

Straight Up: Kansas City Chiefs

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (+1.5)

Zach Mettenberg gets the start for the Titans, while the Texans are on short rest after a difficult loss to the Steelers on Monday night.   One major key will be how the inexperienced Mettenberg can handle the pressure from J.J. Watt and Houston’s pass rush.  Plain and simple, while the Texans have had some mental lapses in recent weeks, I’m not one to hang my hat on a rookie quarterback, no matter how much hype he may or may not come with.  I like the Texans on the road.

Against the Spread: Houston Texans

Straight Up: Houston Texans

Chicago Bears at New England Patriots (-6.5)

Last week, reports swirled regarding some heated arguments in Chicago’s locker room.  Players refused to add fuel to the fire, and Brandon Marshall stated that he and Jay Cutler were good.  This will either fire the Bears up or send the team into a downward spiral.  With the Patriots up, it won’t get easier.  But as I stated last week, the Patriots are vulnerable in the run game, especially after Jerod Mayo was lost for the year.  That could lead to a big day for Matt Forte.  New England owns the NFL’s top pass defense, allowing just 208 ypg.  Facing a solid offense led by Cutler, Marshall, Jeffery and Forte, this will be a larger challenge when compared to past opponents (e.g. Oakland, Minnesota and the Jets).  For these reasons, I’m taking the Bears and the points.

Against the Spread:  Chicago Bears

Straight Up: New England Patriots

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)

I first wondered how the warmer weather would affect each team, especially with how Philly is in regards to its high-octane offense.  But the University of Phoenix Stadium in Arizona could be closed and air-conditioned, so it’s safe to leave that factor out.  The Eagles are coming off a bye and have had time to prepare for the talented Cardinals.  I expect this game to be high scoring, and in the end, I’m putting my focus on Philly’s bye week and extra prep time.  Eagles win by a field goal on the road.

Against the Spread: Philadelphia Eagles

Straight Up: Philadelphia Eagles

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5)

It’s a short week for the Steelers, who knocked out the Texans last Monday night.  Meanwhile, the Colts are one of the hottest teams in the NFL, owning the league’s top-rated passing offense (329.6 ypg) and fifth-rated pass defense.  That’s a tough combo to contend with, especially when you combine an Indianapolis defense that has 21 sacks and has held opponents to a 79.0 QB rating.  Sure, the Steelers are at home and yes, Pittsburgh has talent, but it’s hard to get too excited about a team that has struggled against the Jags, Bucs and Browns.  That, and with MVP-candidate Andrew Luck throwing for the opposing team, I like the Colts to cover on the road.

Against the Spread: Indianapolis Colts

Straight Up: Indianapolis Colts

Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-7.5)

Just when we started to consider hopping on the Cleveland bandwagon, the Browns go and lay a major stinker against the Jaguars.  This week, the Browns have a home game against another struggling team in the Raiders.  The home field advantage is one major key here, considering that Cleveland is 2-1 in front of its home fans, with wins over the Saints and Steelers.  Half of Oakland’s losses are by a touchdown or less, and Derek Carr is showing some growth.  In the end, the biggest key will be whether Oakland’s 29th ranked rushing defense will be able to handle Cleveland’s sixth-ranked rushing offense.  After Brian Hoyer’s performance last week, I have a hard time seeing the Browns run away with this one.  I’m taking Oakland and the points.

Against the Spread: Oakland Raiders

Straight Up: Cleveland Browns

Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (-1.5)

The Packers’ only two losses have come on the road, while the Saints’ only two wins are at home.  New Orleans is likely still stinging after losing a 13-point lead against Detroit with under four minutes to go.  This game could easily turn into a shootout, which means we should investigate each team’s defense a bit.  Rob Ryan’s defense has struggled, and is ranked 28th against the pass.  Translation: Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay’s passing game should have a field day on the turf in New Orleans.  Green Bay is red hot, and it’s hard to pick against them, when New Orleans is struggling.  Packers win on the road.

