NFL Week 3 Picks: The Coin Flip is Turning Me into Two-Face

That dastardly, innocent looking coin went 25-7 against the spread during the opening two weeks of the 2015 NFL season.  What does the future hold when it comes to the NFL Week 3 Picks?

Seriously, Twenty-five and seven!

That’s a SIMPLE COIN FLIP – a little ol’ quarter – getting 78% of the picks correct in the first two weeks!  Heck, most people can’t even hit that mark straight up, let alone against the spread.

Well, that coin isn’t letting all this success get to its head (or its tail).

There are no endorsement deals rolling in, nothing from major banks or dollar stores.

Mr. Coin (when you go 25-for-32, you get to be called mister) continues to go about its business, and the whole ordeal is turning me into Two-Face.

“The coin is just a mad dog.  I want whoever let him off the leash”.

Oh wait, that was me.

So, for now – as I shift my life to leaving everything down to a 50/50 chance – burgers or brats, 17 or 22 for the Powerball, IPA or stout, ice cream or frozen yogurt – I’ll just have to live with my sub-.500 record.  For what it’s worth, I typically don’t start the season strong, considering the way I make picks (focusing on specific in-season team stats, etc.).

As for the coin, it’s already passed Dexy’s Midnight Runners and into two-hit wonder status.

“Too-ra-loo-ra, too-ra-loo-rye, aye”, what’s next, we’ll just have to wait and see – and that opens with this week’s slate of games, where the likes of Brandon Weeden and Jimmy Clausen will be the headlining quarterbacks for two marquee NFL franchises, the Dallas Cowboys and Chicago Bears.

Let’s move on and glance back at Week 2, while adding in the season standings:

Week 2:

KP (7-9), THE WIFE (8-8), Coin Flip (11-5), Sports Chump (6-10) and J-Dubs (5-11)

2015 Season:

Coin Flip (25-7), THE WIFE (16-16), KP (14-18), Special Guests (14-18) and Sports Chump (13-18-1)

NFL Week 3 Picks: Aaron Rodgers once again has the Packers pointed in the right direction

It’s once again time to “Pick Your Knows” – the only time it’s not a disgusting habit – and here are our NFL Week 3 Picks (with spreads as they appeared through CBS Sports on 9/23/15).

KP’s “Pick Your Knows”: 2015 NFL Week 3 Picks

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-3.5)

Something strange happened, almost like the NFC East got up on the wrong side of the bed.  The season started and it was the Dez, Tony and Jerry Show in Dallas, with a side of Chip Kelly’s offense.  Now some people think the RGIII-less-Redskins could quietly be the favorites.  The Redskins lead the NFL in rushing (171.5 ypg), while the Giants are likely to be without a few key pieces in its run D this week.  The key will be Washington slowing down Odell Beckham Jr., at least, as much as humanly possible.  Washington’s O-line is off to a solid start and Kirk Cousins has shown improvement this season.  Therefore, with a 3 1/2 point line, I like the ‘Skins, even on the road.  Take Washington and the points.

KP’s Pick: Washington Redskins

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Jeremy Hill’s performance last week was a head scratcher, and ugly for those that drafted him in the first round of Fantasy leagues (cough cough, I’m one of those people).  Now, it’s time for an AFC Central clash with Baltimore, a team that gave Denver a fight, then folded at the hands of the Raiders.  Yeah, I’m confused, too.  Joe Flacco has struggled a bit to start the season and could clearly use additional weapons on offense, like injured WR Breshad Perriman.  The teams have combined to allow two sacks on the season (B’More 2, Cincy 0) and that leads me to believe that each passer could have time to throw.  Most signs point to the Bengals, but Baltimore is really tough to beat at home.  Ravens by a FG.

KP’s Pick: Baltimore Ravens

San Diego Chargers at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)

The Chargers are traveling east again and have just one sack through two games, which could bode well for Teddy Bridgewater and the Vikings offense.  Then again, Minnesota only has two sacks, so forget the trenches.  What about Adrian Peterson, who was used more effectively in Week 2 (29 carries for 134 yards)?  The Giovani Bernard – Jeremy Hill combo ran 30 times for 162 yards last week against San Diego.  This is like tossing a slice of pie and a piece of cake in front of me.  I want to pick both.  Give me the Vikes a la mode, whatever that means.

KP’s Pick: Minnesota Vikings

Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-3.5)

The Browns will go back to Josh McCown at quarterback, leaving Johnny Manziel to ride the pine again.  Should this really affect how we feel about this game?  Only if you’re a Texas A&M alum.  You can’t trust either team here and both pulled off surprises last week.  Sure, Cleveland is at home and does have Joe Haden in the secondary.  When I see these two facing each other, I drop all analysis, babble for a few lines and then mutter the word “barnburner”.  Ahem, barnburner.  Take Oakland and the points.

KP’s Pick: Oakland Raiders

Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys (+1.5)

When the season started, this would have been coined as one of the must-see shootouts of the year.  But now, an injured Tony Romo is home making ‘crownies’, while Brandon Weeden will be leading the Dallas offense.  Atlanta is a little banged up, but not like the Cowboys, who will not have its starting QB (Romo) and top receiver (Dez Bryant).  Throw in a hefty dose of Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Roddy White and that alone will be too much for Brandon Weeden to keep up with.  Take the Falcons on the road with confidence.

KP’s Pick: Atlanta Falcons

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans (-6.5)

The Bucs went from hot mess to hot story after shocking Drew Brees and the Saints on the road last week.  The question will be how rookie Jameis Winston can handle the relentless pressure of J.J. Watt and the Houston defense.  Still, it should be noted that DeAndre Hopkins did not practice due to a concussion and Arian Foster is likely to be out another week.  The Bucs do have six sacks through two games and stats have shown that Ryan Mallett has struggled under pressure.  Oh, and Mike Evans should be back, too.  Call me crazy, but the Bucs keep this one close on the road.  Take Tampa and the points.

KP’s Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets (-2.5)

Let’s see, DeMarco Murray left practice this week with an injury, but hasn’t been posting any numbers anyway.  Chip Kelly’s offense is a flop to start the season and the Jets are… good?  New York trounced Cleveland in Week 1 and shutdown Andrew Luck and the Colts on Monday night.  But that’s just it, the Jets are playing on short rest and now will face off against the fast-paced Eagles.  Darrelle Revis is battling a groin injury and Eric Decker didn’t practice due to a knee injury.  The Jets have played well, but let’s not underestimate the Eagles just yet, especially considering the above injuries and short rest.  As part of my NFL Week 3 Picks, give me Philly on the road.

KP’s Pick: Philadelphia Eagles

Pittsburgh Steelers at St. Louis Rams (+1.5)

The Rams managed six sacks against the Seahawks, then followed that with a trampling at the hands of Washington’s two-headed monster (Morris and Jones).  It won’t get any easier, now that the Steelers have Le’Veon Bell back from suspension.  Bell could be a bit rusty, but Pittsburgh still has Antonio Brown, Ben Roethlisberger and the second ranked passing offense (349.5 ypg).  In a tossup, give me the strength of Pittsburgh’s ‘O’ on the road.

KP’s Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-3.5)

Drew Brees is the real question mark here and the New Orleans QB is confident that he will suit up on Sunday.  But will he be 100%?  More importantly, will they have to pull that commercial if Luke McCown starts?  I kid.  Cam Newton and the Carolina offense still isn’t all that, but the SportsChump makes me submit all my picks prior to the Thursday game, so you can blame him if this one is wrong.  I’ll take Carolina, assuming Drew Brees isn’t healthy enough to push New Orleans consistently down the field.

KP’s Pick: Carolina Panthers

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (+4.5)

Andrew Luck and the Colts are floundering offensively, while the Titans came back to Earth a bit in Week 2, falling to the Browns 28-14 (they trailed 21-0 at half).  Indy’s big issues have been turnovers and injuries (especially in the secondary).  The Colts also only have one sack through two games.  Still, I expect Andrew Luck to right the ship eventually – and we will reach “eventually” this week.  Colts cruise on the road.

KP’s Pick: Indianapolis Colts

Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-13.5)

The Jags are no pushover and proved that last week in a surprising win over the Dolphins.  Still, this is the Patriots playing at home and Tom Brady (7 TD, 0 INT) has the New England passing game on top of the NFL (366 ypg).  More notable is New England’s 11 sacks through two games (most in NFL), which could mean trouble for Blake Bortles and a Jacksonville line that has given up five sacks through the first two weeks.  I’m tempted to take the Jags with this line, but it just seems silly when the Patriots are at home and playing in midseason form.  With confidence in my NFL Week 3 Picks, the Pats cover, win by two TD’s.