Against the Spread: Green Bay Packers

Straight Up: Green Bay Packers

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5)

The Redskins are a hot mess at the QB position.  Faith in RGIII was lost, and another injury arrived.  Then, Kirk Cousins was briefly the savior, only to falter and get benched.  Now, third-stringer and journeyman Colt McCoy is set to start, but only if RGIII isn’t healthy enough to return.  On the other side, the Cowboys are rolling.  DeMarco Murray is setting records and Tony Romo is as efficient as he has ever been.  What does that lead to?  A huge line in one of the biggest rivalries in sports.  The Redskins are a respectable 12th against the run, allowing just 3 TD’s on the ground.  Still, Murray has been unstoppable and McCoy on the Monday night stage doesn’t excite me.  Dallas covers at home.

Against the Spread: Dallas Cowboys

Straight Up: Dallas Cowboys

Bye Week: New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers

…..

THE WIFE

She HATES sports, but will pick teams in hopes of leading to your embarrassment.  No blurb, just her selection.  Heck, we’re lucky to get that much.

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-7.5) – Broncos

Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons (+3.5) – Falcons

Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5) – Dolphins

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) – Ravens

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (+4.5) – Seahawks

Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) – Bucs

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-3.5) – Jets

St. Louis Rams at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) – Chiefs

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (+1.5) – Titans

Chicago Bears at New England Patriots (-6.5) – Patriots

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) – Eagles

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) – Steelers

Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-7.5) – Browns

Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (-1.5) – Packers

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5) – Cowboys

…..

COIN FLIP

This quarter refuses to be referred to as “Chump change”… see what I did there?  Oh, and by the way, HEADS equals the HOME team, and TAILS is a vote for the AWAY team.

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-7.5) – Chargers

Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons (+3.5) – Lions

Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5) – Dolphins

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) – Ravens

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (+4.5) – Seahawks

Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) – Bucs

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-3.5) – Bills

St. Louis Rams at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) – Rams

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (+1.5) – Texans

Chicago Bears at New England Patriots (-6.5) – Patriots

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) – Cardinals

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) – Steelers

Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-7.5) – Browns

Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (-1.5) – Saints

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5) – Redskins

…..

SPORTSCHUMP’S “Hey, Whaddaya Know, He Had A Winning Week” Picks

SAN DIEGO +7 at DENVER

While NFL nation continues its weekly Peyton Manning love-fest, we have failed to notice that Philip Rivers and the San Diego Chargers are putting themselves together a fancy little season as well.  That was until they lost last week at home to the Kansas City Chiefs.  But does that loss really count?  After all they were going against the inexplicable magic that is Andy Reid after a bye week.  I guess that’s why we’ve also become so infatuated with Peyton.  All this guy does is throw touchdowns and make bad Papa John’s commercials. 

I like the Chargers but here’s what I don’t like.  They can’t run the football.  That means Rivers is going to have to air this thing out to move the chains.  Denver’s not great against the pass but they’re good enough that they should be able to step in front of an errant Rivers pass or two and return it to the house.  If San Diego can’t control the clock, that means they can’t keep Peyton Manning off the field and that doesn’t bode well for anyone.  Normally, I’d take the Chargers and a touchdown but this might be a game where the Broncos wants to put some distance between them and the San Diego in the AFC West.  The Denver crowd should be raucous this Thursday night so I’ll take Denver and lay the touchdown.

DETROIT -4 at ATLANTA (in England)

This game is being played in England which means no Brit will truly appreciate how bad these two teams are.  Seriously, if Commissioner Goodell really wants to generate interest in his sport across the pond, why are we sending them two crappy teams for their fans to watch?  Better yet, can we get them to stay there?  Or maybe we can just give them the Raiders and be done with all this England nonsense once and for all.  Detroit’s pretty banged up with neither Calvin Johnson nor Reggie Bush at 100%.  And after all, we did learn from the all-knowing Brad Pitt last week just how important Megatron is to Matthew Stafford.  Considering I know less about fooball than Brad Pitt does, which is why ESPN interviews him for his in-depth football perspective, I’m taking the Falcons and the four simply because I liked him in Se7en.  If this works out, I’ll be hitting up Angelina Jolie for her picks in Week Nine.