KP’s Pick: New England Patriots

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5)

Carlos Hyde left last week’s game and was evaluated for a possible concussion.  His potential absence is a headache for Niners fans, especially traveling on the road to Arizona, where the Cardinals are tough to beat.  Carson Palmer has been on fire through two games and will be facing a San Francisco defense that is ranked 26th against the pass, while also allowing a league-high 10.2 yards per play through the air.  The Niners also played more like people expected they would in Week 2.  Give me the Cards, who will be playing with a full deck.  Yeah, my jokes are that bad.

KP’s Pick: Arizona Cardinals

Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks (-14.5)

It took a few glances to make sure that the Seahawks were indeed favored by 14 1/2 points, despite starting the season 0-2.  Then reality set in, a reality that featured the 12th man in Seattle and Jimmy Clausen running a Chicago offense that also has its top two receivers (Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal) not practicing on Wednesday, due to injuries.  Suddenly, that line doesn’t seem so large.  Seattle wins big at home.

KP’s Pick: Seattle Seahawks

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-2.5)

The Dolphins are 1-1, but have struggled in the opening two weeks.  Rex Ryan talks more than Donald Trump and that came back to bite him against New England.  Dating back to the 2011 season, the home team in this series has only lost twice.  Tyrod Taylor has been a pleasant surprise for Buffalo, but I’m going to stick to the home team trend.  That, plus Ryan Tannehill is due for a breakout game.  Give me the Fish at home.

KP’s Pick: Miami Dolphins

Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions (+3.5)

Peyton Manning proved his doubters wrong last week, executing a perfect two-minute drill in a dramatic victory in Kansas City.  The Broncos get a few extra days to prepare for the Lions, while Detroit is likely to have Matthew Stafford, but perhaps not at 100% (due to a rib injury).   Detroit finally gets a home game, but again, it’s against a rejuvenated Peyton Manning.  Denver’s biggest question mark has been its offensive line, but the Lions have just three sacks in two weeks, and opposing QB’s have posted a 108.8 QB rating against them.  With those numbers in mind, give me Peyton and the Broncos.

KP’s Pick: Denver Broncos

Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)

Snow or shine, the Packers are painfully difficult to beat at home.  Aaron Rodgers continues to be deadly, despite not having Jordy Nelson as an offensive weapon.  Eddie Lacy is questionable with an ankle injury, but James Starks is capable of stepping up in his absence.  K.C. is second only to the Patriots in sacks (8 in two games), but Green Bay has only allowed two in the first two contests.  It’s a rarity that I would pick against Rodgers and the Packers at Lambeau, and I’m sticking with that plan today.  Green Bay by a touch.

KP’s Pick: Green Bay Packers

THE WIFE

She HATES sports, but will pick teams in hopes of leading to your embarrassment (and there was plenty of that last year).  No blurb, just her NFL Week 3 Picks, and we’re lucky to get that much!

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-3.5) – Giants

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) – Bengals

San Diego Chargers at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) – Vikings

Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-3.5) – Browns

Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys (+1.5) – Cowboys

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans (-6.5) – Texans

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets (-2.5) – Eagles

Pittsburgh Steelers at St. Louis Rams (+1.5) – Steelers

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-3.5) – Saints

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (+4.5) – Titans

Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-13.5) – Patriots

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) – Cardinals

Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks (-14.5) – Seahawks

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-2.5) – Dolphins

Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions (+3.5) – Broncos

Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers (-6.5) – Packers

COIN FLIP – NFL Week 3 Picks

This quarter refuses to be referred to as “Chump change”… see what I did there?  Oh, and by the way, HEADS equals the HOME team, and TAILS is a vote for the AWAY team.

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-3.5) – Redskins

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) – Ravens

San Diego Chargers at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) – Vikings

Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-3.5) – Browns

Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys (+1.5) – Falcons

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans (-6.5) – Buccaneers

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets (-2.5) – Eagles

Pittsburgh Steelers at St. Louis Rams (+1.5) – Rams

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-3.5) – Panthers

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (+4.5) – Colts

Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-13.5) – Jaguars

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) – 49ers

Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks (-14.5) – Bears

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-2.5) – Dolphins

Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions (+3.5) – Lions

Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers (-6.5) – Packers

SPORTSCHUMP’S NFL Week 3 Picks

My long-time friend seeking revenge, after last year’s debacle.  Here are the Chump’s Week 3 selections, and you best go check out his site, too.

Washington Redskins at NY Giants (- 4)

There’s really two ways to bet football games.  You can bet with trends or against them.  One would think betting with trends is the more lucrative option.  We shall soon see.  One might look at these Giants and see they are clearly due to turn things around (against the trend).  Another might look at these Giants and realize they simply can’t close out football games (with the trend).  The Redskins shocked the hell out of everybody last week by beating the Rams.  The Giants are banged up and with no Victor Cruz still only have one viable option at wide receiver: Odell Beckham, Jr.  That being said, the Giants have too much talent to start the season 0-3.  I’ll take the G-Men at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers at St Louis Rams (+1)

Wow, these Steelers can really score.  When’s the last time you remember the Steelers scoring 43 points in a football game, especially against a 49ers team we thought after Week One was going to be solid defensively.  The Rams are solid defensively or so we thought.  We’ll find out Sunday afternoon whether they’re able to stop Pittsburgh and their multiple weapons.  I talked to a Ravens fan earlier this week and the mere mention of the Steelers being good gave him fits.  I’m with the trend here as I plan to ride out this Steelers train until they don’t cover.  Give me the Steelers on the road.

San Diego Chargers at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)

Remember last week when I talked about how bad Teddy Bridgewater was?  Apparently, that’s just another thing in this league that I have literally no clue about.  Normally I would take the Chargers this week:  Rivers over Bridgewater in a wash.  But that would be going against the trend.  Fuck it, give me San Diego and the points anyway.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans (-6.5)

What about the Houston Texans leads one to believe they can beat anybody by a touchdown?  They don’t have a quarterback.  Wait, I take that back.  They have two quarterbacks and they both suck.  Ryan Mallett couldn’t complete a pass last week to a horny girl hopped up on Rufinol while the Bucs got off the snide and finally won a game.  I’m looking forward to seeing JJ Watt welcome Jameis Winston into the league.  Hopefully it won’t be the same rude welcome PacMan Jones gave Amari Cooper.  The Bucs looked decent enough on the road last week to cover six-and-a-half points against a really bad team.  I’ll take Tampa Bay.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets (-2.5)

See, this is why I absolutely hate picking every game every week.  Remind me never to do this again.  I have a much better plan for next year.  Sshhh, it’s a secret.  I have no clue about this game because once again… trends.  The Jets looked invincible last week against a high-powered offense.  The Eagles are supposed to be a high-powered offense.  The Eagles going 0-3 might cause Pope Francis to book an earlier flight out of Philadelphia.  I may kick myself here but I’m going against the trend.  This is the week the Eagles finally figure it out, by giving the ball to DeMarco Murray 27 times and letting him grind out a victory.  Did you see Murray stare down Sam Bradford on the sidelines last week?  Yeah, he’s getting the ball this week.  Give me the Eagles and the points.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-3)

I think Drew Brees is out this week with old age.  Not that it would matter.  The Bucs had his number last Sunday so just imagine what a 2-0 Panthers team will do.  I think these Saints are in trouble and three isn’t too much to lay here.  I’m actually surprised this line is that small which might signify a trap.  Still, from what I saw from the Saints, they were just bad.  Give me the Panthers at home to cover.

Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-13.5)

This just seems unfair.  The Patriots are playing insanely well and while the Jags did just beat the Dolphins, they shouldn’t have to travel to New England to play probably the best team in the league.  Back to life, back to reality for the Jags.  I don’t think even Blake Bortles’ mom is giving her son’s team a chance against the Deflatriots.  But can they keep it respectable?  I say no.  Pats cover.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)

The Ravens are getting to the meat of their AFC North schedule, much to the chagrin of the angry Ravens fan I mentioned earlier.  I told him not to worry, that things would even out this week.  They do.  Ravens cover at home and get a much-needed victory.

Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-3.5)

Think there will be anyone at this game?  I mean, if I told you I had two free tickets to this weekend’s Raiders-Browns game, would you go or would you need a hellacious buzz before thinking about it.  Of course you’d go.  It’s a free ticket to see Johnny Manziel.  You’d be nuts not to.  And this Brownies defense is pretty good.  They’ll need to be to stop a Raiders offense that scored 37 last week.  Apparently the motivational story of Johnny Manziel has inspired the rest of the Browns locker room.  I guess they like hearing sordid tales about Justin Bieber and Floyd Mayweather.  “This one time… in Vegas.”  Either way, I’m a sucker for a good motivational story.  Give me the Browns to cover.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (+3)

Trends.  Do a pissed off Andrew Luck and company right the ship this week after a woeful performance on Monday night or is there really something wrong with that team?  There is something wrong with that team but it won’t show this week at Tennessee.  NFL Week 3 Picks: I like Indy to cover.

Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys (+2)

No’ mo, Romo.  It sure seems like I say that a lot.  Romo’s out at least half the season with a broken clavicle, meaning Brandon Wheeden will take over.  The Cowboys just traded for Matt Cassel but it’s unlikely he’ll see any action considering he doesn’t know the playbook.  The Falcons?  Well, they’re good and a Romo-less Cowboy team couldn’t come at a better time.  I would dare to venture everyone thinks the Falcons are just going to waltz into Dallas Stadium, win and cause panic mode in the Big D but I have faith that this Cowboys team is still decent, even without Tony Romo and Dez Bryant.  Who am I kidding?  Falcons go into Dallas and continue their win streak causing Jerry Jones to pop into Cassel’s hotel room every five minutes asking “You learn that playbook yet?”

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5)

Did you know that in the first two games of the season, the Cardinals have scored more points than any other team in the league?  Did you know the Niners allowed 40+ last week to the Steelers?  FYI, the over/under is 44 which tells me they think this game will be somewhat close.  I’m not buying it.  I’ll take the Cards at home to cover this week simply because I don’t think San Fran can score with one of the most under-appreciated teams in the league.

Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks (-14.5)

This one has all the makings of a game gone ugly and it’s not just because Jay Cutler is out.  The Bears would get trounced even if he were healthy, probably more so.  Kam Chancellor is back and just in time to feast on (sorry, Bears fans) one of the worst teams in the league.  Things are so bad in Chicago, they’re wishing they had Lovie Smith back.  Jimmy Clausen is starting this week.  I bet he wishes he wasn’t.  Rest assured this game will be the first one turned off this weekend, especially by Bears fans.  Seattle covers.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-3)

Good game.  The fish are coming off a loss to Jacksonville.  Another loss puts them well behind in this division.  The same goes for Rex Ryan and his Bills.  Whoever loses this football game will have a tough time climbing out of the AFC East cellar.  I’m going to take Buffalo here only because I haven’t heard a Bon Jovi song in a while.

Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions (+3)

The Lions could be in trouble.  Matthew Stafford was beaten up more last week than a geek in high school.  A guy who was once owned in every fantasy league is barely started.  He’s questionable in real life too.  Denver is coming off a long week and a high from a game they had no business winning.  They don’t take any chances in Detroit, kicking a Lions team while they’re down.  Give me the Broncos and the trend.

Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)

This should be a great Monday night game.  Green Bay is coming off a Sunday night game so they’ll be used to the prime time.  Kansas City is coming off a long week of stewing about their loss in prime time to the Broncos.  Trends.  Do they have enough to right that ship after fumbling it away or does their trend continue?  NFL Week 3 Picks: I’ll take KC and the points for no real reason and hope for the best.

Special Guest: Bleed

Here are a few NFL Week 3 Picks from Bleed, who is a friend from back in our blogging days.  The rest of his selections are over at Sports Chump…

Falcons @ Cowboys

Battle of the unbeatens comes down to Romo…Or lack thereof.  As much flak as he takes, dude can play some football…And Brandon Weeden is Brandon Weeden. Frankly I’m surprised the dirty birds are only favored by 2. I’ll take that 2 and raise you a Matty Ice and Julio Jones.

ATLANTA

Jaguars @ Patriots

Deflate the score by 13.5 points before it even starts? Meh. Brady in Foxborough. Nuff said.

PATS

Eagles @ Jets

Jets are soaring, Eagles are floundering. My gut tells me Chip Kelly has some wild schemes he’s going to bust out in desperation to avoid an 0-3 hole, but my head tells me NY is actually a solid team with Ryan Fitzpatrick playing well, Brandon Marshall in a zone and Darrelle Revis proving once again that he’s still the best DB in the game. The Vegas oddsmakers seem to agree with my head as they’re favoring NY by 2.5. That’s all the convincing I need.

JETS

Who do you have with your NFL Week 3 Picks?