MINNESOTA +2.5 at TAMPA BAY 

This is one of the more winnable games on Tampa Bay’s schedule.  Of course, I’d feel a lot more comfortable if they were playing, let’s say, a high school team but Minnesota is as close to that as its comes.  Seriously, this is a game that should draw very little interest in the league and if the Bucs lose, fans in the bay area may lose interest in this team altogether.  These are tickets you can’t even give away.  Besides, it is now hockey season and we know how important hockey is in the South. 

The Buccaneers are one of the worst teams in the league yet I heard some local sports jockeys mentioning the P word on the radio the other day.  That’s right.  Playoffs?!?  Cue the Jim Mora rant.  If this team makes the playoffs, I will literally stand outside Raymond James stadium naked in a barrel professing my love for Lovie Smith.  Wait, that’s no threat.  I do that normally.  Even though they’re bad, I don’t know that this Buccaneers team is 1-15 bad.  It’s way more likely that they’re 2-14 bad which is why I like them to win this game and cover the three.

CHICAGO +6 at NEW ENGLAND 

I watched the Bears-Dolphins game last week.  WOW is Chicago bad!  No wonder there’s infighting in that locker room.  I’m surprised a certain Coach Ditka hasn’t stormed into that locker room to beat everyone’s ass.  You know he could too.  Only because these Bears never put up a fight.  ZING!  That team is on the verge of implosion and now they travel to New England where Tom Brady and company have a little something waiting for them. 

I’m leery about laying this many points against a team that has enough talent to regroup from an embarrassing loss but New England is also coming off a squeaker against the Jets.  They won’t take the Bears lightly.  So where does this leave us?  New England still has some key injuries but will that matter against a Chicago Bears team that’s more dysfunctional than a Kardashian family gathering?  Ya’ know what?  After watching what I watched last week, I can’t justify betting on the Bears.  I’ll take the Pats and lay the points and expect the complaints about Jay Cutler to continue for yet another week.

ST. LOUIS +6.5 at KANSAS CITY

If it were up to Andy Reid, he would only play eight games a season.  That way he could always play after a bye week.  The guy is an uncanny 14-2 after a week off.  But it would take a crack research team, one I can’t afford, to find out his record after the game after his bye week.  The Rams shocked the shit out of everyone last week by beating Seattle but now they go on the road for three straight games. 

Here’s what I don’t like about the Rams.  They’re horrible against the run.  They held Marshawn Lynch to only 53 yards on 18 carries but allowed Russell Wilson to get off for 103.  Alex Smith is no threat to run but KC, as always, has one of the nastiest rushing attacks in the league.  I like the Rams, particularly after last week, but I’m gonna go Chiefs here based on their ground game and St Louis’ inability to stop it.

SEATTLE -5.5 at CAROLINA

I don’t think I’ve picked a Carolina Panthers game right all season.  I only take comfort in the fact that I don’t think anyone else has either.  They started out the season 2-0 by beating both Tampa and Detroit then dropped their next two to Pittsburgh and Baltimore.  They played Cincinnati tough on the road then got waxed by Green Bay.  Trying to figure out which Carolina team will show up each week is like trying to get a kid to eat vegetables. 

Meanwhile, Seattle is really struggling.  A team we all thought would shuffle into the Super Bowl now has back-to-back losses.  Carolina desperately needs a win here to hold on to their ever slim lead in the worst division in football, the NFC South.  But can they get it against the defending champs?  Ya’ know what?  Both these teams are playing horribly right now but for some reason, I think the Panthers have enough fight in them to keep this one close.  I’ll go ahead and take the five-and-a-half here.

BUFFALO +3 at NY JETS

The Jets season just got a lot more interesting.  Christmas came early in New York as Rex Ryan has a brand new toy to play with.  He and his Jets became the winner of the Percy Harvin sweepstakes.  Percy was shipped out of the Seattle Seahawks locker room, I’d say for greener pastures but both those teams wear green.  A change of scenery could be exactly what this guy needs although being traded from the Super Bowl champs to the lowly New York Jets is like hitting the lottery but only being able to shop at the Dollar Store with your winnings.  The Jets desperately need a shot in the arm after losing six straight.  Harvin could be that shot.  Hosting the Bills could be just the jumpstart this horrific team needs.  Don’t get me wrong.  I don’t think Percy alone will turn around the Jets season but he should be enough to end their losing streak against Buffalo.  Give me Percy and the points here.

MIAMI -5 at JACKSONVILLE

Consider me a convert.  I’ve been discrediting the Miami Dolphins all season long and while beating a dysfunctional Bears team doesn’t rank among the greatest accomplishments in the history of the game, it’s still worthy enough to make me turn my head.  I can’t believe I’m saying this but this Dolphins team isn’t all that bad.  Or at least they weren’t against the Bears.  Now they take on the Jags who are like the Bears but much, much worse.  I like the Fish to go on the road here and cover against a Jags team, reminding them all the while they’re Florida’s best pro team.

HOUSTON -1 at TENNESSEE 

The Titans lost to (that team from) Washington last week.  That takes skill.  In fact, the Titans are so bad, not only did they provide (that team from) Washington with only their second win of the season, but they single-handedly allowed for the reemergence of Colt McCoy.  Seriously.  How does one make Colt McCoy look good?  Just when we thought the former Longhorn was going to star in that All State commercial where Matt Leinart, Heath Shuler and Brian Bosworth all go back to college, McCoy lands himself the starting gig in Washington.  Now how could anyone in their right mind bet on Tennessee after that?  Give me Houston here and let’s move on.

BALTIMORE (pick) at CINCINNATI

I think I’ve jinxed Cincinnati.  I bet against them to cover all season long and they did.  Then I switched gears and started betting on them to cover.  They proceed to lose two out of three.  Somebody get Marvin Lewis on the phone and have him convince me to bet on the Ravens.  Wait, Marvin Lewis still coaches that team, right?  Isn’t that amazing?  But I digress.  I’m not waiting on Marvin Lewis to call and I’m taking the Bengals in what should be another hard-fought AFC North game.

PHILADELPHIA +3 at ARIZONA  

I’m impressed with what Arizona is doing so far this season.  They’re leading the NFC West for crying out loud.  That being said, the Eagles, who we once thought were a lock to win the NFC East are looking up at a Cowboys team that is steadily starting to put some distance between themselves and the rest of the division.  The Eagles are coming off a bye week and should have Darren Sproles back from injury.  Assuming that’s the case, and how could my injury reports be wrong, I’ll go ahead and take the Eagles and the field goal.

INDIANAPOLIS -3 at PITTSBURGH

The Colts toughness train continues.  I’m riding Andrew Luck’s hot streak like a desperate guy at a craps table.  Come on, box cars!  (Get it?  Boxcars because Andrew Luck wears number 12?  Never mind.)  The Colts are quietly one of the best teams in the league.  The Steelers are not.  They’re still banged up defensively and are coming off a short week having played on Monday night.  That has to make Luck salivate.  I’ll take the Colts and lay as they continue to prove they’re the class of the league.      

OAKLAND +7 at CLEVELAND  

Can Oakland just quit already?  I mean, seriously.  I thought going to Buccaneers games was difficult.  Aside from the fun involved in dressing up in their spiked shoulder pads, chain mail and kitschy Kiss attire, why would a Raiders fan even watch their team play?  I wonder if the local face paint market is down due to lack of fan attendance.  Anyway, I’ll take Cleveland here.  I know they struggled last week having lost their center but it’s not like Oakland puts any pressure on the ball anyway. 

This is where I officially begin my “Just go ahead and take the team playing against Oakland and lay the points” campaign.  They’re the only team in the league to have not scored 100 points this season.  To put things in perspective, the Colts, Packers, Patriots, Broncos, Cowboys and Ravens have already scored twice that many.  I’ll take Cleveland and lay the seven in a game that is probably the first time in decades the Browns have laid that many points.  And they’ll cover to boot.

GREEN BAY +1.5 at NEW ORLEANS

Someone please remind me that these aren’t the Saints of a few years ago.  I keep expecting them to turn a corner and they never do.  Why am I so stubborn when it comes to New Orleans?  This team is winless on the road, having allowed more points than they’ve scored all season long.  Now comes Green Bay who can score at will.  What’s the over/under in this game?  85?  (Just joking.  It’s 56)   Ya’ know what?  Green Bay is hot as hell, toying with the more inferior teams in the league.  New Orleans qualifies as one of those teams but the TerrorDome is a tough place to play.  Give me the Saints and the point-and-a-half.  I told you I was stubborn.

WASHINGTON +9 at DALLAS

Remember how Colt McCoy was crying last week in (that team from) Washington’s post-game press conference?  He was grateful that he stuck with his convictions and that his new team had given him another chance to succeed in the league, blah blah blah.  This week, he’ll be crying for a different reason as he’s going up against the hottest team in the NFL. 

The Dallas Cowboys are 6-1 and feature one of the league’s most potent offenses, not to mention running backs.  Despite their 2-5 record, (that team from) Washington is actually decent against the run, which they’ll need to be if they stand any shot of beating Dallas and their workhorse DeMarco Murray.  The guy’s got more carries than your average NBA point guard.  And now comes word that Brian Orakpo is out for the season?  This one could get ugly.  Dallas covers and Colt McCoy’s agent makes that long-awaited phone call to Allstate.

…..

Special Guest: Lisa Horne (Visit Pigskin Grind!)

Yup, I feel out of my element picking the Pros but if I am really good at it, maybe I can smack talk more than usual. :-)

San Diego +8 at Denver

Denver is a tough place to play with the altitude and all but it’s not like it is snowing there. Broncos win but Chargers cover that spread by 1 point.

Detroit -3.5 at Atlanta

The Lions are on a two-game win streak and the Falcons stink—they’ve lost four in a row.

Minnesota +3 at Tampa Bay

Forget home field advantage in this game—will anyone show up for this contest? Quarterback Matt Cassel is out but the Vikings still have that stout defense.

New England -6 v Chicago

The Patriots look pretty suspect but Da Bears have not lived up to all the expectations. Cutler gonna do Cutler things, ie- seven picks so far this season.

Kansas City -7 v St. Louis

I’m going with the Chiefs for two reasons. 1- The Royals will break hearts everywhere (including mine) by losing the World Series so I have to support the city in another way and 2- KC seriously has the best BBQ around.

Seattle -5.5 at Carolina

The Seahawks are not a great road team but Carolina’s defense almost negates any home field advantage. Seattle squeaks by with the cover.

Buffalo +3 at New York (Jets)

The Jets’ six-game losing streak means I will pick against them every week. Ka-ching.

Miami -6 at Jacksonville

The Fins are 2-1 on the road which is pretty impressive. How can I root against Flipper?

Tennessee +2 v Houston

Quarterback Jake Locker is probable and that may or may not be a good thing. Deciding factor: I still can’t forget that meltdown the Texans had last week.

Cincinnati -1 v Baltimore

This is a pick game for all intents and purposes. Home field advantage will be the difference maker.

Philadelphia +2.5 v Arizona

I like the Cardinals’ defense but I just can’t bring myself to pick against the Oregon Ducks…errr….Eagles.

Pittsburgh +3 v Indianapolis

UPSET SPECIAL. I know, the Colts have a great offense. This is just a gut feeling.

Oakland +7 at Cleveland

The Raiders will cover. Disclaimer: I’m a member of Raider Nation.

Green Bay +1.5 at New Orleans

I’m more impressed with the Packers than I am with the Saints. Also, I like cheese.

Washington +9.5 at Dallas

Disclaimer: I’m also a Washington fan—do you feel sorry for me yet? Yes, Dallas is smoking hot but this is a rivalry game and weird things happen in these games, especially on a Monday Night Football broadcast. Dallas will win, but I think Washington gets a back door cover.